Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

The primary components of successful engineering projects are time, cost, and quality. The use of the ring footing ensures the presence of these elements. This investigation aims to find the optimum number of geogrid reinforcement layers under ring footing subjected to inclined loading. For this purpose, experimental models were used. The parameters were studied to find the optimum geogrid layers number, including the optimum geogrid layers spacing and the optimum geogrid layers number. The optimum geogrid layers spacing value is 0.5B. And as the load inclination angle increased, the tilting and the tilting improvement percent for the load inclination angles (5°,10°,15°) are (40%,28%, and 5%) respectively. The reduction percent of the

This study aimed to find relationship between thymidine kinase-1 (TK-1) as tumor marker and total antioxidant capacity (TAC) in Iraqi children patients with thrombocytopenia and with thrombocytosis. The present study conducted 60 children patients (30 patients with idiopathic thrombocytopenia purpura (ITP) and 30 patients with thrombocytosis caused by leukemia) attending the Children Fever Hospital in the Medical City / Baghdad, and 30 healthy children as a control group. All study groups were with range ages (1-15) years, and they were diagnosed by assay of platelet count, Prothrombin Time (PT), and partial Thromboplastin Time (PTT). The results shown elevation in plasma TK-1 and TAC values in children patients with thrombocytopenia and w

In this study, we set up and analyze a cancer growth model that integrates a chemotherapy drug with the impact of vitamins in boosting and strengthening the immune system. The aim of this study is to determine the minimal amount of treatment required to eliminate cancer, which will help to reduce harm to patients. It is assumed that vitamins come from organic foods and beverages. The chemotherapy drug is added to delay and eliminate tumor cell growth and division. To that end, we suggest the tumor-immune model, composed of the interaction of tumor and immune cells, which is composed of two ordinary differential equations. The model’s fundamental mathematical properties, such as positivity, boundedness, and equilibrium existence, are exami

The optimum design is characterized by structural concrete components that can sustain loads well beyond the yielding stage. This is often accomplished by a fulfilled ductility index, which is greatly influenced by the arrangement of the shear reinforcement. The current study investigates the impact of the shear reinforcement arrangement on the structural response of the deep beams using a variety of parameters, including the type of shear reinforcement, the number of lacing bars, and the lacing arrangement pattern. It was found that lacing reinforcement, as opposed to vertical stirrups, enhanced the overall structural response of deep beams, as evidenced by test results showing increases in ultimate loads, yielding, and cracking of

The optimum design is characterized by structural concrete components that can sustain loads well beyond the yielding stage. This is often accomplished by a fulfilled ductility index, which is greatly influenced by the arrangement of the shear reinforcement. The current study investigates the impact of the shear reinforcement arrangement on the structural response of the deep beams using a variety of parameters, including the type of shear reinforcement, the number of lacing bars, and the lacing arrangement pattern. It was found that lacing reinforcement, as opposed to vertical stirrups, enhanced the overall structural response of deep beams, as evidenced by test results showing increases in ultimate loads, yielding, and cracking of

The research consists of five chapters, and in the first chapter, it addresses the introduction and importance of the research, where the researcher explained the importance of bio-motor abilities and their role in achieving a high level through their connection to the skill performance of standing on the hands followed by the forward roll, and the research problem: Do these bio-motor abilities have an impact on the level of skill performance? Handstand followed by forward roll.

Abstract

   The extremes effects in parameters readings which are BOD (Biological Oxygen Demands) and DO(Dissolved Oxygen) can caused error estimating of the model’s parameters which used to determine the ratio of de oxygenation and re oxygenation of the dissolved oxygen(DO),then that will caused launch big amounts of the sewage pollution  water to the rivers and it’s turn is effect in negative form on the ecosystem life and the different types of the water wealth.

   As result of what mention before this research came to employees Streeter-Phleps model parameters estimation which are (K_d,K_r) the de oxygenation and re oxygenation ratios on respect

A harvested prey-predator model with infectious disease in preyis investigated. It is assumed that the predator feeds on the infected prey only according to Holling type-II functional response. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are investigated. The local stability analysis of the harvested prey-predator model is carried out. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the persistence of the model are also obtained. Finally, the global dynamics of this model is investigated analytically as well as numerically. It is observed that, the model have different types of dynamical behaviors including chaos.