Preferred Language
Articles
/
oObQKJ4BmraWrQ4d5l5I
A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
...Show More Authors

Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

Scopus Crossref
View Publication
Publication Date
Wed Sep 22 2021
Journal Name
Samarra Journal Of Pure And Applied Science
Toward Constructing a Balanced Intrusion Detection Dataset
...Show More Authors

Several Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) have been proposed in the current decade. Most datasets which associate with intrusion detection dataset suffer from an imbalance class problem. This problem limits the performance of classifier for minority classes. This paper has presented a novel class imbalance processing technology for large scale multiclass dataset, referred to as BMCD. Our algorithm is based on adapting the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE) with multiclass dataset to improve the detection rate of minority classes while ensuring efficiency. In this work we have been combined five individual CICIDS2017 dataset to create one multiclass dataset which contains several types of attacks. To prove the eff

... Show More
View Publication
Crossref (11)
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jul 17 2019
Journal Name
Advances In Intelligent Systems And Computing
A New Arabic Dataset for Emotion Recognition
...Show More Authors

In this study, we have created a new Arabic dataset annotated according to Ekman’s basic emotions (Anger, Disgust, Fear, Happiness, Sadness and Surprise). This dataset is composed from Facebook posts written in the Iraqi dialect. We evaluated the quality of this dataset using four external judges which resulted in an average inter-annotation agreement of 0.751. Then we explored six different supervised machine learning methods to test the new dataset. We used Weka standard classifiers ZeroR, J48, Naïve Bayes, Multinomial Naïve Bayes for Text, and SMO. We also used a further compression-based classifier called PPM not included in Weka. Our study reveals that the PPM classifier significantly outperforms other classifiers such as SVM and N

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus (24)
Crossref (14)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Feb 22 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
MRI images series segmentation using the geodesic deformable model
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2009
Journal Name
Tencon 2009 - 2009 Ieee Region 10 Conference
Optimizing the MPLS support for real time IPv6-Flows using MPLS-PHS approach
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Scopus (4)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare to the conditional logistic regression models with fixed and mixed effects for longitudinal data
...Show More Authors

Mixed-effects conditional logistic regression is evidently more effective in the study of qualitative differences in longitudinal pollution data as well as their implications on heterogeneous subgroups. This study seeks that conditional logistic regression is a robust evaluation method for environmental studies, thru the analysis of environment pollution as a function of oil production and environmental factors. Consequently, it has been established theoretically that the primary objective of model selection in this research is to identify the candidate model that is optimal for the conditional design. The candidate model should achieve generalizability, goodness-of-fit, parsimony and establish equilibrium between bias and variab

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun May 11 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Statisticians Journal
Nonparametric Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series Models
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
The use of ARIMA, LSTM and GRU models in time series hybridization with practical application
...Show More Authors

The importance of forecasting has emerged in the economic field in order to achieve economic growth, as forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, and accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges in which we seek to make the best decision. The aim of the research is to suggest the use of hybrid models for forecasting the daily crude oil prices as the hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is long short term memory (LSTM) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) which represents deep learning models. It was found that the proposed h

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
The use of ARIMA, ANN and SVR models in time series hybridization with practical application
...Show More Authors

Forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, as the importance of forecasting in the economic field has emerged in order to achieve economic growth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges that we seek to make the best decision, the aim of the research is to suggest employing hybrid models to predict daily crude oil prices. The hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models, and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR) algorithm and it was shown that the proposed hybrid models in the predicti

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Solving Time-Cost Tradeoff Problem with Resource Constraint Using Fuzzy Mathematical Model
...Show More Authors

Scheduling considered being one of the most fundamental and essential bases of the project management. Several methods are used for project scheduling such as CPM, PERT and GERT. Since too many uncertainties are involved in methods for estimating the duration and cost of activities, these methods lack the capability of modeling practical projects. Although schedules can be developed for construction projects at early stage, there is always a possibility for unexpected material or technical shortages during construction stage. The objective of this research is to build a fuzzy mathematical model including time cost tradeoff and resource constraints analysis to be applied concurrently. The proposed model has been formulated using fuzzy the

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (3)
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jun 10 2009
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Real Time Quantum Bit Error Rate Performance Test for a Quantum Cryptography System Based on BB84 protocol
...Show More Authors

In this work, the performance of the receiver in a quantum cryptography system based on BB84 protocol is scaled by calculating the Quantum Bit Error Rate (QBER) of the receiver. To apply this performance test, an optical setup was arranged and a circuit was designed and implemented to calculate the QBER. This electronic circuit is used to calculate the number of counts per second generated by the avalanche photodiodes set in the receiver. The calculated counts per second are used to calculate the QBER for the receiver that gives an indication for the performance of the receiver. Minimum QBER, 6%, was obtained with avalanche photodiode excess voltage equals to 2V and laser diode power of 3.16 nW at avalanche photodiode temperature of -10

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF