In this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decades.
Silymarin, a flavolignans from seeds of ‘milk thistle’ “Silybum marianum†has been widely used from ancient times because of its excellent hepatoprotective action. It has been used clinically to treat liver disorders including acute and chronic viral hepatitis, toxin/drug-induced hepatitis and cirrhosis and alcoholic liver disease. The efficacy and dose-response effect of silymarin (125, 250 and 500 mg/kg) were assessed using egg albumin-induced paw edema in rats as a model of acute inflammation. In this model, 56 rats were used and allocated into 7 subgroups each containing 8 rats. All treatments were given intraperitonealy 30 minutes before induction of inflammation by egg albumin and then the increase
... Show MoreAnalysis the economic and financial phenomena and other requires to build the appropriate model, which represents the causal relations between factors. The operation building of the model depends on Imaging conditions and factors surrounding an in mathematical formula and the Researchers target to build that formula appropriately. Classical linear regression models are an important statistical tool, but used in a limited way, where is assumed that the relationship between the variables illustrations and response variables identifiable. To expand the representation of relationships between variables that represent the phenomenon under discussion we used Varying Coefficient Models
... Show MoreThis study aims to estimate the accuracy of digital elevation models (DEM) which are created with exploitation of open source Google Earth data and comparing with the widely available DEM datasets, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), version 3, and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM), version 2. The GPS technique is used in this study to produce digital elevation raster with a high level of accuracy, as reference raster, compared to the DEM datasets. Baghdad University, Al Jadriya campus, is selected as a study area. Besides, 151 reference points were created within the study area to evaluate the results based on the values of RMS.Furthermore, th
... Show MoreThe high and low water levels in Tigris River threaten the banks of the river. The study area is located on the main stream of Tigris River at Nu’maniyah City and the length of the considered reach is 5.4 km, especially the region from 400 m upstream Nu’maniyah Bridge and downstream of the bridge up to 1250 mwhich increased the risk ofthe problemthat itheading towardsthe streetand causingdanger tonearbyareas.
The aim of this research is to identify the reason of slope collapse and find proper treatments for erosion problem in the river banks with the least cost. The modeling approach consisted of several steps, the first of which is by using “mini” JET (Jet Erosion Test) d
... Show MoreSocial media is known as detectors platform that are used to measure the activities of the users in the real world. However, the huge and unfiltered feed of messages posted on social media trigger social warnings, particularly when these messages contain hate speech towards specific individual or community. The negative effect of these messages on individuals or the society at large is of great concern to governments and non-governmental organizations. Word clouds provide a simple and efficient means of visually transferring the most common words from text documents. This research aims to develop a word cloud model based on hateful words on online social media environment such as Google News. Several steps are involved including data acq
... Show MoreThis study examines traveling wave solutions of the SIS epidemic model with nonlocal dispersion and delay. The research shows that a key factor in determining whether traveling waves exist is the basic reproduction number R0. In particular, the system permits nontrivial traveling wave solutions for σ≥σ∗ for R0>1, whereas there are no such solutions for σ<σ∗. This is because there is a minimal wave speed σ∗>0. On the other hand, there are no traveling wave solutions when R0≤1. In conclusion, we provide several numerical simulations that illustrate the existence of TWS.
This study investigates the influence of fear, refuge, and migration in a predator–prey model, where the interactions between the species follow an asymmetric function response. In contrast to some other findings, we propose that prey develop an anti-predator response in response to a concentration of predators, which in turn increases the fear factor of the predators. The conditions under which all ecologically meaningful equilibrium points exist are discussed in detail. The local and global dynamics of the model are determined at all equilibrium points. The model admits several interesting results by changing the rate of fear of predators and predator aggregate sensitivity. Numerical simulations have been performed to verify our theoret
... Show MoreA modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify the va
... Show More