This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
In this paper, the theoretical cross section in pre-equilibrium nuclear reaction has been studied for the reaction at energy 22.4 MeV. Ericson’s formula of partial level density PLD and their corrections (William’s correction and spin correction) have been substituted in the theoretical cross section and compared with the experimental data for nucleus. It has been found that the theoretical cross section with one-component PLD from Ericson’s formula when doesn’t agree with the experimental value and when . There is little agreement only at the high value of energy range with the experimental cross section. The theoretical cross section that depends on the one-component William's formula and on-component corrected to spi
... Show MoreIn the current paper, the effect of fear in three species Beddington–DeAngelis food chain model is investigated. A three species food chain model incorporating Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed, where the growth rate in the first and second level decreases due to existence of predator in the upper level. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are studied. All the possible equilibrium points are determined. The local as well as global stability of the system are investigated. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The local bifurcation analysis of the system is carried out. Finally, numerical simulations are used t
The theory of probabilistic programming may be conceived in several different ways. As a method of programming it analyses the implications of probabilistic variations in the parameter space of linear or nonlinear programming model. The generating mechanism of such probabilistic variations in the economic models may be due to incomplete information about changes in demand, production and technology, specification errors about the econometric relations presumed for different economic agents, uncertainty of various sorts and the consequences of imperfect aggregation or disaggregating of economic variables. In this Research we discuss the probabilistic programming problem when the coefficient bi is random variable
... Show MoreThe state did not witness the emergence of independent bodies because of the nature of the ruling regimes that were characterized by political tyranny represented by the king at the time, as is the case with Greece and the Greeks and Persia and the Romans and others. As for the Islamic state, which emerged later, it saw the emergence of what looks like independent bodies that we see today, There was the so-called Diwan Al-Hesba and the Ombudsman's Office as an independent body from the Islamic State, which operated independently to support the oppressed and the equitable distribution of financial resources, even though it was headed by well-known governors of justice and honesty. A state in the modern era, many countries, especially in E
... Show MoreStatic reservoir modeling is the interacting and analysis of the geological data to visualize the reservoir framework by three-dimensional model and distribute the static reservoir properties. The Petrel E&P software used to incorporate the data. The interpreted log data and core report used in distribution of petrophysical properties of porosity, water saturation and permeability for Zubair reservoir in Luhais oil field.
The reservoir discretized to 274968 cells in increments of 300, 200 and 1 meter in the direction of X, Y, and Z respectively. The geostatistical approach used in the distribution of the properties of porosity and water saturation overall the reservoir units. The permeability has been calculated
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This research deals will the declared production planning operation in the general company of planting oils, which have great role in production operations management who had built mathematical model for correct non-linear programming according to discounting operation during raw materials or half-made materials purchasing operation which concentration of six main products by company but discount included just three products of raw materials, and there were six months taken from the 1st half of 2014 as a planning period has been chosen . Simulated annealing algorithm application on non-linear model which been more difficulty than possible solution when imposed restric
... Show MoreThere is confusion between the concept of honesty and credibility arguing that their meaning is the same. ‘Credibility; is derived from the truth which means evidence of honesty, while ‘honesty’ means not lying and matching reality. The study of credibility begins globally at the end of the fifties of the second millennium to see the decline and refrain from reading newspapers, while it was studied in the Arab world in 1987. Global studies find several meanings of the concept of ‘credibility’ such as accuracy, completeness, transfer facts, impartiality, balance, justice, objectivity, trust, honesty, respect the freedom of individuals and community, and taking into account the traditions and norms.
Credibility has two dimens
The European Unit has never been affected by a serious phenomena as the phenomena of the advancing of the far right parties. Though these parties vary in their impact in their original countries, they agree on one important issue which is the deconstruction of the European unit and limiting its supernational powers. These increasing popular parties aim at more national independence in decision making away from the decisions taken by Brussels. Moreover, they criticize the financial and administrative corruption accompanied many of the rescuing procedures directed for example towards countries like Greece and Spain during the international economic crisis. This failure nourishes many of the negative feelings against the European unit which
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