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Multi-Sites Multi-Variables Forecasting Model for Hydrological Data using Genetic Algorithm Modeling
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A two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was checked by comparing it's results with the results of six forecasting models developed for the same data by Al-Suhili and khanbilvardi, 2014.The check of the performance of the new developed model was made for three forecasted series for each variable, using the Akaike test which indicates that the developed model is more successful, since it gave the minimum (AIC) values for (91.67 %) of the forecasted series. This indicates that the developed model had improved the forecasting performance. For the rest of cases (8.33%), other models gave the lowest AIC value, however it is slightly lower than that given by the developed model. Moreover the t-test for monthly means comparison between the models indicates that the developed model has the highest percent of succeed (100%).

 

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2008
Journal Name
2008 First International Conference On The Applications Of Digital Information And Web Technologies (icadiwt)
Hybrid canonical genetic algorithm and steepest descent algorithm for optimizing likelihood estimators of ARMA (1, 1) model
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This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) for optimizing the maximum likelihood function ln(L(phi(1),theta(1)))of the mixed model ARMA(1,1). The presented hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) couples two processes: the canonical genetic algorithm (cGA) composed of three main steps: selection, local recombination and mutation, with the local search algorithm represent by steepest descent algorithm (sDA) which is defined by three basic parameters: frequency, probability, and number of local search iterations. The experimental design is based on simulating the cGA, hGA, and sDA algorithms with different values of model parameters, and sample size(n). The study contains comparison among these algorithms depending on MSE value. One can conc

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Publication Date
Thu May 18 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Optimal Dimensions of Small Hydraulic Structure Cutoffs Using Coupled Genetic Algorithm and ANN Model
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A genetic algorithm model coupled with artificial neural network model was developed to find the optimal values of upstream, downstream cutoff lengths, length of floor and length of downstream protection required for a hydraulic structure. These were obtained for a given maximum difference head, depth of impervious layer and degree of anisotropy. The objective function to be minimized was the cost function with relative cost coefficients for the different dimensions obtained. Constraints used were those that satisfy a factor of safety of 2 against uplift pressure failure and 3 against piping failure.
Different cases reaching 1200 were modeled and analyzed using geo-studio modeling, with different values of input variables. The soil wa

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2012
Journal Name
2012 Second International Conference On Digital Information And Communication Technology And It's Applications (dictap)
The compact Genetic Algorithm for likelihood estimator of first order moving average model
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Recently Genetic Algorithms (GAs) have frequently been used for optimizing the solution of estimation problems. One of the main advantages of using these techniques is that they require no knowledge or gradient information about the response surface. The poor behavior of genetic algorithms in some problems, sometimes attributed to design operators, has led to the development of other types of algorithms. One such class of these algorithms is compact Genetic Algorithm (cGA), it dramatically reduces the number of bits reqyuired to store the poulation and has a faster convergence speed. In this paper compact Genetic Algorithm is used to optimize the maximum likelihood estimator of the first order moving avergae model MA(1). Simulation results

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Mechanics Of Continua And Mathematical Sciences
Heuristic Initialization And Similarity Integration Based Model for Improving Extractive Multi-Document Summarization
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Publication Date
Mon May 27 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Process Parameters That Affecting on Surface Roughness in Multi-Point Forming Process Using ANOVA Algorithm
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Multipoint forming process is an engineering concept which means that the working surface of the punch and die is produced as hemispherical ends of individual active elements (called pins), where each pin can be independently, vertically displaced using a geometrically reconfigurable die. Several different products can be made without changing tools saved precious production time. Also, the manufacturing of very expensive rigid dies is reduced, and a lot of expenses are saved. But the most important aspects of using such types of equipment are the flexibility of the tooling. This paper presents an experimental investigation of the effect of three main parameters which are blank holder, rubber thickness and forming speed th

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 17 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Pearson coefficient matrix for studying the correlation of community detection scores in multi-objective evolutionary algorithm
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Publication Date
Fri Apr 18 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Thickness of Buccal Bone at Various Sites of the Mandible and Its Clinical Significance in MonocorticalScrews Placement Using Multi-Slice Computed Tomography
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Background:Open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) of using miniplates and screws is the treatment of choice of mandibular fractures. It is important to know both: the region where the bone providesafirm anchorage, andthe topography of the dental apices and inferior alveolar nerve to avoiddamaging them when inserting the screw. The aim of this study is to determine the thickness of buccal cortical plate and that of buccal bone at the parasymphysis and mandibular body, thereby determining the area that provide afirm anchorage and the maximum length of mono-cortical screws that can be safely placed in these regions without injuring the tooth roots or mandibular nerve. Materials and Methods:The sample of the present study was 110 Iraqi sub

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Calculating Production Rate of each Branch of a Multilateral Well Using Multi-Segment Well Model: Field Example
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Multilateral wells require a sophisticated type of well model to be applied in reservoir simulators to represent them. The model must be able to determine the flow rate of each fluid and the pressure throughout the well. The production rate calculations are very important because they give an indication about some main issues associated with multi-lateral wells such as one branch may produce water or gas before others, no production rate from one branch, and selecting the best location of a new branch for development process easily.                                &nbsp

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
On The Nearby-Tip Strain Investigation and Failure-Propability Evaluation for Impacted Thin Plates Using the 2-Random-Variables Multi-Canonical-Based Joint Propability Distributions
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The study of the validity and probability of failure in solids and structures is highly considered as one of the most incredibly-highlighted study fields in many science and engineering applications, the design analysts must therefore seek to investigate the points where the failing strains may be occurred, the probabilities of which these strains can cause the existing cracks to propagate through the fractured medium considered, and thereafter the solutions by which the analysts can adopt the approachable techniques to reduce/arrest these propagating cracks.In the present study a theoretical investigation upon simply-supported thin plates having surface cracks within their structure is to be accomplished, and the applied impact load to the

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Applied Mathematical Modelling
Identification of a multi-dimensional space-dependent heat source from boundary data
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