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Enhancing Solar Power Forecasting Accuracy Using HMPCS and Machine Learning Techniques: An Applied Study
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Background Solar irradiance is a nonlinear and intermittent function, which makes accurate forecasting of solar power generation a challenge. The high variability of meteorological conditions is not well represented by conventional atmospheric models, thus hampering forecasting skill and model robustness. In this work, an advanced hybridization of multi-population cuckoo search (HMPCS) algorithm with machine learning (ML) methods is developed to enhance the prediction performance of photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting with more reliability. Methods In this study, a hybrid modeling framework is proposed, called HMPCS–ML framework which captures the global search capacity of HMPCS and predictive power of sophisticated ML models (Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM)). Optimizing hyperparameters by balancing exploration and exploitation, the algorithm runs on multi-populations through Lévy flight randomization. Interpolation, normalization, and temporal windowing were utilized to preprocess synthetic meteorological and irradiance datasets. We evaluated the framework by comparing commonly used statistical measures (MAE, RMSE, MAPE, R 2 ). Results Moreover, experimental analyses showed that HMPCS–ML models significantly outperformed baseline approaches (Grid Search and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)). Results showed that the optimized LSTM+HMPCS model outperformed other models in terms of lowest RMSE (0.139) and highest R 2 (0.93), reflecting the LSTM model’s good fit with practical observations and generalization ability. The optimal LightGBM + HMPCS variant also proved to be consistently better, with reduced error (23% lower than unoptimized models). Conclusions In this regard, the HMPCS–ML framework is a powerful and efficient solution for the optimization of solar power forecasting, improving the predictive performance and calculation efficiency. This research shows the potential of hybrid metaheuristic–ML integration for renewable energy prediction and smart-grid applications in general and indicates further extensions to multi-objective and Transformer-based architectures.

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Materials Science & Technology
Decoupling light soaking effects reveals defects migration and selenium passivation dynamics in CdSeTe solar cells
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Light soaking (LS) is widely employed to optimize CdTe-based solar cells, yet its microscopic origin remains controversial due to the entangled roles of illumination and thermal activation. Here, we establish a decoupled experimental strategy that independently disentangles light exposure and heating, revealing their fundamentally distinct and competing effects on defect dynamics in CdSeTe solar cells. Illumination alone induces a backward drift of acceptors under the light-enhanced built-in field, reducing apparent hole density and suppressing open-circuit voltage. In contrast, thermal activation promotes Cu redistribution toward the front junction and eliminates deep recombination centers, partially restoring device performance. Remarka

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Materials Today: Proceedings
Hydrogel materials as absorber for improving water evaporation with solar still, desalination and wastewater treatment
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Water has been acknowledged as one of the key issues of humanity in modern society and worldwide economic advancements, especially with the continuing reductions in fresh-water supply. Solar energy, which is abundant as well as widely available in various fields, has the potential to solve the global challenges of long-term freshwater and energy reduction. Researchers are attempting to address the problem in a variety of methods. Due to the fact that solar energy is the foundation for freshwater, several researches have applied it for improving the effectiveness of solar desalination, evaporation, and wastewater treatment. One of the novel methods used for achieving this is known as “hydrogel,” which comes in a variety of forms. As a un

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Modeling and Simulation of Thermal Performance of Solar-Assisted Air Conditioning System under Iraq Climate
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In Iraq most of the small buildings deployed a conventional air conditioning technology which typically uses electrically driven compressor systems which exhibits several clear disadvantages such as high energy consumption, high electricity at peak loads. In this work a thermal performance of air conditioning system combined with a solar collector is investigated theoretically. The hybrid air conditioner consists of a semi hermetic compressor, water cooled shell and tube condenser, thermal expansion valve and coil with tank evaporator. The theoretical analysis included a simulation for the solar assisted air-conditioning system using EES software to analyze the effect of different parameters on the power consumption of c

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 14 2018
Journal Name
Radiation Effects & Defects In Solids
Effect of gamma and beta radiation on I–V characterization of the solar cell panel
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Optoelectronic devices, widely used in high energy and nuclear physics applications, suffer severe radiation damage that leads to degradations in its efficiency. In this paper, the influence of gamma radiation (137Ce source) and beta radiation (90Sr source) on the photoelectric parameters of the Si solar cell, based on the I–V characterization at different irradiation exposer, has been studied. The penetrating radiation produces defects in the base material, may be activated during its lifetime, becoming traps for electron–hole pairs produced optically and, this will, decrease the efficiency of the solar cell. The main objective of the paper is to study and measure changes in the I–V characteristics of solar cells, such as efficienc

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 04 2023
Journal Name
Frontiers In Chemestry
Thermal and flow performance analysis of a concentrated linear Fresnel solar collector with transverse ribs
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This article deals with the impact of including transverse ribs within the absorber tube of the concentrated linear Fresnel collector (CLFRC) system with a secondary compound parabolic collector (CPC) on thermal and flow performance coefficients. The enhancement rates of heat transfer due to varying governing parameters were compared and analyzed parametrically at Reynolds numbers in the range 5,000–13,000, employing water as the heat transfer fluid. Simulations were performed to solve the governing equations using the finite volume method (FVM) under various boundary conditions. For all Reynolds numbers, the average Nusselt number in the circular tube in the CLFRC system with ribs was found to be larger than that of the plain abs

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
SOLAR WATER HEATER WITH SHELL AND HELICAL COILED TUBE HEAT EXCHANGER AS A STORAGE TANK
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In this work an experimental study is performed to evaluate the thermal performance
of locally made closed loop solar hot water system using a shell and helical coiled tube
heat exchanger as a storage tank. Several measurements are taken include inlet and outlet
temperatures of both collectors and supply water and temperature distribution within the
storage tank. This is beside the water flow rate in both collectors and load cycle. The
main parameters of the system are obtained.

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 31 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Energy and Exergy Analysis of Dual Channel Solar Air Collector with Different Absorber Plates Geometry
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Flat-plate collector considers most common types of collectors, for ease of manufacturing and low price compared with other collectors. The main aim of the present work is to increase the efficiency of the collector, which can be achieved by improving the heat transfer and minimize heat loss experimentally. Five types of solar air collectors have been tested, which conventional channel with a smooth absorber plate (model I), dual channel with a smooth absorber plate (model II), dual channel with perforating “V” corrugated absorber plate (model III), dual channel with internal attached wire mesh (model Ⅳ), and dual channel with absorber sheet of transparent honeycomb, (model Ⅴ). The dual channel collector used for

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 16 2021
Journal Name
Energies
Performance Analysis of a Solar Cooling System with Equal and Unequal Adsorption/Desorption Operating Time
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In solar-thermal adsorption/desorption processes, it is not always possible to preserve equal operating times for the adsorption/desorption modes due to the fluctuating supply nature of the source which largely affects the system’s operating conditions. This paper seeks to examine the impact of adopting unequal adsorption/desorption times on the entire cooling performance of solar adsorption systems. A cooling system with silica gel–water as adsorbent-adsorbate pair has been built and tested under the climatic condition of Iraq. A mathematical model has been established to predict the system performance, and the results are successfully validated via the experimental findings. The results show that, the system can be operational

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 16 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Technological Maturity and its role in reinforcing the quality of auditing: An analytical study in Iraqi audit offices
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This paper discusses the role of Auditors' Technological Maturity in reinforcing the quality of auditing profession, through focusing on the concepts of Technological Maturity and quality of auditing profession, as well as designing a proposed model for Technological Maturity which includes five evolutionary and sequential stages, and this proposed model would contribute to reinforce the quality of auditing. This proposed model will be employed in the field of auditing profession because the importance of the development and investment in this profession and the importance of the need for specialized knowledge in Information Technology, and the result of a proposed model is development of technological knowledge for the auditor to reach

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Publication Date
Thu May 31 2012
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
An Experimental Study on the Effect of Shape and Location of Vortex Generators Ahead of a Heat Exchanger
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An experimental study is carried out on the effect of vortex generators (Circular and square) on the flow and heat transfer at variable locations at (X = 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 cm) ahead of a heat exchanger with Reynolds number ranging from 62000< Re < 125000 and heat flux from 3000 ≤ q ≤ 8000 W/m2 .

In the experimental investigation, an apparatus is set up to measure the velocity and temperatures around the heat exchanger.                     

The results show that there is an effect for using vortex generators on heat transfer. Also, heat transfer depends on the shape and location. The circular is found t

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