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DYNAMIC MODELING OF TIME-VARYING ESTIMATION FOR DISCRETE SURVIVAL ANALYSIS FOR DIALYSIS PATIENTS IN BASRAH, IRAQ
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Survival analysis is widely applied to data that described by the length of time until the occurrence of an event under interest such as death or other important events. The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic methodology which provides a flexible method, especially in the analysis of discrete survival time, to estimate the effect of covariate variables through time in the survival analysis on dialysis patients with kidney failure until death occurs. Where the estimations process is completely based on the Bayes approach by using two estimation methods: the maximum A Posterior (MAP) involved with Iteratively Weighted Kalman Filter Smoothing (IWKFS) and in combination with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. While the other method was represented by the Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (HMCMC). Moreover, two hazard function models were considered in the comparison: the Logistic model and the discrete Cox model. Two criteria were used for comparisons Average Mean Square Error: AMSE and Cross Entropy Error: CEE. All these four combinations of methods were clarified via the discussion of the numerical results with their explanations. It can be noticed the superiority of HMCMC method through the two hazard models.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 29 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Humanities And Social Sciences Researches
Measuring and Analysis the Relationship between the Internal Public Debt and the Exchange Rate in the Iraqi Economy for The Period 2004 – 2022
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The scholastic view of public religion differed, and this difference was on two extremes. All economic schools agreed that public debt is a monetary liquidity that was unjustly deducted from the income and output cycle as a result of the imbalance in the economic balance and the departure from the conditions of balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Debt is a waste of financial resources allocated to productive accumulation. Except for the Keynesian school, which considers public debt to be an addition to aggregate demand after the decline in the role of the private sector in investment as a result of pessimistic expectations that warn of signs of economic contraction. Public debt is linked to the ex

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Estimate Gas Initially in Place of Tight Gas Reservoirs Based on Developed Methodology of Dynamic Material Balance Technique
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With growing global demand for hydrocarbons and decreasing conventional reserves, the gas industry is shifting its focus in the direction of unconventional reservoirs. Tight gas reservoirs have typically been deemed uneconomical due to their low permeability which is understood to be below 0.1mD, requiring advanced drilling techniques and stimulation to enhance hydrocarbons. However, the first step in determining the economic viability of the reservoir is to see how much gas is initially in place. Numerical simulation has been regarded across the industry as the most accurate form of gas estimation, however, is extremely costly and time consuming. The aim of this study is to provide a framework for a simple analytical method to esti

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Analysis of Wave Propagation in Detection of Aorta Dieses Using Lumps Analysis
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In this paper a theoretical attempt is made to determine whether changes in the aorta diameter at different location along the aorta can be detected by brachial artery measurement.  The aorta is divided into six main parts, each part with 4 lumps of 0.018m length. It is assumed that a desired section of the aorta has a radius change of 100,200, 500%. The results show that there is a significant change for part 2 (lumps 5-8) from the other parts. This indicates that the nearest position to the artery gives the significant change in the artery wave pressure while other parts of the aorta have a small effect.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis The Consistency Between The Tariff And The Exchange Rate And Their Reflection On The Trade Balance In Iraq
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       The trade balance is considered as a way to join the national economy with the world, So it is the mirror that reflect the economic center of the country and it is point to competitive ability of it, The tariff and the exchange rate perform a great role to motivate the domestic production and improve the trade balance if we direct them to achieve the same purpose. The Iraqi economic has trade balance which achieve overabundant during the years of studying because of the oil exports, while the other exports represent a small percentage it is hardly remember, and expansion in imports from other side causes exhaustion in oil revenues, and this make the trade balance in permanent

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Modis Satellite Data Evaluation for Detecting the Dust Storm Using Remote Sensing Techniques Over Iraq
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Abstract<p>The phenomena of Dust storm take place in barren and dry regions all over the world. It may cause by intense ground winds which excite the dust and sand from soft, arid land surfaces resulting it to rise up in the air. These phenomena may cause harmful influences upon health, climate, infrastructure, and transportation. GIS and remote sensing have played a key role in studying dust detection. This study was conducted in Iraq with the objective of validating dust detection. These techniques have been used to derive dust indices using Normalized Difference Dust Index (NDDI) and Middle East Dust Index (MEDI), which are based on images from MODIS and in-situ observation based on hourly wi</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and Analyzing The Causal Relationship between Investing Government Expenditure non-oil GDP in Iraq For The Period (1990-2011)
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The investment government expenditure is considered the fundamental of enhancing the economic activity as it has become a mean for achieving capital accumulation in all economic  sectors, The Iraqi economy is characterized of being yield unilateral depending petroleum  revenues as an essential  resource of financing government expenditure , as  the contribution of petroleum  sector in GDP is large in proportions to other economic sectors  contribution.

 The relationship between investing government expenditure, and non-oil GDP  is about to be not existent during the

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Reducing of Manufacturing Lead Time by Implementation of Lean Manufacturing Principles
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Many organizations today are  interesting to implementing lean manufacturing principles  that should enable them to eliminating the wastes to reducing a  manufacturing lead time.  This paper concentrates on  increasing  the competitive level of the company in globalization markets and improving of the productivity by reducing the manufacturing lead time. This will be by using the main tool of lean manufacturing which is value stream mapping (VSM) to identifying all the activities of manufacturing process (value and non-value added activities) to reducing elimination of wastes (non-value added activities) by converting a manufacturing system to pull instead of push by applying some of pull system strategies a

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Material Requirements Planning for the Electric Motor in Fuzzy Environment for State Company for Electric Industries
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ABSTRUCT

This research aims at examining the expected gap between the fact of planning and controlling process of production at the State Company for Electric Industries and implementation of material requirements planning system in fuzzy environment. Developing solutions to bridge the gap is required to provide specific mechanisms subject to the logic of fuzzy rules that will keep pace with demand for increased accuracy and reduced waiting times depending on demand forecast, investment in inventory to reduce costs to a minimum.

The proposed solutions for overcoming the research problem has required some  questions reflecting the problem with its multiple dimensions, which ar

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Period of Creative Behavior for personin in Achieving Entrepreneurial for The new Organaization
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Experienced organizations in recent years, significant challenges , especially with the spread of economic globalization, making it required to provide new and better through experience , creativity and innovation to achieve the quality and high-quality products of all kinds , in order to achieve the objectives of the study and to answer its questions tested the study in the woolen Industries sector in Baghdad . The study was applied to a sample of 30 people in the senior management and the middle and lower in the company (managers of sections  , and  managers of people , and managers of the units , and office managers ) and for the processing of data and information used several statistical methods and extracted result

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial Variables and Their Effects on The Development of Bank Credit and Productive Sectors in Iraq Using a Path Analysis Model
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This study aims to measure and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the financial variables, namely (public spending, public revenues, internal debt, and external debt), on the non-oil productive sectors with and without bank credit as an intermediate variable, using quarterly data for the period (2004Q1–2021Q4), converted using Eviews 12. To measure the objective of the study, the path analysis method was used using IBM SPSS-AMOS. The study concluded that the direct and indirect effects of financial variables have a weak role in directing bank credit towards the productive sectors in Iraq, which amounted to (0.18), as a result of market risks or unstable expectations in the economy. In addition to the weak credit ratings of borr

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