The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast the white oil during the period (2012-2019) using volatility GARCH-class. After showing that squared returns of white oil have a significant long memory in the volatility, the return series based on fractional GARCH models are estimated and forecasted for the mean and volatility by quasi maximum likelihood QML as a traditional method. While the competition includes machine learning approaches using Support Vector Regression (SVR). Results showed that the best appropriate model among many other models to forecast the volatility, depending on the lowest value of Akaike information criterion and Schwartz information criterion, also the parameters must be significant. In addition, the residuals don’t have the serial correlation and ARCH effect, as well as these models, should have a higher value of log-likelihood and SVR-FIGARCH models managed to outperform FIGARCH models with normal and student’s t distributions. The SVR-FIGARCH model exhibited statistical significance and improved accuracy obtained with the SVM technique. Finally, we evaluate the forecasting performance of the various volatility models, and then we choose the best fitting model to forecast the volatility for each series, depending on three forecasting accuracy measures RMSE, MAE, and MAPE.
In this research, we find the Bayesian formulas and the estimation of Bayesian expectation for product system of Atlas Company. The units of the system have been examined by helping the technical staff at the company and by providing a real data the company which manufacturer the system. This real data include the failed units for each drawn sample, which represents the total number of the manufacturer units by the company system. We calculate the range for each estimator by using the Maximum Likelihood estimator. We obtain that the expectation-Bayesian estimation is better than the Bayesian estimator of the different partially samples which were drawn from the product system after it checked by the
... Show MoreExperiment was conducted in Baghdad, three factor were used in this research included Two types of Plows included moldboard and disk plows which represented the main plot, Three forward speeds of the tillage was the second factor included 1.85, 3.75 and 5.62 km / h which represented sup plot , and Three levels of Soil Moisture was third factor included 21, 18 and 14 % in all of Vertical and Lateral Plowing Deviation, Practical and specific productivity, actual time for plowing one donam and appearance (goodness) of Tillage represented by the number of clods > 10 cm in silt clay loam soil with depth 22 cm were studied. the experiment was used Split – split plot design under randomized complete block design with three replications and Le
... Show MoreThe Iraqi economy has suffered for a long period of inflation because of the Iraq war and the resolutions and the sanctions that were imposed on Iraq, this phenomenon overshadowed at various aspects of the economy including the tax revenue that the State seeks to optimize the total income for the budget, the research covers the years 1990-2010, these years have been divided according to the country's economic variables.
The research adopted on econometrics analysis that is based on the information and data available on topics and has been using statistical methods to test functions are formulated.
Research concluded that rates of inflation and GDP impact is limited to direct taxation and indirect in current prices a
... Show MoreMultilayer reservoirs are currently modeled as a single zone system by averaging the reservoir parameters associated with each reservoir zone. However, this type of modeling is rarely accurate because a single zone system does not account for the fact that each zone's pressure decreases independently. Pressure drop for each zone has an effect on the total output and would result in inter-flow and the premature depletion of one of the zones. Understanding reservoir performance requires a precise estimation of each layer's permeability and skin factor. The Multilayer Transient Analysis is a well-testing technique designed to determine formation properties in more than one layer, and its effectiveness over the past two decades has been
... Show MoreIn some cases, researchers need to know the causal effect of the treatment in order to know the extent of the effect of the treatment on the sample in order to continue to give the treatment or stop the treatment because it is of no use. The local weighted least squares method was used to estimate the parameters of the fuzzy regression discontinuous model, and the local polynomial method was used to estimate the bandwidth. Data were generated with sample sizes (75,100,125,150 ) in repetition 1000. An experiment was conducted at the Innovation Institute for remedial lessons in 2021 for 72 students participating in the institute and data collection. Those who used the treatment had an increase in their score after
... Show MoreAbstract: Israel formulated its security theory, which it established on the "pretext of war", meaning converting any Arab action that Israel deems a threat to its security, into a pretext to ignite the fuse of war, considering this a violation of an existing situation, and then it initiates preventive and pre-emptive attacks, then immediately turns into transfer the war to the enemy's land, to achieve a quick solution by (destroying the enemy), occupying its lands, and benefiting of the advantage of working on (internal lines against an enemy) working on external lines, and ending the war quickly, before the major powers intervene to impose a ceasefire
The region of Kirkuk and its surrounding areas, including (Baba, Jambour, Qara Chuq, Qaiyarah, Demir Dagh, Bai Hassan, Taq Taq, Makhul, Gilabat as well as southern Mosul and the cities of Erbil and Sulymania, are known as one of the oldest discovered oil fields in northern Iraq. This area presents a significant opportunity for further organic geochemical analysis to describe maturation zones and estimate economically generated hydrocarbons with particular reference to the Sargelu formation, to enhance hydrocarbons productivity. To assess the potential of these oil fields, it is essential to perform correlation, comparisons, and geochemical analyses of the data collected from exploration wells in the surrounding area. This appro
... Show MoreThe sediments of the Hartha Formation were deposited during the Upper Campanian- Maastrichtian cycle. Due to the importance of this sequence in terms of stratification and economics in the oil industry, it has been focused on in this study. The present study includes three oil fields in central of Iraq within the Mesopotaminan Zone, East Baghdad, Balad and Kifl oil fields. This study was accomplished by describing 190 thin sections and interpreting the response of the available well logging data. Seven major microfacies were diagnosed in the Hartha succession at studied oil fields, they are; Orbitoidal wackestone - packstone, Orbitoidal and miliolids wackestone, Rotaliidae and Siderolites with echinodermata wackestone - packstone,
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