There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Purpose – The main purpose of this research is to highlight the main role of strategic leadership skills for top managements in accessing to effective management in accordance with the (VUCA Prime) methodology in (VUCA) environment as Miniature virtual environment, which refers to (Volatility), (Uncertainty), (Complexity), and (Ambiguity).
methodology – To achieve the research objective, this study selected the quantitative approach in research design, Questionnaire was used as the main instrument for data collection, the sample comprised the opinion poll (106) individual who functions as a head department. (Structural equation modelling by (Smart Pls3)
... Show MoreIn this Research, (In2O3: CdO) films were prepared using pulsed laser deposition (PLD) method on glass substrate at room temperature deposited at laser influence 500mJ/cm2with different shoots N= (200,300,400,500and600). the structural, and the optical properties and the films are studied with different annealing temperatures (523and 623) K. Optical measurements and the films were analyzed by UV-VIS absorption spectra. The structural properties of samples were investigated by x-ray diffraction patterns of the films and show that the films and polycrystalline Structure with all shoots. Transmittance spectrum found is equal to 93.17%, refractive index range is 1.635 and energy gap range is 2.75-3.15ev.
Modifying of HY/Zeolite is by loading nickel for applying catalyst in thermal catalytic cracking of furfural extract-40 from the lubricating base oil unit. The study involved the characterizing of HY-zeolite and promoted catalyst with nickel by X-ray diffraction analysis, Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), BET (Brunauer, Emmett, and Teller), and infrared ray analyses FTIR. The catalytic thermal cracking tubular reactor with a fixed bed with two type catalysts; HY/zeolite and Ni HY/zeolite, individually at a temperature of 580oC with LHSV 5h-1 was investigated. The results indicated that increase the conversion of catalytic cracking of furfural extract-40 also increases the yield of useful petroleum
... Show MoreThis study aims to formulate azithromycin oleogel to locally treat skin infections such as acne vulgaris and skin wound infection. Providing a form of azithromycin that can be administered topically is highly desired to prevent unwanted systemic complications including diarrhea, nausea, and abdominal pain. Additionally, it will avoid first pass metabolism, improves patient acceptance, provides an alternative in nauseated patients, decreases the dose by direct contact with the pathological site, and provides a noninvasive and convenient mode of administration. Furthermore, for treating wound infections, the gel will act as a scaffold biomaterial for wound closure besides its antibacterial effect. Herein, we propose the use of grapeseed oil-b
... Show MoreThis paper presents the dynamic responses of generators in a multi-machine power system. The fundamental swing equations for a multi-machine stability analysis are revisited. The swing equations are solved to investigate the influence of a three-phase fault on the network largest load bus. The Nigerian 330kV transmission network was used as a test case for the study. The time domain simulation approach was explored to determine if the system could withstand a 3-phase fault. The stability of the transmission network is estimated considering the dynamic behaviour of the system under various contingency conditions. This study identifies Egbin, Benin, Olorunsogo, Akangba, Sakete, Omotosho and Oshogbo as the key buses w
... Show MoreAndroid operating system, since its first start, is growing very fast and takes a large space in smart devices market. It is built and developed on Linux and designed basically for touch screen devices such as, mobiles, tablets, etc. Mobile devices are markedly complicated and feature-rich; therefore they are prone to reliability of software and performance problems. Because of the small resources, smart devices, such as CPU, RAM, suffer from problems. One of these problems is Software Aging (SA). SA is recognized in long running OSs as a shortage in resources, performance retreating, and finally failure. SA is looked at from two sides, namely the poor response time of application which represents the end user side and the shortage in me
... Show MoreThe bandwidth requirements of telecommunication network users increased rapidly during the last decades. Optical access technologies must provide the bandwidth demand for each user. The passive optical access networks (PONs) support a maximum data rate of 100 Gbps by using the Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) technique in the optical access network. In this paper, the optical broadband access networks with many techniques from Time Division Multiplexing Passive Optical Networks (TDM PON) to Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplex Passive Optical Networks (OFDM PON) are presented. The architectures, advantages, disadvantages, and main parameters of these optical access networks are discussed and reported which have many ad
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Heavy-duty diesel vehicle idling consumes fossil fuel and reduces atmospheric quality at idle period, but its restriction cannot simply be proscribed. A comprehensive tailpipe emissions database to describe idling impacts is not yet available. This paper presents a substantial data set that incorporates results from DI multi-cylinders Fiat diesel engine. Idle emissions of CO, hydrocarbon (HC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), smoke opacity, carbon dioxide (CO2) and noise have been reported, when three EGR ratios (10, 20 and 30%) were added to suction manifold.
CO2 concentrations increased with increasing idle time and engine idle speed, but it didn’t show clear effect for IT adva
... Show MoreA new hetrocyclic liquid crystal compounds containing 1,3,4-oxadiazole with different substituted in para position (Bromo, Chloro, Nitro and Methyl) were synthesized and characterized by melting points, FTIR Spectroscopy and 1HNMR spectroscopy for [Cl-SR6] and [NO2-SR6] compounds. The liquid crystalline properties of the synthesized compounds were studied by using hot-stage polarizing optical microscopy (POM), so they determined the transition enthalpies and entropies by using differential scanning calorimetery (DSC). All of the compounds show mesomorphic properties. The compounds [Br-SR6], [Cl-SR6] and [NO2SR6] exhibit an enantiotropic dimorphism smectic (Sm) phase, while the compounds [MeSR6] showed nematic (N) phase throw cooli
... Show MoreAudio classification is the process to classify different audio types according to contents. It is implemented in a large variety of real world problems, all classification applications allowed the target subjects to be viewed as a specific type of audio and hence, there is a variety in the audio types and every type has to be treatedcarefully according to its significant properties.Feature extraction is an important process for audio classification. This workintroduces several sets of features according to the type, two types of audio (datasets) were studied. Two different features sets are proposed: (i) firstorder gradient feature vector, and (ii) Local roughness feature vector, the experimentsshowed that the results are competitive to
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