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Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting Accuracy Using HMPCS and Machine Learning Techniques: An Applied Study
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Background Solar irradiance is a nonlinear and intermittent function, which makes accurate forecasting of solar power generation a challenge. The high variability of meteorological conditions is not well represented by conventional atmospheric models, thus hampering forecasting skill and model robustness. In this work, an advanced hybridization of multi-population cuckoo search (HMPCS) algorithm with machine learning (ML) methods is developed to enhance the prediction performance of photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting with more reliability. Methods In this study, a hybrid modeling framework is proposed, called HMPCS–ML framework which captures the global search capacity of HMPCS and predictive power of sophisticated ML models (Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM)). Optimizing hyperparameters by balancing exploration and exploitation, the algorithm runs on multi-populations through Lévy flight randomization. Interpolation, normalization, and temporal windowing were utilized to preprocess synthetic meteorological and irradiance datasets. We evaluated the framework by comparing commonly used statistical measures (MAE, RMSE, MAPE, R 2 ). Results Moreover, experimental analyses showed that HMPCS–ML models significantly outperformed baseline approaches (Grid Search and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)). Results showed that the optimized LSTM+HMPCS model outperformed other models in terms of lowest RMSE (0.139) and highest R 2 (0.93), reflecting the LSTM model’s good fit with practical observations and generalization ability. The optimal LightGBM + HMPCS variant also proved to be consistently better, with reduced error (23% lower than unoptimized models). Conclusions In this regard, the HMPCS–ML framework is a powerful and efficient solution for the optimization of solar power forecasting, improving the predictive performance and calculation efficiency. This research shows the potential of hybrid metaheuristic–ML integration for renewable energy prediction and smart-grid applications in general and indicates further extensions to multi-objective and Transformer-based architectures.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2025
Journal Name
Results In Engineering
Storage characteristics of solar thermal collector integrated with latent heat material: A comparative experimental study of two types of paraffin wax under varying incident radiation and different water flow rates
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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Design and Performance Investigation of a Solar- Powered Biological Greywater Treatment System in the Iraqi Climate
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            The increase in population resulted in an increase in the consumption of water. The present work investigates the performance of a recycling solar- powered greywater treatment system for the purposes of irrigation, used to reduce the amount of waste grey water and reduce electricity consumption and reduce the costs of constructing large scale water treatment plants. The system consumes about 3814W per hour and provides water treatment about 1.4 m3 per day. The proposed system is designed to    residential, office and governmental buildings application. Tests are conducted in an office building at the Ministry of Science and Technology site in Baghdad. Laboratorial water samples testing analyses are co

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 12 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The effect of Tilt Angle, Surface Azimuth and Mirror in Solar Cell Panel Output in Baghdad.
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In this research (100* 40* 4 cm) solar cell panel was used in Baghdad at autumn season (2010), to get best solar cell panel angles experimentally, and then a mirror (40*50 cm) is use to concentrate incident sunlight intensity on a panel. At first case we get (Tilt angle ?P =60°and Surface Azimuth angle ?P =36°E) is the best angles and other case, we add a mirror at angle = 120° at bottom of panel, then we get output power (27.48watt) is bigger than without using a mirror (25.16watt). We can benefit from these cases in variety applications.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A theoretical Design of a cover for lowering the solar cells temperature and enhance their performance
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In this research, main types of optical coatings are presented which are used as covers for solar cells, these coatings are reflect the infrared (heat) from the solar cell to increase the efficiency of the cell (because the cell’s efficiency is inversely proportional to the heat), then the theoretical and mathematical description of these optical coatings are presented, and an optical design is designed to meet this objective, its optical transmittance was calculated using (MATLAB R2008a) and (Open Filters 1.0.2) programs

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
The Effect of Solar Panel Type on some Irrigation System Parameters and Bean Crop Germination Percentage
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Abstract<p>An experiment was carried out at Al-Raed Research Station, which is located on the Baghdad-Anbar road during the winter season, in order to study the effect of the type of solar panels and irrigation system on some performance indicators of irrigation systems and germination percentage of bean crop (Vicia Faba L). A randomized complete block design (RCBD) was used with three replications. The experiment consist of two factors. 1st factor was the solar panel type with two levels : monocrystalline and polycrystalline. Second factor was the irrigation system with two levels Drip and sprinkler irrigation system the following indicators were studied : solar panel efficiency (%), Irrigation</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Compound Heat Transfer Enhancement in Dimpled and Sinusoidal Metal Solar Wall Ducts Fitted with Wired Inserts
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An improved Metal Solar Wall (MSW) with integrated thermal energy storage is presented in this research. The proposed MSW makes use of two, combined, enhanced heat transfer methods. One of the methods is characterized by filling the tested ducts with a commercially available copper Wired Inserts (WI), while the other one uses dimpled or sinusoidal shaped duct walls instead of plane walls. Ducts having square or semi-circular cross sectional areas are tested in this work.
A developed numerical model for simulating the transported thermal energy in MSW is solved by finite difference method. The model is described by system of three governing energy equations. An experimental test rig has been built and six new duct configurations have b

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Al-mustansiriyah Journal Of Science
Seasonal Variations of the Optimum Reliable Frequencies During Maximum and Minimum Periods of Solar Cycle 24
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In this research, the seasonal Optimal Reliable Frequency (ORF) variations between different transmitter/receiver stations have been determined. Mosul, Baghdad, and Basra have been chosen as tested transmitting stations that located in the northern, center, and southern of Iraqi zone. In this research, the minimum and maximum years (2009 and 2014) of solar cycle 24 have been chosen to examine the effect of solar activity on the determined seasonal ORF parameter. Mathematical model has been proposed which leads to generate the Optimal Reliable Frequency that can maintain the seasonal connection links for different path lengths and bearings. The suggested ORF parameter represented by a different orders polynomial equation. The polynom

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2009
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Effect of Glass Inclination of Windows Facing East and West on Solar Radiation Transmittance into Buildings
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To reduce solar radiation transmittance into buildings through windows facing east or west during summer, a window inclination from vertical position is suggested. The inclination of the window glazing and the rate of unwanted solar radiation during summer can be calculated knowing the dialy inclination of the sun rays. The inclination of window glazing depends on the latitude of the position required. For instance in Baghdad which is at about 33o north latitude a slope of 15o for window glazing is sufficient to prevent about 419 MJ/m2 of total solar radiation energy from penetration during summer for clear glazing of window facing east. This value drops to about 96 MJ/m2 during winter. Therefore the ratio between the energy saved for co

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Renewable And Sustainable Energy Reviews
Dye-sensitised solar cells: Development, structure, operation principles, electron kinetics, characterisation, synthesis materials and natural photosensitisers
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Application of Data Mining Techniques on Tourist Expenses in Malaysia
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Tourism plays an important role in Malaysia’s economic development as it can boost business opportunity in its surrounding economic. By apply data mining on tourism data for predicting the area of business opportunity is a good choice. Data mining is the process that takes data as input and produces outputs knowledge. Due to the population of travelling in Asia country has increased in these few years. Many entrepreneurs start their owns business but there are some problems such as wrongly invest in the business fields and bad services quality which affected their business income. The objective of this paper is to use data mining technology to meet the business needs and customer needs of tourism enterprises and find the most effective

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