Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Abstract
This study aims to identify the social and psychological abuse towards elderly people by others, to identify the difference of social and psychological abuse towards elderly by others according to the variable of gender (male and female). Additionally, to identify the difference of social and psychological abuse towards elderly by determining the one who is responsible of abusing (son, daughter, spouse, etc.). To achieve this aim, the researcher designed a scale to identify the social and psychological abuse towards elderly by others. The results showed that this sample exposed to psychological abuse by different sides due to lacking of powers. Besides, the result showed that there are no signifi
... Show MoreThere are numerous bidirectional interactions between the reproductive system and the liver. Sex steroids regulate metabolic health through signaling effects in both peripheral and central metabolic tissues, including adipose tissue, liver, skeletal muscle, and brain, and have a role in the etiology of structural and functional liver diseases. Blood samples were obtained from 90 healthy women (control group) and 90 women that have hormonal changes (patients’ group). The levels of reproductive hormones (follicle stimulation hormone/FSH, luteinizing hormone/LH, estradiol/E2, progesterone/P4) were measured by using fully automated Cobas E411, whereas those of liver enzymes (alanine transaminase /ALT, aspartate aminotransferase/AST, a
... Show MoreThe mobile phone is widespread all over the world. This technology is one of the most widespread with more than five billion subscriptions making people describe this interaction system as Wireless Intelligence. Mobile phone networks become the focus of attention of researchers, organizations and governments due to its penetration in all life fields. Analyzing mobile phone traces allows describing human mobility with accuracy as never done before. The main objective in this contribution is to represent the people density in specific regions at specific duration of time according to raw data (mobile phone traces). This type of spatio-temporal data named CDR (Call Data Records), which have properties of the time and spatial indications for th
... Show MoreTransference numbers of the aqueous zinc chloride and zinc sulphate solutions have been measured for the concentrations 0.03, 0.05, 0.07, 0.09 and 0.1 mol.dm-3at 298.15K, by using the modified Hittorf method. The dependence of transference number on concentration of each electrolyte was also investigated in an attempt to explain the value of the limiting transference number. The Longsworth method has been used for the extrapolation of zinc transference number in aqueous solutions, using the values of the limiting transference numbers of the appropriate values of the limiting equivalent conductance, it was possible to determine the corresponding values of the limiting ion conductance for the cations and anions of the electrolytes. The
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Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia
... Show MoreAbstract: Lymphoproliferative Disorders (LPDs) are a group of neoplasms affecting various cells within lymphoid system. Each type has different treatment a..70619
Rutting has a significant impact on the pavements' performance. Rutting depth is often used as a parameter to assess the quality of pavements. The Asphalt Institute (AI) design method prescribes a maximum allowable rutting depth of 13mm, whereas the AASHTO design method stipulates a critical serviceability index of 2.5 which is equivalent to an average rutting depth of 15mm. In this research, static and repeated compression tests were performed to evaluate the permanent strain based on (1) the relationship between mix properties (asphalt content and type), and (2) testing temperature. The results indicated that the accumulated plastic strain was higher during the repeated load test than that during the static load tests. Notably, temperatur
... Show MoreHypercholesterolemia is a predominant risk factor for atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The World Health Organization (WHO), ) recommended reducing the intake of cholesterol and saturated fats. On the other hand, limited evidence is available on the benefits of vegetables in the diet to reduce these risk factors, so this research was conducted to compare the hypolipidemic effect between the extracts of two different types of Iraqi peppers, the fruit of the genus Capsicum traditionally known as red pepper extract (RPE), and Piper nigrum as black pepper extract (BPE), respectively, in different parameters and histology of the liver of the experimental animals. The red pepper was extracted by ethyl acetate, while the black pepp
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