Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia

تلعب السياسة النقدية دوراً فاعلاً ومتميزاً في تحقيق معدلات نمو عالية وتحقيق الاستقرار والتوازن الاقتصادي وبالاخص الحد من ظاهرة التضخم.

يمكن حصر اهداف السياسة النقدية في الدول النامية والعربية خصوصاً من خلال التعرف على الاغراض المنصوص عليها في التشريعات وتشمل (تحقيق استقرار نقدي، المحافظة على قيمة العملة، تشجيع النمو الاقتصادي، تطوير الاسواق المالية والنقدية، استقرار الاسعار، تحقيق ال

In this study is the phenomenon of desertification risk assessment in the Abu Ghraib area west of Baghdad/Iraq, which has an area of about (384.168 km 2), that the annual mean temperature is more than (22 C). Rainfall was low, ranging from the (200 mm) per year for Iraq and (2.82) mm per year of the study area* temperature is high and evaporation is also high (mm 7.73) per year*, so the climate in general of the dry type and the system of soil moisture is the kind of Aridic (Torric). To this study was to identify three indicators to monitor for the period from 2001-2005 using GIS and these indicators are (soil, groundwater and the nature of land use), using ArcGIS 9.1. The results showed that the risk of desertification was part of the leve

The exercise of activities and sports are of great importance to public health and to maintain the ideal health weight as well as the psychological and mental comfort of humans. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and participation of educated females in physical activities at the University of Baghdad hall for the years 2011-2016, and to show the factors that influence women's contribution to physical activities at the university by selecting 100 students of males and 100 females' students randomly. During the questioning questions and statistical analysis of the questioning to find out the reasons for the discouraging contribution of the women to the various physical activities and try to find solutions and r

This study unveils the ideologies of women empowerment encoded in the Mona Lisa Smile movie (2003). It reveals how the stereotypical image of women born only to be wives and do the duties of upbringing and housework is challenged. Katherine Ann Watson (Julia Roberts), the main character in the movie, wants to make a difference in the next generation of women. She rejects the imposed traditional ideologies. Linguistically, she opposes conventional thinking and seeks to persuade her students that life is about more than getting married. The primary focus of this study is to examine and clarify how the characters’ linguistic choices convey their ideologies concerning the notion of women empowerment. To do this, the researchers apply

In this paper, the effect of changes in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq was studied by estimating the error correction model (ECM) for monthly time series data for the period (2010-2015) . The Philips Perron was used to test the stationarity and also we used Engle and Granger to test the cointegration . we used cubic spline and local polynomial estimator to estimate regression function .The result show that local polynomial was better than cubic spline with the first level of cointegration.

The objective of the research is to measure the impact of social responsibility on the financial performance of the National Bank of Iraq for the period from 2014 to 2016 (3 years) through discussing and analyzing the level of practice of the Bank of Baghdad for social responsibility and the impact on their financial performance during the period. To measure the independent variable (CSR), the researcher used the CSR Disclosure Index and relied on the ROA as an indicator to measure the dependent variable (financial performance). The results of the research showed the main hypothesis of the research, which states that the social responsibility of the banks has no significant impact on the financial performance. In relation to the disclosu

The banking sector is currently facing great challenges resulting from intense competition in the financial environment, and this is what makes the supreme audit bodies and the Central Bank audit as the highest supervisory authority on banks in order to achieve profit and not be exposed to loss, and this requires identifying the banking strengths and risks that constitute points Weakness that affects the future performance and the life of the bank, which requires special supervisory care, and from this point of view, the research aims to use the CAMELS model as a control tool in banks, through the use of its six indicators: capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, profits, liquidity And sensitivity to market risks, th

This study was designed to monitor the ambient air pollution in several sites within Baghdad City of Iraq. The readings started from May 2016 to April 2017. The highest concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO2) was 2.28 ppmm-3 while nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was 3.68 ppmm-3 and suspended particulate matter was 585.1 ?gm-3. This study also included estimating the value of the air pollution tolerance index (APTI) for four plant's species Olea europaea L., Ziziphus spina-Christi (L.) Desf, Albizia lebbeck(L.) Benth. and Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh. Were cultivated on the road sides. The study includes four biochemical parameters, total chlorophyll content, ascorbic acid content, pH and relative water content of plant leaves. The results show that

An experiment was carried out on the fields of the college of Agriculture - Abu Ghraib, of a silty clay loam soil that has moisture of 15-16%, to study the effect of plowing and pulverization systems on some plant indicators of onion. The experiment included plowing systems with three levels (plowing with a moldboard plow, plowing by chisel plow and zero tillage plowing) as a primary factor. The second factor was that pulverization for only one time and repeating the pulverization twice through the use of the rotary tiller. The plant indicators of onion that are studied: plant length, onion diameter, onion weight and onion neck diameter. The experiment has carried out according to SPLIT PLOT design according to RCBD design by three replicat