The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

يعد القرن السابع الهجري /الثالث عشر ميلادي من أسوأ القرون التي عصفت بتاريخ أمتنا، وتمثل ذلك بالغزو الصليبي الذي كان في أوجه ومن ثم الغزو المغولي الهمجي الذي انهال على الأمة كما الجراد، أضيف لذلك ما كانت عليه الأحوال الداخلية من نزاعات بين الملوك والسلاطين، ورغم كل ذلك استطاع ثلة من العلماء الأكابر أن يدنوا التاريخ ويسطروه ليبقى محفوظاً للأجيال اللاحقة وصوناً لتراث الأمة العريق.

This study aims to investigate the academic leaders’ perceptions towards the degree of availability of the dimensions of organizational immunity systems at the University of Tabuk, as well as to reveal the statistically significant differences between the average responses of the study sample members about the degree of availability of these dimensions at their university due to the variables of (gender, leadership position, and college specialization). To achieve the objectives of the study, a descriptive survey method was used. The study population consisted of (200) male and female leaders who were academic leaders at the University of Tabuk. A questionnaire was used as a tool for collecting data, which its validity and reliability

The current research attempts to examine the relationship between social-psychological conflict and their relation to family upbringing approaches among the adolescents of intermediate stage according to sex and economical level. To do this, the researcher prepared a questionnaire to measure social-psychological conflict that consisted of (32) item divided on four dimensions, and also she prepared a questionnaire to measure family upbringing approaches which composed of (28) item divided on four dimensions. The sample was (260) male and female student from intermediate stage chosen randomly. The results revealed that there were significant differences between social-psychological conflict which went to male, there was a negative correlat

The aim of the study was to find out the correlations and impact between the variable of ethical leadership behavior and university performance at Sumer University. Use the descriptive analytical method by adopting the questionnaire tool to collect data. The questionnaire was distributed electronically to 113 teachers at Sumer University and the response was from 105 teachers. The research results showed that there is a correlation and effect relationship between the search variables. In addition, the responding university does not have ethically defined standards in terms of performance of the work of the cadres working there. Finally, the research presented a set of recommendations aimed at tackling problems in the ethical lead

The post-Corona Covid-19 world is not the world before it, the problem of perception of personality traits with two axes: the characteristics of psychological and social compatibility, and the second aspect the mental disorder during the pandemic, and the accompanying precautions and prohibitions during the academic year 2020 AD. The aim of the research is to reveal the perception of the personal characteristics of Bisha University employees (students and faculty) during the Corona Covid-19 pandemic, and to reveal statistically significant differences in the perception of the personality traits of Bisha’s members during the Covid 19 according to the scientific qualification variables (female students -faculty members),  marital st

المستخلص يتضمن البحث شرح موجز لمفهوم نظم المعلومات الجغرافية وعلاقتها مع علم الاثار والتاكيد على اهميتها في هذا المجال وكيفية الاستفادة من هذه النظم في مجال التنقيب عن الاثار مع الاستعانة بالعمل الحقلي المنجز في موقع تنقيبات جامعة الموصل عند تل قوينجق لتوضيح كيفية الاستفادة من مجموعة من مصادر وبرامج نظم المعلومات الجغرافية لسد بعض متطلبات عملية التنقيب عند تل قوينجق في مدينة نينوى الاثرية لعام 2011.

This search seeks to know the trends of academics in the field of Press and audio, video and read press about paper press compared with continued development and widespread deployment of web journalism. This research belongs to descriptive studies which depends on sample survey approach adopted by five-meter design measuring trends. It contains 28 items having applied honesty and reliability transaction and the scale form is distributed to the sample studied of about 110 professors and then the researcher collects them and then applying the appropriate statistical program to get the results. This search seeks to know the trends of academics in the field of Press and audio, video and read press about paper press compared with continu

Objective(s): To evaluate the family physicians' practices and to measure its impact upon the quality of family
medicine health care in Baghdad City model primary health care centers.
Methodology: A descriptive study, using the evaluation approach, has evaluated the impact of family physicians'
practices upon quality of healthcare in Baghdad's Model Primary Health Care Centers of Family Medicine. It is
carried out during 15th of May – 20th of August 2017. The study is conducted at five model primary health care
centers of family medicine from two districts; AL-Rusafa and AL-Kurkh. Sample size is calculated to be (76)
family physicians. Convenient sample of (124) patients who are attending these primary health care cen

Objective: To assess the Impact of Socio-economic status on age at menarche among secondary school students at
AL-Dora city in Baghdad, Iraq.
Methodology: This is a cross sectional study with multi-stage sampling was carried out during the period from the
3
th of December2013 to 12th of March 2014. The Sample comprised of 1760 girls, 1510 girls from urban area and
250 from rural area was included in the study. In first stage, selection of schools was done, and one class was
selected randomly from each level of Education, The data collection through a special questionnaire which Contain
the age of girl by year, class level, birth order, number of household, number of rooms, residency (urban/rural),
education level