This paper presents a grey model GM(1,1) of the first rank and a variable one and is the basis of the grey system theory , This research dealt  properties of grey model and a set of methods to estimate parameters of the grey model GM(1,1)  is the least square Method (LS) , weighted least square method (WLS), total least square method (TLS) and gradient descent method  (DS). These methods were compared based on two types of standards: Mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and after comparison using simulation the best method was applied to real data represented by the rate of consumption of the two types of oils a Heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and has been applied several tests to

‎  Since the first outbreak in Wuhan, China, in December 31, 2019, COVID-19    pandemic  ‎has been spreading to many countries in the world. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused a ‎major global crisis, with 554,767 total confirmed cases, 484,570 total recovered cases, and ‎‎12,306 deaths in Iraq as of February 2, 2020. In the absence of any effective therapeutics or drugs ‎and with an unknown epidemiological life cycle, predictive mathematical models can aid in ‎the understanding of both control and management of coronavirus disease. Among the important ‎factors that helped the rapid spread of the ep

     A partial temporary immunity SIR epidemic model involv nonlinear treatment rate is proposed and studied. The basic reproduction number  is determined. The local and global stability of all equilibria of the model are analyzed. The conditions for occurrence of local bifurcation in the proposed epidemic model are established. Finally, numerical simulation is used to confirm our obtained analytical results and specify the control set of parameters that affect the dynamics of the model.

Purpose: The research aims to estimate models representing phenomena that follow the logic of circular (angular) data, accounting for the 24-hour periodicity in measurement. Theoretical framework: The regression model is developed to account for the periodic nature of the circular scale, considering the periodicity in the dependent variable y, the explanatory variables x, or both. Design/methodology/approach: Two estimation methods were applied: a parametric model, represented by the Simple Circular Regression (SCR) model, and a nonparametric model, represented by the Nadaraya-Watson Circular Regression (NW) model. The analysis used real data from 50 patients at Al-Kindi Teaching Hospital in Baghdad. Findings: The Mean Circular Erro

Total Electron Content measurements derived from Athens station ionograms (ITEC),
located near Iraq, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 (July 2009- April 2010),
according to availability of data, are compared with the latest version of the International
Reference Ionosphere model, IRI-2012 (IRI TEC), using two options (NeQuick, IRI01-
Corr) for topside electron density.
The results obtained from both (ITEC and IRI TEC) techniques were similar, where
correlation coefficients between them are very high. Generally, the IRI predictions
overestimate the ITEC values.

The services provided by the municipal institutions of the basic things needed by the man in his daily life and the evolution of cities basically depends on these services and therefore has paid most of the world's attention to this vital facility and give him the biggest concern for the welfare of the citizens, as is the research problem that there is no program scrutiny to evaluate the performance of municipal institutions contribute to measuring the efficiency and effectiveness of the services provided and was based on research on the premise that the preparation of the existence of audit program to evaluate the performance of municipal institutions contribute to measuring the efficiency and effectiveness of services provided has reac

The research aims to identify the psychological and health risks that a child might be exposed to by playing with hazardous toys such as pellet guns. To this end, the researcher has visited Ibn Al-Haytham Eye Hospital in Baghdad, the emergency department to figure out the rate of injuries in Children for the consecutive years (2017-2018) and the first Month of (2019). The psychological risks as a result of disability are represented by the inability to accommodate the surrounding environment well. Additionally, the child experiences a kind of tension, conflict, and going in psychological crises through introversion, isolation, withdrawal tendencies, and poor conformity with himself and the Society.

New metal complexes of the ligand 4-[5-(2-hydoxy-phenyl)-[1,3,4- oxadiazol -2-ylimino methyl]-1,5-dimethyl-2-phenyl-1,2-dihydro-pyrazol-3-one (L) with the metal ions Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II) were prepared in alcoholic medium. The Schiff base was synthesized through condensate of [4-antipyrincarboxaldehyde] with[2-amino-5-(2-hydroxy-phenyl-1,3,4- oxadiazol] in alcoholic medium . Two tetradentate Schiff base ligand were used for complexation upon two metal ions of Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+ and Zn2+ as dineucler formula M2L2.4H2O. The metal complexes were characterized by FTIR Spectroscopy, electronic Spectroscopy, elemental analysis, magnetic susceptidbility measurements, and also the ligand was characterized by 1H-NMR spectra, and m

In this paper has been building a statistical model of the Saudi financial market using GARCH models that take into account Volatility in prices during periods of circulation, were also study the effect of the type of random error distribution of the time series on the accuracy of the statistical model, as it were studied two types of statistical distributions are normal distribution and the T distribution. and found by application of a measured data that the best model for the Saudi market is GARCH (1,1) model when the random error distributed t. student's .