There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
The developed financial system is essential for increasing economic growth and poverty reduction in the world. The financial development helps in poverty reduction indirectly via intermediate channel which is the economic growth. The financial development enhancing economic development through mobilization of savings and channel them to the most efficient uses with higher economic and social returns. In addition, the economic growth reduces the poverty through two channels. The first is direct by increasing the introduction factors held by poor and improve the situations into the sectors and areas where the poor live. The second is indirect through redistribution the realized incomes from the economic growth as well as the realiz
... Show MoreThe climate parameters (rainfall, number of rainy days and temperature) data for about seventy years from 1941 – 2009 for three Iraqi meteorological stations (Diwaniya, Nasiriya, and Kut) were investigated and gave good evidence of climate change. As well as the climatic water balance and the climatic conditions were determined at Karbala meteorological station for the years (1982-2015). The annual precipitation for Karbala station-reflect declination from 105 mm for the period 1982-1990 to about 71 mm for the years 2011- 2015 confirms the effect of global climate change. Analyzing Karbala climate parameters reflects that the total annual rainfall is (89 mm), evaporation is (2984 mm), while the mean monthly relative humi
... Show MoreThe reaction of methyldopa with o-vanillin in refluxing ethanol afforded Schiff base and characterized through physical analysis with a number of spectra also the study of biological activity. The geometry of the Schiff base was identified through using (C.H.N) analysis, Mass, 1H-NMR, FT-IR, UV-Vis spectroscopy. Metal complexes of Cr3+, Mn2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+, Cd2+ and Hg2+ with Schiff base have been prepared in the molar ratio 2:1 (Metal:L), (L = Schiff base ligand) except Hg2+ at molar ratio 1:1 (Hg:L). The prepared complexes were characterized by using Mass, FT-IR and UV-Vis spectral studies, on other than magnetic properties and flame atomic absorption, conductivity measurements. According to the results a dinuclear octahedral geo
... Show MoreBesides the role of state institutions that come in the forefront of their priorities and obligations to provide security and development of the economy and reduce the unemployment rate and the reduction of inflation and improving education, health and others, the Community Partnership At frames what has become known as the institutions of society civil-with the state does not eliminate the role, but rather complements its role ; it is the role of civil society partner and an extension of the role of the state in the face of challenges and crises, but it may be sometimes a race role in addressing social, political and economic issues of the role played by the state, not complementary.
The highlighting the specificity of the relationsh
The current research aims to investigate the effect of a specimen of Daniel in the acquisition of concepts for the Arabic language curricula material to the students of the third phase of the Faculty of Basic Education Department of Arabic Language. The sample consists of (93) applications and a student of (47) students in the Division (A), which represents the experimental group which studied the use of a specimen of Daniel, and (46) students in the Division (B), which represents the control group, which studied the traditional way. The subject of unified two groups, which subjects the Arabic language curricula which includes six chapters.
The duration of the experiment is a full semester. The researchers also prepared a tool for mea
The aim of the research is to assess the practice of tax administration to diminish the strategic direction of (proactive, analytical, defensive, response) and the nature of its relationship to organizational excellence represented by (leadership, strategic planning, focus on taxpayers, information and analysis and knowledge management, focus on operations, focus on forces. The questionnaire was adopted as a main tool in collecting data and information from the sample members of the General Authority for Taxes (110) who are in the site (m. Second Division Manager, Ms The statistical program (SPSS) was used to calculate (mean, standard deviation, difference coefficient, correlation coefficient, t-test). The research reached a number
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The aim of the research to define the concept of moral intelligence and its dimensions and its relationship to some personal characteristics with the internal auditors and identify the importance of the employment of moral intelligence dimensions of (empathy, conscience, self- control, respect, kindness, tolerance, fairness) in the internal audit and the extent of support for the performance of the internal audit process in light of these dimensions. And that by answering the following question : Is there a role for moral intelligence of internal auditors in support the performance of internal audit process ? How are employ these dimensions i
... Show MoreThe division partitioning technique has been used to analyze the four electron systems into six-pairs electronic wave functions for ( for the Beryllium atom in its excited state (1s2 2s 3s ) and like ions ( B+1 ,C+2 ) using Hartree-Fock wave functions . The aim of this work is to study atomic scattering form factor f(s) for and nuclear magnetic shielding constant. The results are obtained numerically by using the computer software (Mathcad).
The research aimed at identifying the effect of the think, pair, and share strategy by using educational movies on learning jumping opened legs and closed legs skills on vault in artistic gymnastics for women. It also aimed at identifying the group that learned better the skills understudy. The researcher used the experimental method on second-grade College of Physical Education and Sport Sciences female students. Twelve female students were selected from each of the two sections to form the subjects of the study. The main program was applied for eight weeks with one learning session per week. The data was collected and treated using SPSS to conclude that the think, pair, and share strategy and the traditional program have positive effects
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