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ARIMA-NN Model for Drugs Sales Forecasting in the United States
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This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 09 2025
Journal Name
Resources
Enhancing Reservoir Modeling via the Black Oil Model for Horizontal Wells: South Rumaila Oilfield, Iraq
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Horizontal wells have revolutionized hydrocarbon production by enhancing recovery efficiency and reducing environmental impact. This paper presents an enhanced Black Oil Model simulator, written in Visual Basic, for three-dimensional two-phase (oil and water) flow through porous media. Unlike most existing tools, this simulator is customized for horizontal well modeling and calibrated using extensive historical data from the South Rumaila Oilfield, Iraq. The simulator first achieves a strong match with historical pressure data (1954–2004) using vertical wells, with an average deviation of less than 5% from observed pressures, and is then applied to forecast the performance of hypothetical horizontal wells (2008–2011). The result

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Publication Date
Fri May 08 2026
Journal Name
Statistics, Optimization & Information Computing
A Fuzzy ARDL Model for Estimating the Dynamic Relationship between Government Revenues and Fiscal Balance
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The relationship between government revenues and the fiscal balance represents a central pillar in the analysis of fiscal sustainability. However, its modeling faces a fundamental challenge in the form of structural uncertainty, which is not captured by point estimates in traditional models such as ARDL, as these models assume structural stability that is inconsistent with the nature of rentier economies. The current study aims to develop a fuzzy framework by constructing a Fuzzy Autoregressive Distributed Lag (FARDL) model. This is achieved through integrating the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with fuzzy logic theory, thereby enabling the incorporation of uncertainty into the inherent structure of the economic rela

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 07 2026
Journal Name
Twms Journal Of Applied And Engineering Mathematics
THE QUANTILE GARCH-DISTRIBUTED LAG (QGDL) FRAMEWORK: A UNIFIED MODEL FOR HIGH-VOLATILITY TIME SERIES
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TWMS Journal of Applied and Engineering Mathematics | Volume: 16 Issue: 9

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 03 2020
Journal Name
مجلة القادسية في الآداب والعلوم التربوية
The Effectiveness of a Teaching Style Based on the Brunner Model in the Achievement and Retention of Grammar Material for Students of the Arabic Language Department at the Faculty of Education for Girls
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This research aims to find out the impact on the receptive style according to the specimen in the collection of material Brawner and retention as students at the Arabic Department at the Faculty of Education for Girls. For confirmation from the goal of the research, the researcher placed two hypotheses, one to two for collections and one for pods. - chosen as the College of Education for Girls / Department of Arabic language for the application of choice Intentionally search experience for reasons of researcher he is teaching them and thus ensures cooperation of teachers and students in them. - selected Division (b) of the fourth grade students of the Arabic language section at random to represent the experimental group, while the Division

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
A Proposed Training Program for School Leaders in the Sultanate of Oman on the Planning Practices of the Kaufman Model in Light of the Needs and Challenges of Reality
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The study aims to build a proposed training program for school leaders in the Sultanate of Oman on the planning practices of the Kaufman model in light of the needs and challenges of reality. It also aims to identify the challenges facing school leaders in practicing the stages of strategic planning. To achieve these objectives, the study adopted the descriptive approach due to its suitability to the nature of the study. A questionnaire was used to collect the needed data. The study sample included (225) individuals from school principals, their assistants and senior teachers in post-basic education in the Sultanate of Oman. After processing the data statistically, the study concluded that the reality of planning practices for school lea

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Selection of the initial value of the time series generating the first-order self-regression model in simulation modeAnd their impact on the accuracy of the model
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In this paper, compared eight methods for generating the initial value and the impact of these methods to estimate the parameter of a autoregressive model, as was the use of three of the most popular methods to estimate the model and the most commonly used by researchers MLL method, Barg method  and the least squares method and that using the method of simulation model  first order autoregressive through the design of a number of simulation experiments and the different sizes of the samples.

                  

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 03 2026
Journal Name
Journal Mustansiriyah Of Sports Science
The effect of using Daniel's model for people with two types of brain control (left and right) to learn the skill of the Cartwheel in artistic gymnastics for second-stage students
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The research problem focused through the researcher's experience in the gymnastics game and the lack of use of educational models that give the student an important role in the educational process, so it became necessary to identify the type of prevailing style for students, and the need for diversity in the use of educational models based on scientific theories, including the Daniel Document model. Based on three theories of learning, which are structural, behavioral, and meaningful learning. The research aimed to identify the effect of using the Daniel model for people with two types of brain control (left and right) to learn the skill of the Cartwheel in artistic gymnastics for students of the second stage. The researcher used the experi

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Mechanics Of Continua And Mathematical Sciences
NEW ROBUST ESTIMATOR OF CHANGE POINT IN SEGMENTED REGRESSION MODEL FOR BED-LOAD OF RIVERS
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Semiotic criteria for analyzing religious symbols in press reports Qantara news site as a model
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The report includes a group of symbols that are employed within a framework that gives a language of greater impact. This research discusses the problem of the semiotic employment of religious symbols in press reports published in the electronic press across two levels: Reading to perceive the visual message in its abstract form, and the second for re-understanding and interpretation, as this level gives semantics to reveal the implicit level of media messages through a set of semiotic criteria on which it was based to cut texts to reach the process of understanding and interpretation.

The report includes a group of symbols that are employed within a framework that gives a language of greater impact. This research discusses the p

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Comparative Medicine
Model of traumatic spinal cord injury for evaluating pharmacologic treatments in cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fasicularis)
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Here we present the results of experiments involving cynomolgus macaques, in which a model of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI) was created by using a balloon catheter inserted into the epidural space. Prior to the creation of the lesion, we inserted an EMG recording device to facilitate measurement of tail movement and muscle activity before and after TSCI. This model is unique in that the impairment is limited to the tail: the subjects do not experience limb weakness, bladder impairment, or bowel dysfunction. In addition, 4 of the 6 subjects received a combination treatment comprising thyrotropin releasing hormone, selenium, and vitamin E after induction of experimental TSCI. The subjects tolerated the implantation of the recording devi

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