The aim of our study is to solve a nonlinear epidemic model, which is the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq, through the application of initial value problems in the current study. The model has been presented as a system of ordinary differential equations that has parameters that change with time. Two numerical simulation methods are proposed to solve this model as suitable methods for solving systems whose coefficients change over time. These methods are the Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta method (MMC_RK) and the Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta method (MLH_RK). The results of numerical simulation methods are compared with the results of the numerical Runge-Kutta 4th order method (RK4) from 2021 to 2025 using the absolute error, which proves that the MLH_RK method is the best and closest to the expected values. The results have been discussed after being tabulated and represented graphically. Epidemic behavior for the next two years until 2025 has been projected using the proposed methods.
As COVID-19 pandemic continued to propagate, millions of lives are currently at risk especially elderly, people with chronic conditions and pregnant women. Iraq is one of the countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, in Iraq, there is a need for a self-assessment tool to be available in hand for people with COVID-19 concerns. Such a tool would guide people, after an automated assessment, to the right decision such as seeking medical advice, self-isolate, or testing for COVID-19. This study proposes an online COVID-19 self-assessment tool supported by the internet of medical things (IoMT) technology as a means to fight this pandemic and mitigate the burden on our nation
In this study, the stress-strength model R = P(Y < X < Z) is discussed as an important parts of reliability system by assuming that the random variables follow Invers Rayleigh Distribution. Some traditional estimation methods are used to estimate the parameters namely; Maximum Likelihood, Moment method, and Uniformly Minimum Variance Unbiased estimator and Shrinkage estimator using three types of shrinkage weight factors. As well as, Monte Carlo simulation are used to compare the estimation methods based on mean squared error criteria.
Background: Although underdeveloped in Iraq, telehealth was one tool used to continue health service provision during the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: To assess women’s experiences and satisfaction with gynaecological and obstetric telehealth services in Iraq during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Free telehealth services were provided by 4 obstetrician-gynaecologists associated with private clinics in 2020–2021. All patients who accessed the services between June 2020 and February 2021 were invited to complete a postconsultation survey on their experience and satisfaction with services. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression conducted using SPSS version 25. Results: A total of 151 (30.2%) women re
... Show MoreVaccination is a vital cornerstone of public health, which has saved countless lives throughout history. Therefore, achieving high vaccination uptake rates is essential for successful vaccination programs. Unfortunately, vaccine uptake has been hindered by deferent factors and challenges. The objective of this study is to assess COVID-19 vaccine uptake and associated factors among the general population.
This study is a descriptive cross-sectional study conducted in Basmaia city, Baghdad from June to October 2022. Data were collected through a semi-structured questionnaire using multi-stag
Routing protocols are responsible for providing reliable communication between the source and destination nodes. The performance of these protocols in the ad hoc network family is influenced by several factors such as mobility model, traffic load, transmission range, and the number of mobile nodes which represents a great issue. Several simulation studies have explored routing protocol with performance parameters, but few relate to various protocols concerning routing and Quality of Service (QoS) metrics. This paper presents a simulation-based comparison of proactive, reactive, and multipath routing protocols in mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). Specifically, the performance of AODV, DSDV, and AOMDV protocols are evaluated and analyz
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In this research provide theoretical aspects of one of the most important statistical distributions which it is Lomax, which has many applications in several areas, set of estimation methods was used(MLE,LSE,GWPM) and compare with (RRE) estimation method ,in order to find out best estimation method set of simulation experiment (36) with many replications in order to get mean square error and used it to make compare , simulation experiment contrast with (estimation method, sample size ,value of location and shape parameter) results show that estimation method effected by simulation experiment factors and ability of using other estimation methods such as(Shrinkage, jackknif
... Show MoreCoronavirus disease (Covid-19) has threatened human life, so it has become necessary to study this disease from many aspects. This study aims to identify the nature of the effect of interdependence between these countries and the impact of each other on each other by designating these countries as heads for the proposed graph and measuring the distance between them using the ultrametric spanning tree. In this paper, a network of countries in the Middle East is described using the tools of graph theory.
Many of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem
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