This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
In this paper, the effect of changes in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq was studied by estimating the error correction model (ECM) for monthly time series data for the period (2010-2015) . The Philips Perron was used to test the stationarity and also we used Engle and Granger to test the cointegration . we used cubic spline and local polynomial estimator to estimate regression function .The result show that local polynomial was better than cubic spline with the first level of cointegration.
Abstract
Should be the goal of Government controls, including environmental controls and safety laws to protect citizens from the harmful effects of negative secreted by human's additions and changes in the environment. and perhaps the protection aspects of the protection of citizens from the adverse effects of communications towers, including those produced by towers of health effects. The people the right to choose the nature of the physical environment, which should not be imposed on them by others. Communications towers are one of the main problems that have been
... Show MoreThis research sheds light on those discrepancies in the use of ornaments, adornment and perfumes, as well as the art of cosmetics, in two important civilizations, namely, the Mesopotamian civilization as the earlier civilization, and the civilization of Yemen, which represents the first Arab civilization. Through the foregoing, our research includes two topics, the first topic included the history of the use of decorations, ornaments and perfumes in the civilization of Mesopotamia, while the second topic included the study of ornaments, adornment and cosmetic art in the ancient civilization of Yemen. And then the research came out with a number of conclusions that the researcher considers very important to highlight the differences and f
... Show MoreThis study relates to the estimation of a simultaneous equations system for the Tobit model where the dependent variables ( ) are limited, and this will affect the method to choose the good estimator. So, we will use new estimations methods different from the classical methods, which if used in such a case, will produce biased and inconsistent estimators which is (Nelson-Olson) method and Two- Stage limited dependent variables(2SLDV) method to get of estimators that hold characteristics the good estimator .
That is , parameters will be estim
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Abstract:
The models of time series often suffer from the problem of the existence of outliers that accompany the data collection process for many reasons, their existence may have a significant impact on the estimation of the parameters of the studied model. Access to highly efficient estimators is one of the most important stages of statistical analysis, And it is therefore important to choose the appropriate methods to obtain good estimators. The aim of this research is to compare the ordinary estimators and the robust estimators of the estimation of the parameters of
... Show MoreThe nucleon momentum distributions (NMD) and elastic electron scattering form factors of the ground state for some 1f-2p-shell nuclei, such as 58Ni, 60Ni, 62Ni, and 64Ni
isotopes have been calculated in the framework of the coherent fluctuation model (CFM) and expressed in terms of the weight function lf(x)l2 . The weight function (fluctuation function) has been related to the nucleon density distribution (NDD) of the nuclei and determined from the theory and experiment. The NDD is derived from a simple method based on the use of the single particle wave functions of the harmonic oscillator potential and the occupation numbers of the states. The feature of the l
Sewer sediment deposition is an important aspect as it relates to several operational and environmental problems. It concerns municipalities as it affects the sewer system and contributes to sewer failure which has a catastrophic effect if happened in trunks or interceptors. Sewer rehabilitation is a costly process and complex in terms of choosing the method of rehabilitation and individual sewers to be rehabilitated. For such a complex process, inspection techniques assist in the decision-making process; though, it may add to the total expenditure of the project as it requires special tools and trained personnel. For developing countries, Inspection could prohibit the rehabilitation proceeds. In this study, the researchers propos
... Show MoreIn this paper, the Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to compare the robust circular S estimator with the circular Least squares method in the case of no outlier data and in the case of the presence of an outlier in the data through two trends, the first is contaminant with high inflection points that represents contaminant in the circular independent variable, and the second the contaminant in the vertical variable that represents the circular dependent variable using three comparison criteria, the median standard error (Median SE), the median of the mean squares of error (Median MSE), and the median of the mean cosines of the circular residuals (Median A(k)). It was concluded that the method of least squares is better than the
... Show MoreIn this work, a new development of predictive voltage-tracking control algorithm for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFCs) model, using a neural network technique based on-line auto-tuning intelligent algorithm was proposed. The aim of proposed robust feedback nonlinear neural predictive voltage controller is to find precisely and quickly the optimal hydrogen partial pressure action to control the stack terminal voltage of the (PEMFC) model for N-step ahead prediction. The Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization (CPSO) implemented as a stable and robust on-line auto-tune algorithm to find the optimal weights for the proposed predictive neural network controller to improve system performance in terms of fast-tracking de
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