There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
The research aims to reveal the impact of media policy in Iraqi media outlets on the level of objectivity in these outlets. A study from the communicators’ point of view where the researcher used a survey method on the communicators in media outlets to reveal the extent of media policies knowledge as well as the pressures exerted by this policy on communicators in media outlets. It also reveals the extent of their commitment to objectivity, neutrality in dealing with information and the way used to transfer it.
The research sample included (179) respondents from communicators in a range of Media outlets such as (Press, Radio, and Television), The researcher was careful with the diversity of the sample, and
In this paper, we study a single stress-strength reliability system , where Ƹ and ƴ are independently Exponentiated q-Exponential distribution. There are a few traditional estimating approaches that are derived, namely maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and the Bayes (BE) estimators of R. A wide mainframe simulation is used to compare the performance of the proposed estimators using MATLAB program. A simulation study show that the Bayesian estimator is the best estimator than other estimation method under consideration using two criteria such as the “mean squares error (MSE)” and “mean absolutely error (MAPE)”.
Recurrent strokes can be devastating, often resulting in severe disability or death. However, nearly 90% of the causes of recurrent stroke are modifiable, which means recurrent strokes can be averted by controlling risk factors, which are mainly behavioral and metabolic in nature. Thus, it shows that from the previous works that recurrent stroke prediction model could help in minimizing the possibility of getting recurrent stroke. Previous works have shown promising results in predicting first-time stroke cases with machine learning approaches. However, there are limited works on recurrent stroke prediction using machine learning methods. Hence, this work is proposed to perform an empirical analysis and to investigate machine learning al
... Show MoreThis research deals with the role that the media can play in spreading awareness, culture and sound behavior among members of society, due to its ability to reach the largest number of individuals; its wide spread within society; and the moral responsibility of the media in consolidating the components of civil peace. The media works on forming intellectual convictions and behavioral attitudes by publishing opinions and ideas, introducing them to people's awareness and enhancing them in the practice of their daily lives, he was its media medium. Sociologists and psychologists confirm that the media. The significance of the research comes due to the broadening of violence and sectarian fighting; the absence of a culture of civil social pe
... Show MoreNeed organizations today to move towards strategic thinking which means analyzing situations faced by particular challenges of change in the external environment, which makes it imperative for The Organization That to reconsider their strategies and orientations and operations, a so-called re-engineering to meet those challenges and pressures, to try to achieve improvement root in the installation of the organization and methodscompletion of its work towards achieving high levels of performance and that is reflected to achieve its objectives, and this is what aims to Current search to deal with implications characteristics of strategic thinking in the stages of application re-engineering business of the company General Industries
... Show MoreThe research seeks to find out the extent of the coverage of the Mosul press to the issues of psychological and social effects of the organization "IS" on the community of Mosul, by analyzing the content of the newspapers “Economic City” and “Mosul News”. As well as to stand at the types of psychological and social effects and their repercussions on the Mosul community including figures, statistics and evidence that were covered in the theoretical study of these topics.
This study is the first scientific diagnosis to reveal the size and types of psychological and social effects of the “ISIS” organization through what was monitored by the Mosul press. The study seeks to draw the attention of officials, decision-m
... Show MoreThe research seeks to identify the proposed scenarios to predict and ward off monetary credit risks that the bank is exposed to in the future, using the banking stress tests model, and showing their impact on capital adequacy and profitability ratio,To achieve this purpose, Sumer Commercial Bank was taken as a case study, and mathematical equations were used to extract the results. Low percentage of profits and returns, strictness in the process of granting credit and financing operations in order to reduce credit risks.
The production companies in the Iraqi industry environment facing many of the problems related to the management of inventory and control In particular in determining the quantities inventory that should be hold it. Because these companies adoption on personal experience and some simple mathematical methods which lead to the identification of inappropriate quantities of inventory.
This research aims to identify the economic quantity of production and purchase for the Pepsi can 330ml and essential components in Baghdad soft drinks Company in an environment dominated by cases of non ensure and High fluctuating as a result of fluctuating demand volumes and costs ass
... Show MoreIn this work, the precursor [2-(1,5-dimethyl-3-oxo-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-pyrazol-4-ylimino)acetic acid] was synthesised from 4-aminoantipyrine and glyoxylic acid, this precursor has been used in the synthesis of new multidentate ligand [2-((E)-3-(2-hydroxyphenylimino)-1,5-dimethyl-2-phenyl-2,3-dihydro-1H-pyrazol-4-ylimino)acetic acid][H2L] type (N2O2). The ligand was refluxed in ethanol with metal ions [VO(II), Mn(II), Co(II) and Ni(II)] salts to give complexes of general molecular formula:[M(H2L)2(X)(Y)].B, where: M=VO(II), X=0, Y=OSO3-2, B=2H2O; M=Mn(II),Co(II) ,X=Cl, Y=Cl, B=0; M=Ni(II), X=H2O, Y=Cl, B=Cl. These complexes were characterised by atomic absorpition(A.A), F.T-I.R., (U.V-Vis)spectroscopies (1H,13C NMR for ligand only), alon
... Show More