The aim of our study is to solve a nonlinear epidemic model, which is the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq, through the application of initial value problems in the current study. The model has been presented as a system of ordinary differential equations that has parameters that change with time. Two numerical simulation methods are proposed to solve this model as suitable methods for solving systems whose coefficients change over time. These methods are the Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta method (MMC_RK) and the Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta method (MLH_RK). The results of numerical simulation methods are compared with the results of the numerical Runge-Kutta 4th order method (RK4) from 2021 to 2025 using the absolute error, which proves that the MLH_RK method is the best and closest to the expected values. The results have been discussed after being tabulated and represented graphically. Epidemic behavior for the next two years until 2025 has been projected using the proposed methods.
Abstract
Objective(s): A descriptive study aimed to determine nurses' knowledge about chest physiotherapy techniques for patients with Corona virus disease and observe the relationship between nurses' knowledge and their socio-demographic characteristics.
Methodology: The study was directed in isolation units of Al- Hussein teaching hospitals in Thi-Qar, Iraq for the period from June 1st, 2022 to November 27th, 2022. Non- probability (purposively) sample comprised 41 nurses. A questionnaire was used for data collection and it consists of two parts: the first part comprises socio demographic features, the second part includes self- administered questionnaire sheet wa
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Abstract:
The models of time series often suffer from the problem of the existence of outliers that accompany the data collection process for many reasons, their existence may have a significant impact on the estimation of the parameters of the studied model. Access to highly efficient estimators is one of the most important stages of statistical analysis, And it is therefore important to choose the appropriate methods to obtain good estimators. The aim of this research is to compare the ordinary estimators and the robust estimators of the estimation of the parameters of
... Show MoreThis paper presents the first data for bremsstrahlung buildup factor (BBUF) produced by the complete absorption of Y-91 beta particles in different materials via the Monte Carlo simulation method. The bremsstrahlung buildup factors were computed for different thicknesses of water, concrete, aluminum, tin and lead. A single relation between the bremsstrahlung buildup factor BBUF with both the atomic number Z and thickness X of the shielding material has been suggested.
The effect of micro-and nano silica particles (silica SiO2 (100 μm), Fused silica (12nm)) on some mechanical properties of epoxy resin was investigated (Young's modulus, Flexural strength). The micro-and nano composites were prepared by using three steps process with different volume fraction of micro-and nano particles (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 15, and 20 vol. %). Flexural strength and Young's modulus of nano composites were increased at low volume fraction (max. enhancement at 4 vol.% ). However at higher volume fraction both Young's modulus and flexural strength decrease. Moreover, above, the mechanical properties are enhanced more than that of neat epoxy resin. The flexural strength decreases with increasing the volume fraction of micr
... Show MoreWe have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.
The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F
... Show MoreA total of 61 bat specimens belonging to three species were collected from four distinct sites in the middle of Iraq. Five species of acarine ectoparasites on bats were found. These were: Steatonyssus periblepharus Kolenati, Spinturnix acuminatus (C. L. K.). Cheletonella sp. Rhizoglyphus sp., and Argas sp. Three of the recorded species were new to Iraqi fauna. The abundance and accurence of each parasite was varied from one species to another. S. periblepharus aria S. acuminatus were the most common species found in this study.
Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).
Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)
Semiparametric methods combined parametric methods and nonparametric methods ,it is important in most of studies which take in it's nature more progress in the procedure of accurate statistical analysis which aim getting estimators efficient, the partial linear regression model is considered the most popular type of semiparametric models, which consisted of parametric component and nonparametric component in order to estimate the parametric component that have certain properties depend on the assumptions concerning the parametric component, where the absence of assumptions, parametric component will have several problems for example multicollinearity means (explanatory variables are interrelated to each other) , To treat this problem we use
... Show MoreAs the process of estimate for model and variable selection significant is a crucial process in the semi-parametric modeling At the beginning of the modeling process often At there are many explanatory variables to Avoid the loss of any explanatory elements may be important as a result , the selection of significant variables become necessary , so the process of variable selection is not intended to simplifying model complexity explanation , and also predicting. In this research was to use some of the semi-parametric methods (LASSO-MAVE , MAVE and The proposal method (Adaptive LASSO-MAVE) for variable selection and estimate semi-parametric single index model (SSIM) at the same time .
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