There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Nanomaterials have an excellent potential for improving the rheological and tribological properties of lubricating oil. In this study, oleic acid was used to surface-modify nanoparticles to enhance the dispersion and stability of Nanofluid. The surface modification was conducted for inorganic nanoparticles (NPs) TiO₂ and CuO with oleic acid (OA) surfactant, where oleic acid could render the surface of TiO2-CuO hydrophobic. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were used to characterize the surface modification of NPs. The main objective of this study was to investigate the influence of adding modified TiO₂-CuO NPs with weight ratio 1:1 on thermal-physical propertie
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was extraction of jojoba oil using different solvents. A mixture of waterhexane and water-ethanol are used as solvents to extract jojoba oil in a batch extraction process and compared with a pure solvent extraction process. The effects of particle size of crushed seeds, solvent-to-water ratio and time on jojoba oil extraction were investigated. The best recovery of oil was obtained at the boiling temperature of the solvent and four hour of extraction time. When seed particle size was 0.45 mm and a pure ethanol was used (45% yield of oil extraction), whereas, it was 40% yield of oil at 25% water-hexane mixture. It was revealed that the water-ethanol and water-hexane mixtures have an effect on the oil extraction yield. T
... Show MoreAlPO4 solid acid catalyst was prepared in order to use it in transesterification reaction of edible oil after supporting it with tungsten oxide. The maximum conversion of edible oil was obtained 78.78% at catalyst concentration (5gm.), temperature 70°Ϲ, 30/1 methanol/edible oil molar ratio, and time 5hr. The study of kinetics of the transesterification reaction of edible oil indicates that the reaction has an order of 3/2, while the value of activation energy for transesterification reaction is 51.367 kJ/mole and frequency factor equal 26219.13(L/ mol.minute).
Rotating cylinder electrode (RCE) is used . in weight loss technique , the salinity is 200000 p.p.m, temperatures are (30,5060,7080Co) . the velocity of (RCE) are (500,1500,3000 r.p.m). the water cut (30% , 50%). The corrosion rate of carbon steel increase with increasing rotating cylinder velocity. In single phase flow, an increase im rotational velocity from 500 to 1500 r.p.m, the corrosion rate increase from 6.88258 mm/y to 10.11563 mm/y respectively.
In multiphase flow, an increase in (RCE) from 500 to 1500 r.p.m leads to increase in corrosion rate from 0.786153 to 0.910327 mm/y respectively. Increasing brine concentration leads to increase in corrosion rate at water cut 30%.
Asphaltene is a component class that may precipitate from petroleum as a highly viscous and sticky material that is likely to cause deposition problems in a reservoir, in production well, transportation, and in process plants. It is more important to locate the asphaltene precipitation conditions (precipitation pressure and temperature) before the occurring problem of asphaltene deposition to prevent it and eliminate the burden of high treatment costs of this problem if it happens. There are different models which are used in this flow assurance problem (asphaltene precipitation and deposition problem) and these models depend on experimental testing of asphaltene properties. In this study, the used model was equation of
... Show MoreIn this paper, the topic of forecasting the changes in the value of Iraqi crude oil exports for the period from 2019 to 2025, using the Markov transitional series based on the data of the time series for the period from January 2011 to November 2018, is real data obtained from the published data of the Central Agency Of the Iraqi statistics and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil that the results reached indicate stability in the value of crude oil exports according to the data analyzed and listed in the annex to the research.
Keywords: Using Markov chains
The objective of the study: To diagnose the reality of the relationship between the fluctuations in world oil prices and their reflection on the trends of government spending on the various economic sectors.
The research found: that public expenditures contribute to the increase of national consumption through the purchase of consumer goods by the state for the performance of the state's duties or the payment of wages to employees in the public sector and thus have a direct impact on national consumption
The results of the standard tests showed that there is no common integration between the oil price fluctuations and the government expenditure on the security sector through the A
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