There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
The extraction of Cupressus sempervirens L. or cypress essential oil was studied in this paper. This cypress oil was extracted by using the hydro-distillation method, using a clevenger apparatus. Cupressus sempervirens L. leaves were collected from Hit city in Al-Anbar province – Iraq. The influences of three important parameters on the process of oil extraction; water which used as a solvent to the solid ratio (5:1 and 14:1 (ml solvent/g plant), temperature (30 to 100 °C) and processing time, were examined to obtain the best processing conditions to achieve the maximum yield of the essential oil. Also, the mathematical model was described to calculate the mass transfer coefficient. Therefore, the best conditions, that were obtained in
... Show MoreAn investigation was conducted for the improvement of viscosity index of light lubricating oil fraction (40 stock)
obtained from vacuum distillation unit of lube oil plant of Daura Refinery, using solvent extraction process.
In this study furfural solvent was used to extract the undesirable materials which reduce the viscosity index of raw
lubricating oil fraction.
The studied effecting variables of extraction were extraction temperature range from 70 to 110°C, and solvent to oil
ratio range from 1:1 to 4:1 (wt/wt).
The n-d-M method was used for calculation of carbon distribution and structural group analysis of the raffinate
produced from furfural extraction.
Also the three component phase diagram for a mixed-ba
Noor Oil Field is one of Iraqi oil fields located in Missan province / Amarah city. This field is not subjected to licensing rounds, but depends on the national effort of Missan Oil Company. The first two wells in the field were drilled in seventies and were not opened to production until 2009. The aim of this study is to study the possibility of using the method of gas lift to increase the productivity of this field . PROSPER software was used to design the continuous gas lift by using maximum production rate in the design.
The design was made after comparing the measured pressure with the calculated pressure, this comparison show that the method of Beggs-Brill and Petroleum Exper
... Show MoreAn ultrasonic treatment was applied to the vacuum gas oil at intervals of 5 to 30 minutes, at 70°C. In this work, the improvement of the important properties of Iraqi vacuum gas oil, such as carbon residue, was studied with several parameter conditions that affect vacuum efficiency, such as sonication time (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30) min, power amplitude (10–50%). After ultrasonic treatment, the carbon residue of vacuum gas oil was evaluated using a Conradson carbon residue meter (ASTM D189). The experiment revealed that the oil's carbon residue had decreased by 16%. As a consequence of the experiment It was discovered that ultrasonic treatment might reduce the carbon residual and density of oil samples being studied. It also notice
... Show MoreAs a reservoir is depleted due to production, pore pressure decreases leading to increased effective stress which causes a reduction in permeability, porosity, and possible pore collapse or compaction. Permeability is a key factor in tight reservoir development; therefore, understanding the loss of permeability in these reservoirs due to depletion is vital for effective reservoir management. The paper presents a case history on a tight carbonate reservoir in Iraq which demonstrates the behavior of rock permeability and porosity as a function of increasing effective stress simulating a depleting mode over given production time. The experimental results show unique models for the decline of permeability and porosity as function effective str
... Show MoreOil sector is one of the most important sectors affecting the ecological balance, as activity contributes to the oil companies to influence their working environment, both during the oil exploration and extraction process or during transfer from one place to another process. We will try through this research put an environmental audit program proposal takes into account all the financial aspects, commitment and performance, according to the laws and regulations and agreements as well as relevant international standards, was based on research on the premise that the development of an environmental proposal auditing program that includes environmental controls on oil industry phases which helps reduce or minimize environmental pollutants B
... Show MoreThere are varieties of reasons lead for drilling horizontal wells rather than verticals. Increasing the recovery of oil, especially from thin or tight reservoir permeability is the most important parameter. East Baghdad oil field considered as a giant field with approximately more than 1billion barrel of a proved reserves accompanying recently to low production rate problems in many of the existing wells. It is important to say that presence of of horizontal wells in East Baghdad field especially by converting some of already drilled wells by re-entry drilling horizontal sections may provide one of best solutions for the primary development stage in East Baghdad field which may be followed by drilling new horizont
... Show MoreEfficient and cost-effective drilling of directional wells necessitates the implementation of best drilling practices and advanced techniques to optimize drilling operations. Failure to adequately consider drilling risks can result in inefficient drilling operations and non-productive time (NPT). Although advanced drilling techniques may be expensive, they offer promising technical solutions for mitigating drilling risks. This paper aims to demonstrate the effectiveness of advanced drilling techniques in mitigating risks and improving drilling operations when compared to conventional drilling techniques. Specifically, the advanced drilling techniques employed in Buzurgan Oil Field, including vertical drilling with mud motor, managed pres
... Show MoreMulti-nationalities companies are the main companies in the progressed
countries that improve the current technology and, thus, become the main source of it.
These companies, in the first place, aim to increase the profits of its
investments to satisfy stock holders in the original countries to which these companies
belong.
It is a mean to interfere in the economic of countries especially the growing
ones and exploit their important natural resources. Since this research focus on the
dangers of these companies, mechanism of its work and its dangers on the most
important natural resources of our country which is oil; therefore, the research
confirm that this important natural treasure must be under an Iraqi cont
There are varieties of reasons lead for drilling horizontal wells rather than verticals. Increasing the recovery of oil, especially from thin or tight reservoir permeability is the most important parameter.
East Baghdad oil field considered as a giant field with approximately more than 1billion barrel of a proved reserves accompanying recently to low production rate problems in many of the existing wells.
It is important to say that presence of of horizontal wells in East Baghdad field especially by converting some of already drilled wells by re-entry drilling horizontal sections may provide one of best solutions for the primary development stage in East Baghdad field which may be followed by drilling n
... Show More