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Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting Accuracy Using HMPCS and Machine Learning Techniques: An Applied Study
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Background Solar irradiance is a nonlinear and intermittent function, which makes accurate forecasting of solar power generation a challenge. The high variability of meteorological conditions is not well represented by conventional atmospheric models, thus hampering forecasting skill and model robustness. In this work, an advanced hybridization of multi-population cuckoo search (HMPCS) algorithm with machine learning (ML) methods is developed to enhance the prediction performance of photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting with more reliability. Methods In this study, a hybrid modeling framework is proposed, called HMPCS–ML framework which captures the global search capacity of HMPCS and predictive power of sophisticated ML models (Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM)). Optimizing hyperparameters by balancing exploration and exploitation, the algorithm runs on multi-populations through Lévy flight randomization. Interpolation, normalization, and temporal windowing were utilized to preprocess synthetic meteorological and irradiance datasets. We evaluated the framework by comparing commonly used statistical measures (MAE, RMSE, MAPE, R 2 ). Results Moreover, experimental analyses showed that HMPCS–ML models significantly outperformed baseline approaches (Grid Search and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)). Results showed that the optimized LSTM+HMPCS model outperformed other models in terms of lowest RMSE (0.139) and highest R 2 (0.93), reflecting the LSTM model’s good fit with practical observations and generalization ability. The optimal LightGBM + HMPCS variant also proved to be consistently better, with reduced error (23% lower than unoptimized models). Conclusions In this regard, the HMPCS–ML framework is a powerful and efficient solution for the optimization of solar power forecasting, improving the predictive performance and calculation efficiency. This research shows the potential of hybrid metaheuristic–ML integration for renewable energy prediction and smart-grid applications in general and indicates further extensions to multi-objective and Transformer-based architectures.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Study the physical and optoelectronic properties of silver gallium indium selenide AgGaInSe2/Si heterojunction solar cell
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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Feasibility Study of a Solar Flat Plate Collector for Domestic and Commercial Applications under Iraq Climate
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Study of Composite Concrete Castellated Double Channel Beams with Strengthening Techniques
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Current numerical research was devoted to investigating the effect of castellated steel beams without and with strengthening. The composite concrete asymmetrical double hot rolled steel channels bolted back to back to obtain a built-up I-shape form are used in this study. The top half part of the steel is smaller than the bottom half part, and the two parts were connected by bolting and welding. The ABAQUS/2019 program employed the same length and conditions of loading for four models: The first model is the reference without castellated and strengthening; the second model was castellated without strengthened; the third model was castellated and strengthened with reactive powder concrete encased in the

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Study of Energy Gains by Orientation of Solar Collectors in Baghdad City
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Firstly, in this study, a brief updated description and applications of different solar collectors used in renewable energy systems for supplying electric and thermal energy was presented. Secondly, an attempt was made to utilize tilting orientation of solar collector for maximizing collector energy with time in respect to horizontal orientation. For energy calculation, global solar radiation was used since they are directly related.  For that purpose, field measurements of half-hourly radiation on two flat panels of tilting and horizontal orientations were carried out throughout 8-month period under local climate of Baghdad. Then, energy gain and radiation level averages were calculated based on the field radiation

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Theoretical study of electronic transfer current rate at dye-sensitized solar cells
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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2025
Journal Name
Energy Reports
Experimental parametrical study of sectioned tilted tubular solar still equipped with hydrogel
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Solar distillers are a sustainable and simple solution for addressing water scarcity, but their limited productivity restricts their effectiveness. This work aimed to assess the thermal performance of a novel tracked, tilted, hexagonal tubular solar still (HTSS) of four-sectioned U-channel receiver. Two identical HTSSs were side-to-side tested in Baghdad-Iraq (33.3°N, 43.3°E) from June to September 2024. The thermal evaluation of single-axis tracking solar still, tilted at (5° to 15°) with the horizontal axis and charged with and without hydrogel beads for water depth of 60 mm. The still's thermal performance is assessed by analyzing heat transfer coefficients, energy and exergy efficiencies, as well as conducting cost and environment

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Int. J. Agricult.
FORECASTING THE EXCHANGE RATES OF THE US DOLLAR AGAINST THE IRAQI DINAR USING THE BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY IN TIME SERIES WITH PRACTICAL APPLICATION
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The goal of the study is to discover the best model for forecasting the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar by analyzing time series using the Box Jenkis approach, which is one of the most significant subjects in the statistical sciences employed in the analysis. The exchange rate of the dollar is considered one of the most important determinants of the relative level of the health of the country's economy. It is considered the most watched, analyzed and manipulated measure by the government. There are factors affecting in determining the exchange rate, the most important of which are the amount of money, interest rate and local inflation global balance of payments. The data for the research that represents the exchange r

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Implementation within strategic planning and its impact on banking service quality: (An applied research on a sample of Iraqi banks)
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In the midst of rapid changes and difficultiesand the tough competition faced by the Iraqi banks, it has become necessary to focus on a significant aspect of administrative work; that is strategic planning and the key role of implementation within this process in improving the banking service quality. It has emerged as a critical and main competitive weapon for distinguishing the services provided by banks from each other in an effort to participate in increasing market share of the bank in question in question; in its growth, continuation and profit increase.

The research has addressed the relation between the independent variable (implementation within strategic planning), and the dependent variable (banking service quality and

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Support Vector Machine Classifiers Using Stochastic Gradient Descent with Application to Leukemia Cancer Type Dataset
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Support vector machines (SVMs) are supervised learning models that analyze data for classification or regression. For classification, SVM is widely used by selecting an optimal hyperplane that separates two classes. SVM has very good accuracy and extremally robust comparing with some other classification methods such as logistics linear regression, random forest, k-nearest neighbor and naïve model. However, working with large datasets can cause many problems such as time-consuming and inefficient results. In this paper, the SVM has been modified by using a stochastic Gradient descent process. The modified method, stochastic gradient descent SVM (SGD-SVM), checked by using two simulation datasets. Since the classification of different ca

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Optical Fiber Technology
Enhancing refractive index sensitivity using micro-tapered long-period fiber grating inscribed in biconical tapered fiber
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