Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The increase of the scenographic designer role on account of the character of the director in the Iraqi theater constituted a clear phenomenon that has been manifested in many shows, which necessitated a stance on the nature of this relation and delimiting the work space for each one of them inside the theater show. The research focuses on determining the work relation between the directorial vision and the scenographic proposal in the Iraq theater show. The research is divided into four chapters, the first one addressed the methodological framework, where the research problem was stated in the following question (has the scenographic designer been able through his scenographic proposal to remove the director from his position being the
... Show MoreIn this paper, a mathematical model consisting of a prey-predator system incorporating infectious disease in the prey has been proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that the predator preys upon the nonrefugees prey only according to the modified Holling type-II functional response. There is a harvesting process from the predator. The existence and uniqueness of the solution in addition to their bounded are discussed. The stability analysis of the model around all possible equilibrium points is investigated. The persistence conditions of the system are established. Local bifurcation analysis in view of the Sotomayor theorem is carried out. Numerical simulation has been applied to investigate the global dynamics and specify the effect
... Show MoreKriging, a geostatistical technique, has been used for many years to evaluate groundwater quality. The best estimation data for unsampled points were determined by using this method depending on measured variables for an area. The groundwater contaminants assessment worldwide was found through many kriging methods. The present paper shows a review of the most known methods of kriging that were used in estimating and mapping the groundwater quality. Indicator kriging, simple kriging, cokriging, ordinary kriging, disjunctive kriging and lognormal kriging are the most used techniques. In addition, the concept of the disjunctive kriging method was explained in this work to be easily understood.
It is commonly known that Euler-Bernoulli’s thin beam theorem is not applicable whenever a nonlinear distribution of strain/stress occurs, such as in deep beams, or the stress distribution is discontinuous. In order to design the members experiencing such distorted stress regions, the Strut-and-Tie Model (STM) could be utilized. In this paper, experimental investigation of STM technique for three identical small-scale deep beams was conducted. The beams were simply supported and loaded statically with a concentrated load at the mid span of the beams. These deep beams had two symmetrical openings near the application point of loading. Both the deep beam, where the stress distribution cannot be assumed linear, and the ex
... Show MoreThe research aims to determine the mix of production optimization in the case of several conflicting objectives to be achieved at the same time, therefore, discussions dealt with the concept of programming goals and entrances to be resolved and dealt with the general formula for the programming model the goals and finally determine the mix of production optimization using a programming model targets to the default case.
Chemical pollution is a very important issue that people suffer from and it often affects the nature of health of society and the future of the health of future generations. Consequently, it must be considered in order to discover suitable models and find descriptions to predict the performance of it in the forthcoming years. Chemical pollution data in Iraq take a great scope and manifold sources and kinds, which brands it as Big Data that need to be studied using novel statistical methods. The research object on using Proposed Nonparametric Procedure NP Method to develop an (OCMT) test procedure to estimate parameters of linear regression model with large size of data (Big Data) which comprises many indicators associated with chemi
... Show MoreBootstrap is one of an important re-sampling technique which has given the attention of researches recently. The presence of outliers in the original data set may cause serious problem to the classical bootstrap when the percentage of outliers are higher than the original one. Many methods are proposed to overcome this problem such Dynamic Robust Bootstrap for LTS (DRBLTS) and Weighted Bootstrap with Probability (WBP). This paper try to show the accuracy of parameters estimation by comparison the results of both methods. The bias , MSE and RMSE are considered. The criterion of the accuracy is based on the RMSE value since the method that provide us RMSE value smaller than other is con
... Show MoreIt is well- known that the distinguished scholastic journal is a crucial cornerstone, which contributes to the scientific integrity of a particular academic institution. The establishment of the Al-Kindy College of Medicine (AKCM), University of Baghdad, in 1998 urged the need to issue Al-Kindy College Medical Journal (KCMJ).
The Electro-Fenton oxidation process is one of the essential advanced electrochemical oxidation processes used to treat Phenol and its derivatives in wastewater. The Electro-Fenton oxidation process was carried out at an ambient temperature at different current density (2, 4, 6, 8 mA/cm2) for up to 6 h. Sodium Sulfate at a concentration of 0.05M was used as a supporting electrolyte, and 0.4 mM of Ferrous ion concentration (Fe2+) was used as a catalyst. The electrolyte cell consists of graphite modified by an electrodepositing layer of PbO2 on its surface as anode and carbon fiber modified with Graphene as a cathode. The results indicated that Phenol concentration decreases with an increase in current dens
... Show MoreThe study aims at:
1- Identifying the contemporary educational approaches in teaching arts.
2- The effectiveness of using the visual thinking strategy in photography subject for the first year students in the institute of fine arts/Holy city of Kadhimiyah.
The study sample is made of (30 ) first year students (in the institute of fine arts/in Holy city of Kadhimiyah) distributed into two groups, an experimental group made of (15) students and a control group having the same number of students in order to conduct the test. The test for the visual thinking strategy in the subject of photography has been designed and the validity and reliability for the research tool have been verified. In order to demonstrate the results of the