This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
The mix promotion important to any organization in general, has been selected promotional mix tools in this research to identify the role in maximizing the Organization of sales growth business, which included the research problem several fundamental questions about the role of each promotional tool of advertising, public relations and personal selling and sales promotion direct marketing within the promotional mix in the promotion of business sales organization. The research aims to provide theoretical and field organizations surveyed about the role played by the mix promo in sales growth, and importance of research on the identification of more than promotional tools impact on sales gr
... Show MoreThe importance of forecasting has emerged in the economic field in order to achieve economic growth, as forecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, and accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges in which we seek to make the best decision. The aim of the research is to suggest the use of hybrid models for forecasting the daily crude oil prices as the hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is long short term memory (LSTM) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU) which represents deep learning models. It was found that the proposed h
... Show MoreForecasting is one of the important topics in the analysis of time series, as the importance of forecasting in the economic field has emerged in order to achieve economic growth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of time series is one of the most important challenges that we seek to make the best decision, the aim of the research is to suggest employing hybrid models to predict daily crude oil prices. The hybrid model consists of integrating the linear component, which represents Box Jenkins models, and the non-linear component, which represents one of the methods of artificial intelligence, which is the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR) algorithm and it was shown that the proposed hybrid models in the predicti
... Show MoreThe Artificial Neural Network methodology is a very important & new subjects that build's the models for Analyzing, Data Evaluation, Forecasting & Controlling without depending on an old model or classic statistic method that describe the behavior of statistic phenomenon, the methodology works by simulating the data to reach a robust optimum model that represent the statistic phenomenon & we can use the model in any time & states, we used the Box-Jenkins (ARMAX) approach for comparing, in this paper depends on the received power to build a robust model for forecasting, analyzing & controlling in the sod power, the received power come from
... Show MoreThe transverse electron scattering form factors have been studied for low –lying excited states of 7Li nucleus. These states are specified by J? T= (0.478MeV), (4.63MeV) and (6.68MeV). The transitions to these states are taking place by both isoscalar and isovector components. These form factors have been analyzed in the framework of the multi-nucleon configuration mixing of harmonic oscillator shell model with size parameter brms=1.74fm. The universal two-body of Cohen-Kurath is used to generate the 1p-shell wave functions. The core polarization effects are included in the calculations through effective g-factors and resolved many discrepancies with experiments. A higher configuration effect outside the 1p-shell model space, such
... Show MoreIn this study predication of crop coefficient (Kc) values through growing season for cucumber plant was conducted. A field experiment was carried out at AL Yusufiyah Township, in the Governorate of Baghdad, (latitude: 33°09' N, longitude: 44°24' E, and altitude: 34 m) in medium loam soil. The plant was cultivated inside the greenhouse under subsurface trickle irrigation system with soil water retention technology (SWRT) during the growing season 2017. Crop coefficient values were guessed from the direct method of measurements of daily crop evapotranspiration, while reference evapotranspiration was obtained from Agricultural Meteorology Project - Station of Baghdad - Abu-Ghraib. The obtained results were showed that crop coeffici
... Show MoreForecasting has become common process and reality. Since man has found multiple forms of simple predictive predictions, fruitful predictive results have emerged, such as weather forecasting or trading on stock exchange. The research was organized by defining the problem, which was manifested by the question:
(What is the prediction in global logo design methods?)
The aim of the research: (revealing design prediction in the methods of global logos). The theoretical framework was: (the concept of prediction in the design of global logos), (methods of global logos), (types of prediction) and then were attached to indicators, results and conclusions, including:
- The color value of international logos came with human needs: a
The growing phenomenon of drug abuse in light of the increasing psychological and social pressures experienced by members of the community of wars and crises of the Iraqi society in the middle of the last decade was Andv societies that are free of the phenomenon of drug addiction, but with a high level events, wars and economic crises and the deterioration of the situation security and lack of control on the border with the neighboring countries, it has become a breeding ground and the focus of drug-smuggling gangs, all of which led to the spread of drug abuse, especially among the youth category, and undoubtedly the seriousness of drug abuse Taatmd negative community impacts, Valmtaati drug becomes a member unproductive and unable to ea
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