Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

Fiscal policy is one of the important economic tools that affect economic development in general and human development in particular through its tools (public revenues, public expenditures, and the general budget).

It was hoped that the effects of fiscal policy during the study period (2004-2007) will positively reflect on human development indicators (health, education, income) by raising these indicators on the ground. After 2003, public revenues in Iraq increased due to increased revenues. However, despite this increase in public budgets, the actual impact on human development and its indicators was not equivalent to this increase in financial revenues. QR The value of the general budget allocations ha

The behaviour of certain dynamical nonlinear systems are described in term as chaos, i.e., systems' variables change with the time, displaying very sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics. In this paper, we study archetype systems of ordinary differential equations in two-dimensional phase spaces of the Rössler model. A system displays continuous time chaos and is explained by three coupled nonlinear differential equations. We study its characteristics and determine the control parameters that lead to different behavior of the system output, periodic, quasi-periodic and chaos. The time series, attractor, Fast Fourier Transformation and bifurcation diagram for different values have been described.

An experiment was carried out in the vegetables field of Horticulture Department / College of Agriculture / Baghdad University , for the three seasons : spring and Autumn of 2005 , and spring of 2007 , to study the type of gene action in some traits of vegetative and flowery growth in summer squash crosses (4 x 3 = cross 1 , 3 x 7 = cross 2 , 3 x 4 = cross 3 , 3 x 5 = cross 4 , 5 x 1 = cross 5 , 5 x 2 = cross 6). The study followed generation mean analysis method which included to each cross (P1 , P2 , F1 , F2 , Bc1P1 , Bc1P2) , and those populations obtained by hybridization during the first and second seasons. Experimental comparison was performed in the second (Two crosses only) and third seasons , (four crosses) by using RCBD with three

Baker's Yeast is an important additive among the substances, which improves bred quality, thus, a consideration has been made to study the conditions and parameters that affecting the production of the yeast in a batch fermenter experimentally and theoretically. Experimental runs were implemented in a 12-liter pilot-scale fermenter to predict the rate of growth and other parameters such as amount of additive consumed and the amount of heat generated. The process is modeled and performed using a computer programming prepped for this purpose, the model gave a good agreement comparing to the experimental work specially in the log phase.

Simple and sensitive spectrophotometric method is described based on the coupling reaction of tetracycline hydrochloride (TC. HCl) with diazotized 4-aminopyridine in bulk and pharmaceutical forms. Colored azo dye formed during this reaction is measured at 433 nm as a function of time. Factors affecting the reaction yield were studied and the conditions were optimized. The kinetic study involves initial rate and fixed time (10 minutes) procedures for constructing the calibration graphs to determine the concentration of (TC. HCl). The graphs were linear for both methods in concentration range of 10.0 to 100.0 μg.mL-1. The recommended procedure was applied successfully in the determination of (TC. HCl) in its commercial formulations.

Simple and sensitive spectrophotometric method is described based on the coupling reaction of tetracycline hydrochloride(TC. HCl) with diazotized 4-aminopyridine in bulk and pharmaceutical forms. Colored azo dye formed during this reaction is measured at 433 nm as a function of time. Factors affecting the reaction yield were studied and the conditions were optimized. The kinetic study involves initial rate and fixed time (10 minutes) procedures for constructing the calibration graphs to determine the concentration of (TC. HCl). The graphs were linear for both methods in concentration range of 10.0 to 100.0 µg.mL-1. The recommended procedure was applied successfully in the determination of (TC. HCl) in itscommercial formulations.