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DYNAMIC MODELING OF TIME-VARYING ESTIMATION FOR DISCRETE SURVIVAL ANALYSIS FOR DIALYSIS PATIENTS IN BASRAH, IRAQ
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Survival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other method was represented by the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (HMCMC). Moreover, two hazard function models were considered in the comparison: the Logistic model and the discrete Cox model. Two criteria were used for comparisons Average Mean Square Error: AMSE and Cross Entropy Error: CEE. All these four combinations of methods were clarified via the discussion of the numerical results with their explanations. It can be noticed the superiority of HMCMC method through the two hazard models.

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Publication Date
Fri May 08 2026
Journal Name
Statistics, Optimization & Information Computing
A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic rela

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2025
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Insects Infestation for Plants of Fabaceae in Different Areas in Iraq
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Abstract<p>In this study, 191 specimens of insects that infect species of the Fabaceae family, including: <italic>Pisum sativum</italic> L. (1753), <italic>Lens esculenta</italic> Moench (1794) and <italic>Vigna unguiculata</italic> subsp. <italic>sesquipedalis</italic> (L.) Verdc. (1763), <italic>Vicia faba</italic> L. (1753), <italic>Phaseolus vulgaris</italic> L. (1753), <italic>Medicago sativa</italic> L. (1753), <italic>Trifolium campestre</italic> Schreb. (1804), were collected from four governorates: Baghdad, Karbala, Wasit, and Anbar. Four orders, five families, 17 species belonging to 10 genera have been ide</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Useing the Hierarchical Cluster Analysis and Fuzzy Cluster Analysis Methods for Classification of Some Hospitals in Basra
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In general, the importance of cluster analysis is that one can evaluate elements by clustering multiple homogeneous data; the main objective of this analysis is to collect the elements of a single, homogeneous group into different divisions, depending on many variables. This method of analysis is used to reduce data, generate hypotheses and test them, as well as predict and match models. The research aims to evaluate the fuzzy cluster analysis, which is a special case of cluster analysis, as well as to compare the two methods—classical and fuzzy cluster analysis. The research topic has been allocated to the government and private hospitals. The sampling for this research was comprised of 288 patients being treated in 10 hospitals. As t

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis the Impact of Corruption on Investment in Iraq
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There are different types of corruptions such as administrative, political, economic and financial corruption. The corruption forms also varied such as bribery, nepotism and extortion. All types and forms of corruption play significant role in the all economic variables generally and on investments in particular, and the corruption used to be an intermediate means in reducing the rate of economic growth.  The corruption contributes in reducing the domestic investments via pay bribery by investors to officials’ persons for supplemental contracts and tenders which finally leads to reduction in the investment efficiency. The corruption also contributes in rise of operational costs for the investment projects.  In additio

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Extraction and estimation of curcumin compounds from turmeric (Curcuma longa) rhizomes by using different variables (solvent, time and temperature).
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The study aimed to investigate the effect of different times as follows 0.5, 1.00, 2.00 and 3.00 hrs, type of solvent (acetone, methanol and ethanol) and temperature (~ 25 and 50)ºc on curcumin percentage yield from turmeric rhizomes. The results showed significant differences (p? 0.05) in all variables. The curcumin content which were determined spectrophotometrically ranged between (0.55-2.90) %. The maximum yield was obtained when temperature, time and solvent were 50ºC, 3 hrs and acetone, respectively.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
The Journal Of Academic Social Sciences
BETWEEN TRIBULATION AND SURVIVAL: WOMEN IN LUTFIYA AL-DULAIMIS SATURN LADIES
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Literary Animal and the Grotesque Survival in Ted Hughes’s “Thrushes”
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In his opus, Ted Hughes has annexed new and fresh territories of signification to the very notion of the literary animal. Building on the earlier modernist example of the Lawrencian legacy that dwells upon the question of animalism, Hughes seems to have stepped further into the terrain of the sheer struggle when, in his hands, the grotesquerie of survival and violence energizes the topos of the literary animal in his postmodern bestiary. In Hughes’s elemental poetic process this grotesquerie and violence stages the literary animal as a vital poetic device or motif that is finally restored to the primitive power of poetry. In his “Thrushes”, he thus defamiliarizes these tiny creatures’ acts of being to bring upfront into focus thi

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Building 1D Mechanical Earth Model for Zubair Oilfield in Iraq
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Many problems were encountered during the drilling operations in Zubair oilfield. Stuckpipe, wellbore instability, breakouts and washouts, which increased the critical limits problems, were observed in many wells in this field, therefore an extra non-productive time added to the total drilling time, which will lead to an extra cost spent. A 1D Mechanical Earth Model (1D MEM) was built to suggest many solutions to such types of problems. An overpressured zone is noticed and an alternative mud weigh window is predicted depending on the results of the 1D MEM. Results of this study are diagnosed and wellbore instability problems are predicted in an efficient way using the 1D MEM. Suitable alternative solutions are presented

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 02 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Medical Research & Health Sciences
Analysis of HLA-DQB1 Alleles Frequency in Patients with Chronic Periodontitis
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
For Sake of The Economic Reform - With some indication for Iraq
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The imbalances and economic problems which it face the countries, it is a result of international economic developments or changes or global crises such as deterioration in trade, sharp changes in oil prices, increasing global indebtedness, sharp changes in foreign exchange rates and other changes, all that, they affect the economic features of any country. and These influences vary from one country to another according to the rigidity of its economy and its potential in maneuvering with economic plans and actions that would reduce the impact or avoidance with minimal damage. Therefore, the countries  that  suffer from accumulated economic problems as a result of mismanagement and poor planning or suffe

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