Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Background: Errors of horizontal condylar inclinations and Bennett angles had largely affected the articulation of teeth and the pathways of cusps. The aim of this study was to estimate and compare between the horizontal condylar (protrusive) angles and Bennett angles of full mouth rehabilitation patients using two different articulator systems. Materials and Methods: Protrusive angles and Bennett angles of 50 adult males and females Iraqi TMD-free full mouth rehabilitation patients were estimated by using two different articulator systems. Arbitrary hinge axis location followed by protrusive angles and Bennett angles, estimation was done by a semiadjustable articulator system. A fully adjustable articulator system was utilized to locate th
... Show MoreIn this article our goal is mixing ARMA models with EGARCH models and composing a mixed model ARMA(R,M)-EGARCH(Q,P) with two steps, the first step includes modeling the data series by using EGARCH model alone interspersed with steps of detecting the heteroscedasticity effect and estimating the model's parameters and check the adequacy of the model. Also we are predicting the conditional variance and verifying it's convergence to the unconditional variance value. The second step includes mixing ARMA with EGARCH and using the mixed (composite) model in modeling time series data and predict future values then asses the prediction ability of the proposed model by using prediction error criterions.
In this time, most researchers toward about preparation of compounds according to green chemistry. This research describes the preparation of 2-fluoro-5-(substituted benzylideneamino) benzonitrile under reflux and microwave methods. Six azomethine compounds (B1-6) were synthesized by two methods under reflux and assisted microwave with the comparison between the two methods. Reflux method was prepared of azomethine (B1-6) by reaction of 5-amino-2-fluorobenzonitrile with some aldehyde derivatives with (50–100) mL of absolute ethanol and some quantity of GAA and time is limited between (2–5) hours with a yield between (60–70) percent with recrystallization for appropriate solvents. But the microwave-assisted method was synthesized of co
... Show Moreالوصف In this time, most researchers toward about preparation of compounds according to green chemistry. This research describes the preparation of 2-fluoro-5-(substituted benzylideneamino) benzonitrile under reflux and microwave methods. Six azomethine compounds (B1-6) were synthesized by two methods under reflux and assisted microwave with the comparison between the two methods. Reflux method was prepared of azomethine (B1-6) by reaction of 5-amino-2-fluorobenzonitrile with some aldehyde derivatives with (50–100) mL of absolute ethanol and some quantity of GAA and time is limited between (2–5) hours with a yield between (60–70) percent with recrystallization for appropriate solvents. But the microwave-assisted method was synthe
... Show MoreEarly diagnosis of sepsis is a very critical matter especially for soldiers in battle field; on the other hand, Procalcitonin is a new promising biomarker for fast and accurate diagnosis of sepsis. The aim of this study is to investigate the ability of Procalcitonin (PCT) to indicate sepsis earlier than blood culture and other traditional biomarkers and then get use of this in early diagnosis of sepsis.Procalcitonin concentration was measured in 44 sera of Iraqi wounded soldiers who were admitted to GHAZI AL-HARIRI Hospital for surgery, using ELISA kit of BioRay/USA, along with blood culture and other infection biomarker like C-reactive protein, ESR, W.B.C. count. Six patients had elevated PCT and 3 of them
... Show MoreThe adoption of many mathematical concepts contributes to the construction of models of sports and the population can be interpreted to explain the movement and growth of the population lead to proper planning to manage the requirements of the population and meet their needs of providing education or providing medical services, health and others. In this study, the number of births in the Governorate of Basrah for the period (1998-2050) is estimated to be based on the assumption that the population of the visually impaired is a stable society. If the rate of growth is (0.0492), some demographic indicators are important for maintaining the average age of women at pregnancy (27.817). Each woman will give birth (3.74) female birth d
... Show MoreIn this paper, we suggest a descent modification of the conjugate gradient method which converges globally provided that the exact minimization condition is satisfied. Preliminary numerical experiments on some benchmark problems show that the method is efficient and promising.
The research problem focused through the researcher's experience in the gymnastics game and the lack of use of educational models that give the student an important role in the educational process, so it became necessary to identify the type of prevailing style for students, and the need for diversity in the use of educational models based on scientific theories, including the Daniel Document model. Based on three theories of learning, which are structural, behavioral, and meaningful learning. The research aimed to identify the effect of using the Daniel model for people with two types of brain control (left and right) to learn the skill of the Cartwheel in artistic gymnastics for students of the second stage. The researcher used the experi
... Show MoreTesting the sensitivity of periodontal pathogens requires the selection of an easier and more reliable method to be used with such anaerobic bacteria that need a long period of time for growth. Natural materials are a new era of antibacterial agents to control periodontal infections. The aims of the current study were to test the antibacterial activity of two natural agents, namely olibanum and alum, against three types of red complex periodontal pathogens and compare the application of agar diffusion and microdilution methods for testing the susceptibility. Gingival crevicular fluid from pockets with chronic infections was sampled as a source for the three types of bacteria, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythia
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