Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Praise be to God, and prayers and peace be upon our master Muhammad, the Messenger of God, and upon his family, companions, and those who are guided by his guidance.
Then:
Our Islamic jurisprudence and its basic principles are fixed, namely: the Noble Qur’an, then the Prophet’s Sunnah, then consensus, then analogy. However, it is characteristic of what makes it developed to meet the requirements of renewed life, including: sent interests, custom, approval, blocking pretexts, changing times. That is why it went through different stages, growth, brilliance, stagnation and endowment; Therefore, many scholars of Islamic jurisprudence divided its stages into four sections: the stage of inf
... Show MoreMachine learning models have recently provided great promise in diagnosis of several ophthalmic disorders, including keratoconus (KCN). Keratoconus, a noninflammatory ectatic corneal disorder characterized by progressive cornea thinning, is challenging to detect as signs may be subtle. Several machine learning models have been proposed to detect KCN, however most of the models are supervised and thus require large well-annotated data. This paper proposes a new unsupervised model to detect KCN, based on adapted flower pollination algorithm (FPA) and the k-means algorithm. We will evaluate the proposed models using corneal data collected from 5430 eyes at different stages of KCN severity (1520 healthy, 331 KCN1, 1319 KCN2, 1699 KCN3 a
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper is to develop a hybrid conceptual model for building information modelling (BIM) adoption in facilities management (FM) through the integration of the technology task fit (TTF) and the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) theories. The study also aims to identify the influence factors of BIM adoption and usage in FM and identify gaps in the existing literature and to provide a holistic picture of recent research in technology acceptance and adoption in the construction industry and FM sector.
This research aims at identifying the communicative habits and content reflections on the communication process, especially the young audience which is one of the main group for whom the announcements are made. Because young people face life with passion and aspiration making them respond to each effect used by the media in the design of the advertising using all the effective techniques, attractive methods for young children like depending on drama, technical tricks, music and logos easily to be remembered and responded to the desires of the young in their entertainment. This research also aims at identifying the impact of the internet as a channel of commercial advertising on the purchasing behavior of young people at the universities
... Show MoreThis research describes a new model inspired by Mobilenetv2 that was trained on a very diverse dataset. The goal is to enable fire detection in open areas to replace physical sensor-based fire detectors and reduce false alarms of fires, to achieve the lowest losses in open areas via deep learning. A diverse fire dataset was created that combines images and videos from several sources. In addition, another self-made data set was taken from the farms of the holy shrine of Al-Hussainiya in the city of Karbala. After that, the model was trained with the collected dataset. The test accuracy of the fire dataset that was trained with the new model reached 98.87%.
Background: Immune thrombocytopenia is an immune-related disorder that causes an impairment in platelet production and stimulates platelet destruction, causing variable bleeding symptoms. Objective: This study focuses on refractory immune thrombocytopenic purpura patients on romiplostim treatment and their level of illness perception related to treatment response. Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted from May 1st, 2025, to August 1st, 2025. Brief Illness Perception Questionnaires were administered to 84 patients with ITP to collect the data. The study took place at the Hematology and Bone Marrow Transplant Center, Medical City, Baghdad, Iraq. Results: The romiplostim response rate is 21 (25.0%), while the partial response rate is 4
... Show MoreAbstract\
In this research we built a mathematical model of the transportation problem for data of General Company for Grain Under the environment of variable demand ,and situations of incapableness to determining the supply required quantities as a result of economic and commercial reasons, also restrict flow of grain amounts was specified to a known level by the decision makers to ensure that the stock of reserves for emergency situations that face the company from decrease, or non-arrival of the amount of grain to silos , also it took the capabilities of the tanker into consideration and the grain have been restricted to avoid shortages and lack of processing capability, Function has been adopted
... Show MoreIt is well- known that the distinguished scholastic journal is a crucial cornerstone, which contributes to the scientific integrity of a particular academic institution. The establishment of the Al-Kindy College of Medicine (AKCM), University of Baghdad, in 1998 urged the need to issue Al-Kindy College Medical Journal (KCMJ).
The aim of this study is to investigate the kinetics of copper removal from aqueous solutions using an electromembrane extraction (EME) system. To achieve this, a unique electrochemical cell design was adopted comprising two glass chambers, a supported liquid membrane (SLM), a graphite anode, and a stainless-steel cathode. The SLM consisted of a polypropylene flat membrane infused with 1-octanol as a solvent and bis(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate (DEHP) as a carrier. The impact of various factors on the kinetics constant rate was outlined, including the applied voltage, initial pH of the donor phase solution, and initial copper concentration. The results demonstrated a significant influence of the applied voltage on enhancing the rate of c
... Show MoreIn this paper, the reliability and scheduling of maintenance of some medical devices were estimated by one variable, the time variable (failure times) on the assumption that the time variable for all devices has the same distribution as (Weibull distribution.
The method of estimating the distribution parameters for each device was the OLS method.
The main objective of this research is to determine the optimal time for preventive maintenance of medical devices. Two methods were adopted to estimate the optimal time of preventive maintenance. The first method depends on the maintenance schedule by relying on information on the cost of maintenance and the cost of stopping work and acc
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