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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 14 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-rafidain University College For Sciences ( Print Issn: 1681-6870 ,online Issn: 2790-2293 )
Using Nonparametric Procedure to Develop an OCMT Estimator for Big Data Linear Regression Model with Application Chemical Pollution in the Tigris River
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Chemical pollution is a very important issue that people suffer from and it often affects the nature of health of society and the future of the health of future generations. Consequently, it must be considered in order to discover suitable models and find descriptions to predict the performance of it in the forthcoming years. Chemical pollution data in Iraq take a great scope and manifold sources and kinds, which brands it as Big Data that need to be studied using novel statistical methods. The research object on using Proposed Nonparametric Procedure NP Method to develop an (OCMT) test procedure to estimate parameters of linear regression model with large size of data (Big Data) which comprises many indicators associated with chemi

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Applied Mathematics
Order and Chaos in a Prey-Predator Model Incorporating Refuge, Disease, and Harvesting
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In this paper, a mathematical model consisting of a prey-predator system incorporating infectious disease in the prey has been proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that the predator preys upon the nonrefugees prey only according to the modified Holling type-II functional response. There is a harvesting process from the predator. The existence and uniqueness of the solution in addition to their bounded are discussed. The stability analysis of the model around all possible equilibrium points is investigated. The persistence conditions of the system are established. Local bifurcation analysis in view of the Sotomayor theorem is carried out. Numerical simulation has been applied to investigate the global dynamics and specify the effect

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2025
Journal Name
Coed
Engaging High School Teachers with Artificial Intelligence Concepts, Applications, and Developments
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This work analyzes the effectiveness of an artificial intelligence (AI) community- building workshop designed for high school teachers and it focuses on contemporary issues related to AI concepts and applications. A group of high school teachers from local education districts attended a one-day AI hands-on workshop at our university. The workshop included several AI-related topics and hands-on examples and exercises aiming to introduce AI concepts and tools relevant to pre-college education. The participating teachers were expected to become a part of a collaborative network created to design, develop, and implement novel AI learning modules for high school students. Initial and a post-training surveys have been used to measure the

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Dynamic algorithm (DRBLTS) and potentially weighted (WBP) to estimate hippocampal regression parameters using a techniqueBootstrap (comparative study)
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Bootstrap is one of an important re-sampling technique which has given the attention of  researches recently. The presence of outliers in the original data set may cause serious problem to the classical bootstrap when the percentage of outliers are higher than the original one. Many methods are proposed to overcome this problem such  Dynamic Robust Bootstrap for LTS (DRBLTS) and Weighted Bootstrap with Probability (WBP). This paper try to show the accuracy of parameters estimation by comparison the results of both methods. The bias , MSE and RMSE are considered. The criterion of the accuracy is based on the RMSE value since the method that provide us RMSE value smaller than other is con

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Prothrombin Time role in Head Injury & Intracranial Hematomas, A prospective Study of 325 cases
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Objective: Aimed to asses the role of PT estimation in early diagnosis and predicting the extent and the outcome of head injury with ICerH and/ or Contusion
Method :PT was measured by Digiclot 818
Group –1: One hundred consecutive head injured patients admitted at Neurosurgical and Al Ramadi teaching hospitals were initially estimated for prothrombin time and subsequently scanned
Group-2 : Two hundred twenty five consecutive non scanned head injured patients admitted to Neurosurgical and Al Ramadi teaching hospitals were estimated with prothrombin time at the time of insult and subsequently for the next two weeks Al – Kindy Col Med J 2012; Vol. 8 No. 1 P: 54
Clinical and neurological evaluation (GCS) score in addition to

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 12 2023
Journal Name
المجلة الدولية للتنمية في العلوم الاجتماعية والإنسانية
the Ottoman Empire in the Nineteenth Century (Iraq as a Model)the Ottoman Empire in the Nineteenth Century (Iraq as a Model)
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One of the most important features of American foreign activity during the second half of the 19th century was the encouragement of sending Protestant missionary missions to all countries around the world. The mission of these missions was facilitated by the weakened state of the Ottoman Empire, the increasing influence of European countries, and their interference in its internal affairs. Despite the Ottoman efforts to counter the activities of these missions, the American missionary missions adopted a well-planned strategy that suited the conditions of the region, aimed at achieving their goals through direct and indirect methods, including intervention in the field of education. These missions gave great importance to educational aspects

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Multiple Intelligence Test Item Selection-Based on Howard Gardner's MI Model Using a Generalized Partial Estimation Model: Ministry of Education \ Karkh First Directorate of Education
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The aim of the research is to examine the multiple intelligence test item selection based on Howard Gardner's MI model using the Generalized Partial Estimation Form, generalized intelligence. The researcher adopted the scale of multiple intelligences by Kardner, it consists of (102) items with eight sub-scales. The sample consisted of (550) students from Baghdad universities, Technology University, al-Mustansiriyah university, and Iraqi University for the academic year (2019/2020). It was verified assumptions theory response to a single (one-dimensional, local autonomy, the curve of individual characteristics, speed factor and application), and analysis of the data according to specimen partial appreciation of the generalized, and limits

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Naber and toning in the modern Arab poetry Mahmoud Darwish, a model
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Naber and toning in the modern Arab poetry Mahmoud Darwish, a model

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Medical evidence in matters of proof between Sharia and law: A model
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Praise be to God, prayer, and peace be upon the Messenger of Allah and his God and his companions. The field of the judiciary to prove or invalidate some cases in the field of proof of descent and attachment to the plaintiff or exile, and other legal and judicial issues, especially in this era where the spread of previously unknown evidence, such as DNA, which was discovered in 1953, and the genetic fingerprint discovered 1984, blood analysis and a Saliva, sweat, poetry, etc. in the field of forensic evidence, in forensic medicine or medical expertise, it can be used to identify the killer, or verify his identity, using all the evidence in the scene, such as a point of blood or sweat, and the like So, as well as to prove the lineage is u

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 06 2022
Journal Name
Advances In Systems Science And Applications
Stability and Bifurcation of a Delay Cancer Model in the Polluted Environment
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It is well known that the spread of cancer or tumor growth increases in polluted environments. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the cancer model in the polluted environment is studied taking into consideration the delay in clearance of the environment from their contamination. The set of differential equations that simulates this epidemic model is formulated. The existence, uniqueness, and the bound of the solution are discussed. The local and global stability conditions of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are investigated. The occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation around the endemic equilibrium point is proved. The stability and direction of the periodic dynamics are studied. Finally, the paper is ended with a numerical simul

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