This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
The research aims to identify the obstacles facing the application of electronic management in our university libraries, including the central library of the University of Baghdad and the central library of Al-Mustansiriya University, the research sample, as they are among the main libraries that used electronic technologies in managing some of their work and in providing their services, and they have a website via the Internet. The research relied on the case study method to identify the obstacles by visiting the two libraries, interviewing their managers and employees responsible for the departments, and answering inquiries about the obstacles that prevent the application of electronic management in order to identify them and find appropr
... Show MoreShallow foundations are usually used for structures with light to moderate loads where the soil underneath can carry them. In some cases, soil strength and/or other properties are not adequate and require improvement using one of the ground improvement techniques. Stone column is one of the common improvement techniques in which a column of stone is installed vertically in clayey soils. Stone columns are usually used to increase soil strength and to accelerate soil consolidation by acting as vertical drains. Many researches have been done to estimate the behavior of the improved soil. However, none of them considered the effect of stone column geometry on the behavior of the circular footing. In this research, finite ele
... Show MoreTime series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ
... Show MoreGypseous soils are distributed in many regions in the world including Iraq, which cover more than (31%) of the surface area of the country. Existence of these soils, always with high gypsum content, caused difficult problems to the buildings and strategic projects due to dissolution and leaching of the gypsum caused by the action of water flow through soil mass. For the study, the gypseous soil was brought from Bahr Al-Najaf, Al-Najaf Governorate which is located in the middle of Iraq. The model pile was embedded in gypseous soil with 42% gypsum content. Compression axial model pile load tests have been carried out for model pile embedded in gypseous soil at initial degree of saturation of (7%) before and after soil satu
... Show MoreThe approach of greening existing buildings, is an urgent necessity, because the greening operation provides the speed and optimal efficiency in the environmental performance, as well as keeping up with the global green architecture revolution. Therefore, greening existing buildings in Iraq is important for trends towards renewable energies, because of what the country went through economic conditions and crises and wars which kept the country away from what took place globally in this issue. The research problem is: insufficient knowledge about the importance and the mechanism of the greening of existing buildings, including its environmental and economic dimensions, by rationalization of energy consumption and preservi
... Show MoreAcquisition provisions in Islamic jurisprudence
Reducing the drag force has become one of the most important concerns in the automotive industry. This study concentrated on reducing drag through use of some external modifications of passive flow control, such as vortex generators, rear under body diffuser slices and a rear wing spoiler. The study was performed at inlet velocity (V=10,20,30,40 m/s) which correspond to an incompressible car model length Reynolds numbers (Re=2.62×105, 5.23×105, 7.85×105 and 10.46×105), respectively and we studied their effect on the drag force. We also present a theoretical study finite volume method (FVM) of solvi
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models
... Show MoreThe study aims at:
1- Identifying the contemporary educational approaches in teaching arts.
2- The effectiveness of using the visual thinking strategy in photography subject for the first year students in the institute of fine arts/Holy city of Kadhimiyah.
The study sample is made of (30 ) first year students (in the institute of fine arts/in Holy city of Kadhimiyah) distributed into two groups, an experimental group made of (15) students and a control group having the same number of students in order to conduct the test. The test for the visual thinking strategy in the subject of photography has been designed and the validity and reliability for the research tool have been verified. In order to demonstrate the results of the