The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

The fluctuation properties of energy spectrum, electromagnetic transition intensities and electromagnetic moments in nucleus are investigated with realistic shell model calculations. We find that the spectral fluctuations of are consistent with the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble of random matrices. Besides, we observe a transition from an order to chaos when the excitation energy is increased and a clear quantum signature of the breaking of chaoticity when the single-particle energies are increased. The distributions of the transition intensities and of the electromagnetic moments are well described by a Porter-Thomas distribution. The statistics of electromagnetic transition intensities clearly deviate from a Porter-Thomas distribution (i

Dialogue is one of the pillars of character building in the television series, through which it is possible to identify the most important characteristics and traits of the personality, in addition to its ability to reveal the most important problems at all levels. The following: (How does dialogue contribute to enhancing the traits of the alienated personality?). It therefore aims to identify the effectiveness of the dramatic dialogue in enhancing the traits of the alienated personality represented by (powerlessness, isolation, meaninglessness, objectification, non-standardization and rebellion). (The traits of the alienated character, and the second is the psychological function of the dramatic dialogue), to extract from them the main

The skill scale in most of sport activity monitoring a lot of dynamic behaviours conducted with playing situations that help the excerpt's in sport field to evaluate and put right solutions ,soccer one of games that studies in third stage in college and take skills ,dribbling , passing, shooting these skills helps to execute the plans in game ,the researchers notice that there is no test measure the skills of the game in the beginning of the first semester especially in the method of soccer in physical education college and the problem of the research were by answering the question that is there test connect between one or more that one of skill to measure the ability of students to execute the plans in soccer and the conclusion was the bui

This research aims to analyze the intellectual and civilizational regression that afflicted Iraqi and Arab society due to political and religious tyranny and internal conflicts, which was reflected in the deterioration of human rights values and the absence of equality and justice in dealing with the other religiously, which affected the reluctance of members of religious groups to interact with their national societies and then migrate to Outside, which contributed to a double loss, in terms of the loss of these societies by productive and effective national competencies, and in terms of distorting the image of Islam. The research stressed that the first treatments of this phenomenon are the consolidation of the values of citize

This study came to show the importance of long hope and its extent on human life, and I found that through the research, the majority of the scholars did not address this topic separately, and did not explain the travails of this situation and the worldly problems it causes to its owner, and the consequences that fall upon it in the hereafter. Most of the studies inside of the books consisted of a simple presentation of this problem and an explanation of the remedies that came to us from the Qur'an and the hadiths and the Sunnah, and on the sayings of the imams of guidance (may the best prayers and peace be upon them), and on the chosen companions and followers, may God be pleased with them, but the length of hope does not stop At a certain

The seed propagation is the predominant method of Echinacea propagation, which has been criticized for its time-consuming control over the separation factor and the uncertainty of pathogen-free plants produced by this method. The technology of tissue culture has provided multiple opportunities for the production of secondary metabolites continuously without being restricted to a specific season, due to the possibility of controlling the environmental conditions and the components of the nutrient medium needed by the plant. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of salicylic acid as elicitor and tyrosine as precursor on propagation and some secondary compounds production in coneflower in vitro. The result showed the superiori

The diversity of cultures is still the title of an Iraqi specificity that gave the society a diversity and this is reflected in the journalistic reality with the changing of the political system generate a new political and ideological life that differs from what is prevailed during the decades. However, its exacerbation of the degree of division is an additional duty for the press as a cultural platform and a knowledge bridge that contributes to the process of dialogue, addressing the differences, establishing a politically homogeneous structure through the state and socially by uniting all components of society and working to raise public awareness of the importance of national belonging to build a modern state. Cultural diversity is a