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ARIMA-NN Model for Drugs Sales Forecasting in the United States
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This study proposes a new version of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) denoted by ARIMA-NN. The new model incorporates a multi-layer perceptron with matrix multiplication within a feed-forward network. The logistic, hyperbolic tangent (tanh), and sigmoid activation functions are used for weight updates in ARIMA-NN. A new forecasting algorithm is proposed, and one-step and multiple-steps forecasting procedures are rigorously analyzed. The proposed model was evaluated against existing forecasting model using performance metrics such as the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to assess its effectiveness. The U.S. Census Bureau (www.census.gov) provides a data set of monthly drug sales spanning ten years (2014-2024), which is utilized in the study. The ARIMA-NN model is applied to generate forecasts for drug sales in the U.S. for the next four years to demonstrate the models' utility and efficacy. All the computations and visualizations are performed using various R packages in version 4.3.2.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role Of Quality Management In Enhancing The Efficiency And Effectiveness Of Settling Accounts Tax(Empirical Study You Jordan Income &Sales Tax Department
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This research aims to investigate the role of quality management in enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of settling accounts tax in terms of achieving satisfaction in charge of the hand and the increase of tax revenue on the other hand, by testing the main hypothesis of the study and the sub-hypotheses in the Income and Sales Tax Department in Jordan for the period 2000-20

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Scopus
Publication Date
Tue Oct 23 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare some wavelet estimators for parameters in the linear regression model with errors follows ARFIMA model.
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The aim of this research is to estimate the parameters of the linear regression model with errors following ARFIMA model by using wavelet method depending on maximum likelihood and approaching general least square as well as ordinary least square. We use the estimators in practical application on real data, which were the monthly data of Inflation and Dollar exchange rate obtained from the (CSO) Central Statistical organization for the period from 1/2005 to 12/2015. The results proved that (WML) was the most reliable and efficient from the other estimators, also the results provide that the changing of fractional difference parameter (d) doesn’t effect on the results.

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Apr 08 1999
Journal Name
Abhath Al- Yarmouk [basic Sciences And Engineering]
Model for Predicting the Cracking Moment in Structural Concrete Members
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Publication Date
Tue May 16 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Statistical Model for Predicting the Optimum Gypsum Content in Concrete
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The problem of internal sulfate attack in concrete is widespread in Iraq and neighboring countries.This is because of the high sulfate content usually present in sand and gravel used in it. In the present study the total effective sulfate in concrete was used to calculate the optimum SO3 content. Regression models were developed based on linear regression analysis to predict the optimum SO3 content usually referred as (O.G.C) in concrete. The data is separated to 155 for the development of the models and 37 for checking the models. Eight models were built for 28-days age. Then a late age (greater than 28-days) model was developed based on the predicted optimum SO3 content of 28-days and late age. Eight developed models were built for all

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Choose the best model for building life tables in Iraq
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Demography or population studies or demography is the science that is based on the different characteristics of the population scientific study, and represent a population studies principled way to understand the population of society, in addition to verification of the population in a given area determine the reason for the increase or decrease this number from the previous statistical As these studies estimate future trends for the occurrence of demographic change in terms of birth, death and migration That the registration of deaths of paramount importance narrated that way can the demographic reality of the population analysis, and coverage of the health authorities' needs and enable government institutions of decision-making

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 05 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Ecohumanism
Early Warning System Means and Tools in the African Union and the Organization of American States: An Analytical Study
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Disasters, crises and wars are a serious and unforeseen threat. The capacity of the early warning system to monitor such crises is therefore crucial. The ability to make quick decisions in a short time is necessary to prevent crises from occurring. Here, the role and effectiveness of the early warning system emerges through its ability to monitor, record and analyze signals. It can also be evidenced by its ability to immediately convey these indicators to the concerned authorities to take measures that ensure these conflicts and disasters do not worsen. The system’s ability to detect disasters and crises, identify the crisis and its type, and use the scientific method and common sense to deal with it is something that contributes to findi

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The use of ultra-violet visible spectroscopy to determination some antibiotics beta-lactam in some drugs
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This research aims to use chemical reaction to determine some of beta lactam antibiotics which include cephalexin and ceftriaxone in some pharmaceuticals by formation Prussian Blue complexes and using them for the UV-Vis., determination of drugs at wavelengths range (700- 720)nm by reaction them with FeCl3 in the presence of reagent K3[Fe(CN)6] in acid media . The optimal experimental conditions for the complex formation have been studied such as volume of HCl , K3[Fe(CN)6] , FeCl3 ,temperature and reaction time .Analytical figures of merits obtained on applying the developed procedure for cephalexin and ceftriaxone resp. are Linearity,(2-10),(1-7)?g.ml-1 LOD(0.0601,0.0330) ?g.ml-1. The de

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 09 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Safety Profile of Biological Drugs in Clinical Practice: A Retrospective Pharmacovigilance Study
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Biological drugs have an active substance that is made by a living organism or derived from a living organism. They are one of the important therapy options used in a wide range of diseases especially life-threatening diseases. Biological therapy opens new opportunities for treating different diseases for which drug therapy is minimal, but they have considerable differences in the safety consequences in comparison with non-biological drugs. The aim of the current study was to assess the post-marketing safety profile of biological drugs used in Iraqi hospitals by the analysis of the reported adverse drug reactions regarding their severity, seriousness, preventability, expectedness, and outcome. It is a retrospective study of the individu

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