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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Improving IoT Applications Using a Proposed Routing Protocol
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The main objective of this work is to propose a new routing protocol for wireless sensor network employed to serve IoT systems. The routing protocol has to adapt with different requirements in order to enhance the performance of IoT applications. The link quality, node depth and energy are used as metrics to make routing decisions. Comparison with other protocols is essential to show the improvements achieved by this work, thus protocols designed to serve the same purpose such as AODV, REL and LABILE are chosen to compare the proposed routing protocol with. To add integrative and holistic, some of important features are added and tested such as actuating and mobility. These features are greatly required by some of IoT applications and im

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Real-Time Cloth Simulation on Virtual Human Character Using Enhanced Position Based Dynamic Framework Technique
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     Cloth simulation and animation has been the topic of research since the mid-80's in the field of computer graphics. Enforcing incompressible is very important in real time simulation. Although, there are great achievements in this regard, it still suffers from unnecessary time consumption in certain steps that is common in real time applications.   This research develops a real-time cloth simulator for a virtual human character (VHC) with wearable clothing. This research achieves success in cloth simulation on the VHC through enhancing the position-based dynamics (PBD) framework by computing a series of positional constraints which implement constant densities. Also, the self-collision and collision wit

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2017
Journal Name
Global Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics
Solution of Modified Kuznetsov Model with Mixed Therapy
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In this paper two modifications on Kuznetsov model namely on growth rate law and fractional cell kill term are given. Laplace Adomian decomposition method is used to get the solution (volume of the tumor) as a function of time .Stability analysis is applied. For lung cancer the tumor will continue in growing in spite of the treatment.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Real-Time PCR to Investigate Some of Antibiotic Resistance Genes from Streptococcus agalactiae Isolates from ewe Mastitis cases in Nineveh province
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In this study, from a total of 856 mastitis cases in lactating ewes, only 34 Streptococcus agalactiae isolates showed various types of resistance to three types of antibiotics (Penicillin, Erythromycin and Tetracycline). St. agalactiae isolates were identified according to the standard methods, including a new suggested technique called specific Chromogenic agar. It was found that antibiotic bacterial resistance was clearly identified by using MIC-microplate assay (dilution method). Also, by real-time PCR technique, it was determined that there were three antibiotics genes resistance ( pbp2b, tetO and mefA ). The high percentage of isolate carried of a single gene which was the Tetracycline (20.59%) followed by percentage Penicillin was

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
Iv. International Rimar Congress Of Pure, Applied Sciences
A New Intrusion Detection Approach Based on RNA Encoding and K-Means Clustering Algorithm Using KDD-Cup99 Dataset
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Intrusion detection systems (IDS) are useful tools that help security administrators in the developing task to secure the network and alert in any possible harmful event. IDS can be classified either as misuse or anomaly, depending on the detection methodology. Where Misuse IDS can recognize the known attack based on their signatures, the main disadvantage of these systems is that they cannot detect new attacks. At the same time, the anomaly IDS depends on normal behaviour, where the main advantage of this system is its ability to discover new attacks. On the other hand, the main drawback of anomaly IDS is high false alarm rate results. Therefore, a hybrid IDS is a combination of misuse and anomaly and acts as a solution to overcome the dis

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 18 2025
Journal Name
Iranian Journal Of Science
Exploring Neimark-Sacker Bifurcation and Chaos Control in a Tri-species Discrete-Time Model
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Building a Statistical Model to Detect Foreground Objects and using it in Video Steganography
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Video steganography has become a popular option for protecting secret data from hacking attempts and common attacks on the internet. However, when the whole video frame(s) are used to embed secret data, this may lead to visual distortion. This work is an attempt to hide sensitive secret image inside the moving objects in a video based on separating the object from the background of the frame, selecting and arranging them according to object's size for embedding secret image. The XOR technique is used with reverse bits between the secret image bits and the detected moving object bits for embedding. The proposed method provides more security and imperceptibility as the moving objects are used for embedding, so it is difficult to notice the

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2026
Journal Name
Softwarex
A toolbox for real orthogonal polynomials
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Publication Date
Mon May 18 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Quantitative detection and correlation of Epstein - Barr Virus in plasma with gingivitis and severity of chronic periodontitis by using real-time polymerase chain reaction technique
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Background: The main purpose of this study is to find if there is any correlation between the level of C-reactive protein (CRP) in gingival crevicular fluid with its serum level in chronic periodontitis patients and to explore the differences between them according to the probing depth. Materials and methods: Forty seven male subjects enrolled in this study. Thirty males with chronic periodontitis considered as study group whom further subdivided according to probing depth into subgroup 1 with pocket depth ≤6mm, subgroup 2 with pocket depth >6mm. The other 17 subjects considered as controls. For all subjects, clinical examination where done for periodontal parameters plaque index (PLI), gingival index (GI), bleeding on probing (BOP),

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