The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

Bones were recorded in the skeleton of some species of Iraqi turtle Mauremys rivulata; the objectives of this study came in light of current conditions, environmental developments, talents and techniques of biological studies taking place in the country, need for an anatomy guide in river turtles of Iraqi species, to identify all kinds of similarities and differences with their preaching, this work or study has become written in response to those modern needs. It is designed to be one of the resources for those interested in biological studies, beginners or professionals, and veterinarians, distinguishing them from marine and global species. Turtles were dissected in the laboratories of the Research Center and Museum of Natural Hist

Lipid disorders and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk are known to be increased in patients with diabetes mellitus. The effects of statins on serum lipid levels are well known; however, previous studies did not compare the effects of statins on serum lipid levels in diabetic patients with non-diabetic patients. To investigate the effects of Atorvastatin on serum lipid profiles in hyperlipidemic patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in comparison with hyperlipidemic patients without diabetes.This study was conducted on 33 type 2 diabetic patients & 34 non-diabetic patients; their age range was 40-80 years, all of them were hyperlipidemic, who had been administered 10, 20, & 40 mg daily of Atorvastatin and completed a 6-month foll

Background: The rhizome of ginger is used in cooking and for medicinal purposes such as anti-bacterial, anti-fungal, anti-inflammatory and antioxidant. The aims of the study were to test the effect of ethanolic extract of ginger on growth, adherence and acidogenicity of mutans streptococci in comparison to chlorhexidine gluconate 0.2% and de-ionized water. Materials and methods: From saliva often volunteers (dental students 20-22 years); mutans streptococci was isolated, purified and diagnosed according to morphological characteristic and biochemical tests. Ginger was powdered and extracted, different concentrations of ginger extract were prepared. Chlorhexidine gluconate 0.2% used as a control positive; while de-ionized water was used as a

This paper introduces a non-conventional approach with multi-dimensional random sampling to solve a cocaine abuse model with statistical probability. The mean Latin hypercube finite difference (MLHFD) method is proposed for the first time via hybrid integration of the classical numerical finite difference (FD) formula with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique to create a random distribution for the model parameters which are dependent on time t . The LHS technique gives advantage to MLHFD method to produce fast variation of the parameters’ values via number of multidimensional simulations (100, 1000 and 5000). The generated Latin hypercube sample which is random or non-deterministic in nature is further integrated with the FD method t

In this study  the isomerization of desulfuerized light Iraqi petroleum naphtha (Al-Dura Refinery) with boiling point range of 37 to 124 °C , 80.5 API specific gravity and 68.2 octane number has been investigated. Two types of catalysts were prepared (Pt/HX and Pt/SrX) by impregnation of 0.8 wt% Pt on l 3X-zeolite. The catalyst activity and selectivity toward isomerization, and catalyst deactivation were investigated.

The isomerization unit consisted of a vertical tubular stainless steel reactor of 2 cm internal diameter, 3 cm external diameter and 68 cm height. The operating pressure was atmospheric for all experimental runs.  The liquid flow of light­naphtha was 0.4 Uh, and the catalyst weight was 50 gm, H/