The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
Previous studies in Euro-American countries have shown that patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection have increased levels of neuropsychiatric symptoms. While chronic hepatitis C virus infection has been reported in Arab countries such as Iraq, there is little studies about the neuropsychological burden associated with chronic hepatitis C among patients in the Arab region. The aim of the current study was to measure the prevalence and level of severity of depression, anxiety and stress among a sample of chronic hepatitis C patients in AL-Najaf province /Iraq. The current study was cross-sectional study carried out on (110) already diagnosed chronic viral hepatitis C patients who attended the Gastroenterology and Hepatology
... Show MoreThe problem of housing in Iraq is a long-rooted and rooted problem, and it needs a great effort to find out its causes and thus give essential points that contribute to alleviating and addressing it, and it is worth noting that research into the housing problem and the housing sector in Iraq is not done in isolation from other sectors and studies. As well as the economic policies pursued and the social and political conditions. It is known that the Iraqi economy is a unilateral (rentier) economy, that is, it depends almost entirely on exporting oil and obtaining revenues, and that the economic decision and economic policies followed in Iraq are greatly affected by several factors, including the economic, social and political fact
... Show MoreAfter 2003, Iraq witnessed new challenges represented by the predominance of sectarian discourses, hatred and extremism at the expense of moderate political discourse and the predominance of sub-affiliations and external agendas at the expense of national affiliation, which led to the creation of an unsafe or stable environment dominated by the character of violence and terrorism. Moderate discourse would work to fuse sub-affiliations into one melting pot in which it would be the first loyalty to the homeland and not to the tribe, party or sect... Etc., and this in turn will contribute to promoting peaceful coexistence between the various other sub-affiliations within the framework of one community construction
The social contract represents a set of laws and determinants agreed upon by a group of individuals in order to organize society for the better.This agreement guarantees them to live in peace according to the pre-agreed laws, and on the basis of that, it represents the key to resolving the crisis relations between the state and society, and this is what prompted Iraqi society to move towards the formulation of a new social contract through popular protest movements in 2019.To overcome the old social contract that shook the trust between the state and society as a result of its negative outputs at various political, economic and social levels, and many problems emerged that hindered the process of building the social contra
... Show MoreCaffeine (1,3,7-trimethylxanthine), which is the most widely consumed stimulant in the world, had been isolated and estimated gravimetrically in fifteen different commercial kinds of tea found in the Iraqi market.The kinds of tea were chosen according to their differences in the degree of fermentation and the method of processing i.e. black , gray and green . The isolated caffeine was identified by melting point, sublimation, TLC, chemical tests, UV , IR , HPLC and CHNO analysis. &nb
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Background: The overproduction of thyroid hormones is known as hyperthyroidism. Increased susceptibility to caries and periodontal disease are two potential oral symptoms. The interleukin-6 (IL-6) was observed to significantly increased in the hyperthyroid group. According to multiple research, IL-6 dysregulation has been linked to a number of oral disorders, including periodontal diseases. The study aimed to evaluate periodontal health status in relation to IL6 among hyperthyroidism patients. Subjects and Methods: The sample was composed of 90 female patients aged 25-45 years attending endocrine disorder |
In this research, we find the Bayesian formulas and the estimation of Bayesian expectation for product system of Atlas Company. The units of the system have been examined by helping the technical staff at the company and by providing a real data the company which manufacturer the system. This real data include the failed units for each drawn sample, which represents the total number of the manufacturer units by the company system. We calculate the range for each estimator by using the Maximum Likelihood estimator. We obtain that the expectation-Bayesian estimation is better than the Bayesian estimator of the different partially samples which were drawn from the product system after it checked by the
... Show MoreThe Internet is providing vital communications between millions of individuals. It is also more and more utilized as one of the commerce tools; thus, security is of high importance for securing communications and protecting vital information. Cryptography algorithms are essential in the field of security. Brute force attacks are the major Data Encryption Standard attacks. This is the main reason that warranted the need to use the improved structure of the Data Encryption Standard algorithm. This paper proposes a new, improved structure for Data Encryption Standard to make it secure and immune to attacks. The improved structure of Data Encryption Standard was accomplished using standard Data Encryption Standard with a new way of two key gene
... Show MoreThree isolates of P. aeruginosa were isolated from burnt patients. The ability of these isolates for adhesion and formation of slime layer were tested, the result showed that all isolates were able to adherence on the smooth surface. The sensitivity of P. aeruginosa isolates for antibiotics were tested , all isolates were sensitive to Gentamycin, Piperacillin and Amikacin Ciprofloxacin, and resist to Tetracyclin, Amoxicillin, Cephalexine , Ceftriaxone. Ciprofloxacin and Amikacin were found effective against P. aeruginosa isolates with MIC values of 3.8 μg/ ml for Ciprofloxacin and 0.244 μg/ ml for Amikacin The antibacterial effect of Different concentrations of Aloe
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