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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Multiple Intelligence Test Item Selection-Based on Howard Gardner's MI Model Using a Generalized Partial Estimation Model: Ministry of Education \ Karkh First Directorate of Education
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The aim of the research is to examine the multiple intelligence test item selection based on Howard Gardner's MI model using the Generalized Partial Estimation Form, generalized intelligence. The researcher adopted the scale of multiple intelligences by Kardner, it consists of (102) items with eight sub-scales. The sample consisted of (550) students from Baghdad universities, Technology University, al-Mustansiriyah university, and Iraqi University for the academic year (2019/2020). It was verified assumptions theory response to a single (one-dimensional, local autonomy, the curve of individual characteristics, speed factor and application), and analysis of the data according to specimen partial appreciation of the generalized, and limits

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 26 2026
Journal Name
Buildings
Performance Analysis of Cement Mortar Modified with Nano-Silica and Nano-Alumina
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The limitations of conventional cement mortar as a widely used construction material include low tensile capacity, high permeability, and susceptibility to chemical degradation. The increasing demand for durable and sustainable construction materials has led to increased attention in modifying cementitious materials through nanotechnology. This study investigates the influence of nano-silica (NS) and nano-alumina (NA) on the physical, strength-related, and durability characteristics of cement mortar to determine the optimum nanomaterial type and dosage for performance enhancement. Six mortar mixes, in addition to a reference mix, were designed and prepared by adding 1%, 1.5%, and 2% of the cement weight with NS and NA separately, an

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 12 2023
Journal Name
المجلة الدولية للتنمية في العلوم الاجتماعية والإنسانية
the Ottoman Empire in the Nineteenth Century (Iraq as a Model)the Ottoman Empire in the Nineteenth Century (Iraq as a Model)
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One of the most important features of American foreign activity during the second half of the 19th century was the encouragement of sending Protestant missionary missions to all countries around the world. The mission of these missions was facilitated by the weakened state of the Ottoman Empire, the increasing influence of European countries, and their interference in its internal affairs. Despite the Ottoman efforts to counter the activities of these missions, the American missionary missions adopted a well-planned strategy that suited the conditions of the region, aimed at achieving their goals through direct and indirect methods, including intervention in the field of education. These missions gave great importance to educational aspects

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-qadisiyah For Computer Science And Mathematics
Anemia Blood Cell localization Using Modified K- Means Algorithm
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Urology Annals
Modified snodgrass hypospadias repair using the lembert suturing technique
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Publication Date
Thu Sep 15 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Mechanical Engineering
Thermal Buckling of Laminated Plates using Modified Mantari Function
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Critical buckling temperature of laminated plate under thermal load varied linearly along the thickness, is developed using a higher-order shape function which depends on a parameter ‘‘m’’, which is improved to obtain results for thin and thick plates. Laminated plates’ equations of motion are obtained using virtual work principle and solved for simply supported boundary conditions. Angle and cross laminates thermal buckled mode shapes with different E1/E2 proportion, number of plies, (α2/α1) proportion, aspect ratios, are investigated. It is observed that this shape function gives thermal buckling for thin and thick plates but with m = 0.05 that agree well with other theories and linear distribution of temperature giv

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Delignification of Date Palm Fronds using Modified Organosolv Technique
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Abstract

  In this study, modified organic solvent (organosolv) method was applied to remove high lignin content in the date palm fronds (type Al-Zahdi) which was taken from the Iraqi gardens. In modified organosolv, lignocellulosic material is fractionated into its constituents (lignin, cellulose and hemicellulose). In this process, solvent (organic)-water is brought into contact with the lignocellulosic biomass at high temperature, using stainless steel reactor (digester). Therefor; most of hemicellulose will remove from the biomass, while the solid residue (mainly cellulose) can be used in various industrial fields. Three variables were studied in this process: temperature, ratio of ethano

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Prothrombin Time role in Head Injury & Intracranial Hematomas, A prospective Study of 325 cases
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Objective: Aimed to asses the role of PT estimation in early diagnosis and predicting the extent and the outcome of head injury with ICerH and/ or Contusion
Method :PT was measured by Digiclot 818
Group –1: One hundred consecutive head injured patients admitted at Neurosurgical and Al Ramadi teaching hospitals were initially estimated for prothrombin time and subsequently scanned
Group-2 : Two hundred twenty five consecutive non scanned head injured patients admitted to Neurosurgical and Al Ramadi teaching hospitals were estimated with prothrombin time at the time of insult and subsequently for the next two weeks Al – Kindy Col Med J 2012; Vol. 8 No. 1 P: 54
Clinical and neurological evaluation (GCS) score in addition to

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 31 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Intelligent Engineering And Systems
Credit Card Fraud Detection Using an Autoencoder Model with New Loss Function
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 23 2025
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Continuous Flow Injection-Turbidimetric Analysis for Determination of Cobalt (II) Ion in Alloys Using a Microcell with Irradiation Sources at 0–180° Using a Single Solar Cell as a Detector
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A cost-effective and efficient detector was created to conduct thorough turbidimetric measurements by reaction of Co (II) ion with calcium ferro cyanide to form bright green particulate, using the method of continuous flow injection analysis, the use of NAG-5SX1-1D-SSP Analyzer in determining cobalt (II) ion in a test for the validity of the new design. The NAG-5SX1-1D-SSP Analyzer is composed of five irradiation sources of white snow leds having the diameter of 10 mm with one solar cell of 55 mm length, 13.5 mm width. Using a selector switch to select the optimum voltage to be used which was 2.7 VDC. Under conditions of optimization, cobalt (II) ion was determined at 0.005–20 mmol. L–1(n = 23) while linearity dynamic range 0.005–7 mm

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