The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
The political situation experienced by Iraq before the events of 2003 that led to the collapse of infrastructure. rebuilding costs were estimated after 2003 by187(million USD) according to the estimates of the basic needs as stated in Five-Year Plan 2010-2014. The difficult in financing projects and the continuous demands for maintenance and operating cost, and working by contemporary styles in different countries, the strategic option is to adopt the government entering the private sector as a partner in the development process. Since public _private partnership (PPP's) is at a germinating stage of development in Iraq, it has been studied the critical success factors(CSF's) in the experiences of countries that have implemented the style
... Show MoreThe road network serves as a hub for opportunities in production and consumption, resource extraction, and social cohabitation. In turn, this promotes a higher standard of living and the expansion of cities. This research explores the road network's spatial connectedness and its effects on travel and urban form in the Al-Kadhimiya and Al-Adhamiya municipalities. Satellite images and paper maps have been employed to extract information on the existing road network, including their kinds, conditions, density, and lengths. The spatial structure of the road network was then generated using the ArcGIS software environment. The road pattern connectivity was evaluated using graph theory indices. The study demands the abstractio
... Show MoreThe road network serves as a hub for opportunities in production and consumption, resource extraction, and social cohabitation. In turn, this promotes a higher standard of living and the expansion of cities. This research explores the road network's spatial connectedness and its effects on travel and urban form in the Al-Kadhimiya and Al-Adhamiya municipalities. Satellite images and paper maps have been employed to extract information on the existing road network, including their kinds, conditions, density, and lengths. The spatial structure of the road network was then generated using the ArcGIS software environment. The road pattern connectivity was evaluated using graph theory indices. The study demands the abstraction and examin
... Show MoreThe yellow scale insect
The phenomenon of young people frequenting closed cafes spread in Baghdad to smoke hookahs and cigarettes has increased. This phenomenon is associated with unemployment, an increase in leisure time and the deterioration of economic conditions. This phenomenon has an impact on indoor air quality and exposes workers to the risk of exposure to various pollutants, including particulate matter, therefore, we examined some indicators (PM2.5, PM10) IAQ for a month in summer and another month in winter in six different locations in the Rusafa district. PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations, relative humidity (RH) and temperatures were measured using (Multifunction Air Quality Detector BENETECH -China). The results showed an increase in temperatures inside
... Show MoreThe liver (hepatic) is one of the largest glands or organs of the digestive system in the body of living organisms, including rodents, take the squirrel in this study for example. The study and the collection of sources emerged to be put into the hands of those, especially those interested in histological studies, including junior or professionals and veterinarians, knowledge of the stains used in the research and their final results.
This research aims to estimate production functions through which production relations, possibilities for production elements substitution, measurement of its substitution elasticity, and efficiency and distribution coefficients can be analyzed. This would be done through estimation of constant elasticity of substitution production function for agricultural companies in Iraq depending on data from Iraqi Stock Exchange reports of 2005-2016. The researcher had used panel data model and estimated its three models: the Pooled Regression Model (PRM), the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and the Random Effect Model (REM). A comparison was made for theses three models using F, LM, Husman tests. Tests show that Fixed Effect Model (FEM) is the best
... Show MoreBones were recorded in the skeleton of some species of Iraqi turtle Mauremys rivulata; the objectives of this study came in light of current conditions, environmental developments, talents and techniques of biological studies taking place in the country, need for an anatomy guide in river turtles of Iraqi species, to identify all kinds of similarities and differences with their preaching, this work or study has become written in response to those modern needs. It is designed to be one of the resources for those interested in biological studies, beginners or professionals, and veterinarians, distinguishing them from marine and global species. Turtles were dissected in the laboratories of the Research Center and Museum of Natural Hist
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Measurement of radon concentration level was carried out in 40 houses in Al – Najaf city during summer season of 2012. Long term measurement of indoor of old building radon concentrations have been taken, using a previously calibrated passive diffusion dosimeters containing CR – 39 solid state nuclear track detectors which are very sensitive for alpha particles. The measurement of the indoor radon concentration obtained in summer in these regions ranged from 11.654±4.216 Bq.m-3 to 53.610±8.777 Bq.m-3. The results were within universally permitted levels. |
This paper presents a statistical study for a suitable distribution of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq
Using two types of distributions for the period (2005-2015). The researcher suggested log normal distribution, Mixed exponential distribution of each rovince were tested with the distributions to determine the optimal distribution of rainfall in Iraq. The distribution will be selected on the basis of minimum standards produced some goodness of fit tests, which are to determine
Akaike (CAIC), Bayesian Akaike (BIC), Akaike (AIC). It has been applied to distributions to find the right distribution of the data of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq was used (maximu
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