This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.
Recently Genetic Algorithms (GAs) have frequently been used for optimizing the solution of estimation problems. One of the main advantages of using these techniques is that they require no knowledge or gradient information about the response surface. The poor behavior of genetic algorithms in some problems, sometimes attributed to design operators, has led to the development of other types of algorithms. One such class of these algorithms is compact Genetic Algorithm (cGA), it dramatically reduces the number of bits reqyuired to store the poulation and has a faster convergence speed. In this paper compact Genetic Algorithm is used to optimize the maximum likelihood estimator of the first order moving avergae model MA(1). Simulation results
... Show MoreIn the present article, we implement the new iterative method proposed by Daftardar-Gejji and Jafari (NIM) [V. Daftardar-Gejji, H. Jafari, An iterative method for solving nonlinear functional equations, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 316 (2006) 753-763] to solve two problems; the first one is the problem of spread of a non-fatal disease in a population which is assumed to have constant size over the period of the epidemic, and the other one is the problem of the prey and predator. The results demonstrate that the method has many merits such as being derivative-free, overcome the difficulty arising in calculating Adomian polynomials to handle the nonlinear terms in Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM), does not require to calculate Lagrange multiplier a
... Show MoreThe issue of the research lies in the non-representation of the models developed for the communication process in the interaction and networking processes through social media, as the research sought to build a network model of communication according to the specific data and features of social media platforms in order to reach a special generalization to understand how the process of networking operates in cyberspace.
The researcher followed the analytical survey approach as she described the communication models outwardly in order to be able to build a networked communication model that represents the flow of post-reactive communication. Therefore, it has been named "Nebula - Sadeem" after the concept of post-space and cosmic g
... Show MoreAbstract
The issue of the protection of the environment is a shared responsibility between several destinations and sectors, and constitutes a main subject in which they can achieve sustainable development. In the sectors of government programs can be set up towards the establishment of the government sector to the green environment, so to be the implementati
... Show MoreThis paper presents an analytical study for the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow of a generalized Burgers’ fluid in an annular pipe. Closed from solutions for velocity is obtained by using finite Hankel transform and discrete Laplace transform of the sequential fractional derivatives. Finally, the figures are plotted to show the effects of different parameters on the velocity profile.
Background: Accurate measurement of a patient’s height and weight is an essential part of diagnosis and therapy, but there is some controversy as to how to calculate the height and weight of patients with disabilities. Objective: This study aims to use anthropometric measurements (arm span, length of leg, chest circumference, and waist circumference) to find a model (alternatives) that can allow the calculation of the height and the body weight of patients with disabilities. Additionally, a model for the prediction of weight and height measurements of patients with disabilities was established. Method: Four hander patients aged 20-80 years were enrolled in this study and divided into two groups, 210 (52.5%) male and 190 (47.5%) fe
... Show MoreMonaural source separation is a challenging issue due to the fact that there is only a single channel available; however, there is an unlimited range of possible solutions. In this paper, a monaural source separation model based hybrid deep learning model, which consists of convolution neural network (CNN), dense neural network (DNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN), will be presented. A trial and error method will be used to optimize the number of layers in the proposed model. Moreover, the effects of the learning rate, optimization algorithms, and the number of epochs on the separation performance will be explored. Our model was evaluated using the MIR-1K dataset for singing voice separation. Moreover, the proposed approach achi
... Show MoreThe Mauddud reservoir, Khabaz oil field which is considered one of the main carbonate reservoirs in the north of Iraq. Recognizing carbonate reservoirs represents challenges to engineers because reservoirs almost tend to be tight and overall heterogeneous. The current study concerns with geological modeling of the reservoir is an oil-bearing with the original gas cap. The geological model is establishing for the reservoir by identifying the facies and evaluating the petrophysical properties of this complex reservoir, and calculate the amount of hydrocarbon. When completed the processing of data by IP interactive petrophysics software, and the permeability of a reservoir was calculated using the concept of hydraulic units then, there
... Show MoreMachine learning models have recently provided great promise in diagnosis of several ophthalmic disorders, including keratoconus (KCN). Keratoconus, a noninflammatory ectatic corneal disorder characterized by progressive cornea thinning, is challenging to detect as signs may be subtle. Several machine learning models have been proposed to detect KCN, however most of the models are supervised and thus require large well-annotated data. This paper proposes a new unsupervised model to detect KCN, based on adapted flower pollination algorithm (FPA) and the k-means algorithm. We will evaluate the proposed models using corneal data collected from 5430 eyes at different stages of KCN severity (1520 healthy, 331 KCN1, 1319 KCN2, 1699 KCN3 a
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