The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

Research objective: This research aims to unveil how to use the method of referral in understanding the Holy Quran.
        The reason for choosing the research: The one that invited me to write on this topic is the importance of the referral method, so I liked the research in it, and unveiled this wonderful Qur’anic method, so that it helps to understand the intention of God Almighty in his dear book.
       The research plan: The research was divided into three topics and a conclusion.
   As for the first topic, it is divided into two requirements. The first requirement deals with the definition of referral language.
In the second re

Background: The change in the concepts of cavity preparation and the development of reliable adhesive materials lead to the development of alternative methods of caries removal. Chemo-mechanical caries removal (CMCR) involves the chemical softening of carious dentin, followed by its removal with manual excavation. The present study was conducted to evaluate clinically the efficiency of caries removal using a new chemo-mechanical agent (Papacarie) compared to the conventional drilling method in reduction of total bacterial count. Material and methods: The study is a split mouth design. The sample composes from sixty mandibular deciduous molars teeth in thirty children, between six to nine years of age with bilateral class I deep occlusal car

A new, Simple, sensitive and accurate spectrophotometric methods have been developed for the determination of sulfanilamide (SNA) drug in pure and in synthetic sample. This method based on the reaction of sulfanilamide (SNA) with 1,2-napthoquinone-4-sulphonic acid (NQS) to form N-alkylamono naphthoquinone by replacement of the sulphonate  group of the naphthoquinone sulphonic acid by an amino group. The colored chromogen shows absorption maximum at 455 nm. The optimum conditions of condensation reaction forms were investigated by: (1) univariable method, by optimizing the effect of experimental variables; (different bases, reagent concentration, borax concentration and reaction time),     (2) central  composite design (CCD) including

In this paper, we will illustrate a gamma regression model assuming that the dependent variable (Y) is a gamma distribution and that it's mean ( ) is related through a linear predictor with link function which is identity link function g(μ) = μ. It also contains the shape parameter which is not constant and depends on the linear predictor and with link function which is the log link and we will estimate the parameters of gamma regression by using two estimation methods which are The Maximum Likelihood and the Bayesian and a comparison between these methods by using the standard comparison of average squares of error (MSE), where the two methods were applied to real da

Mixed-effects conditional logistic regression is evidently more effective in the study of qualitative differences in longitudinal pollution data as well as their implications on heterogeneous subgroups. This study seeks that conditional logistic regression is a robust evaluation method for environmental studies, thru the analysis of environment pollution as a function of oil production and environmental factors. Consequently, it has been established theoretically that the primary objective of model selection in this research is to identify the candidate model that is optimal for the conditional design. The candidate model should achieve generalizability, goodness-of-fit, parsimony and establish equilibrium between bias and variab

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease its etiology is  unknown . The classical autoimmune diseases, have adaptive immune genetic associations with autoantibodies and major histocompatibility complex(MHC) class II such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA), diabetes mellitus type two (DM II). Serum of99 males suffering from RA without DMII as group (G1), 45 males suffering from RA with DM II as group (G2) and 40 healthy males as group (G3) were enrolled in this study to estimation of alkaline phosphates (ALP),C-reactive protein(CRP) and Pentraxin-3(PTX). Results showed a highly significant increase in PTX3 levels in G1 and G2 compared to G3 and a significant decrease in G1comparing to G2. Results also revealed a si

Quantum dots (QDs) of zinc sulfide (ZnS) was prepared by chemical reaction with different potential of hydrogen (pH) and used to fabricate organic quantum dot hybrid junction device. The optical properties of QDs were characterized by ultraviolet-visible (UV-Vis.) and photoluminescence (PL) spectrometer. The results show that the prepared QDs were nanocrystalline with defects formation. The energy gap (E_g)calculated from PL were 3.64, 3.53 and 3.35 eV for pH=8, 10 and 12 respectively. This decreasing of energy gaps is results of the effect the pH solution increases, which in turn leads to the shifted of the PL spectrum toward red shifted, which makes the energy bands at surface states are shallow ban

Abstract

The increasing of some traded Agricultural crops prices coincide with the increasing of crude oil prices in global market since the beginning of 21^st century which indicate the possibility of short run and long run causality relation between the imported economic variables. The study aims to analysis the causality effects between some of Agricultural crops prices imported by Iraq and the prices of crude oil and Iraq dinar exchange rate   in global markets for period (2004:1 -2016:4) theory for developing the adequate price and economic police for Iraqi economic sector. The results show the existence of short- run and long- run between the eco