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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Pre-Planning of Casing Seat Position to Choose Optimum Equivalent Circulation Density to prevent lost circulation
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Loss of drilling fluid in the Nasiriyah oil field can be considered as a big,
serious, and expensive problem at the same time, therefore accurate and integrated
program must be prepared before start drilling in layers that are likely to get loss
circulation. From the available data of well Ns-13, the area of loss was detected in
five layers, which are Dammam, Um- radoma, Tayarat, Shiranish and Hartha since
these layers contain natural cracks and high porosity represented by vugs.
Methods of prevention have been identified by specifying the minimum values
of drilling parameters to reduce hydrostatic pressure, thus reducing equivalent
density of drilling mud during the circulation, depths of casing shoes is
deter

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Chemical Differentiation and Antimicrobial Potential of Four Brassica napus L Seed Oils
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The conducted study compares the phytochemical and the antimicrobial potential of four varieties of Brassica napus seed oils. The plant seeds were cultivated during the winter growing season. Soxhlet extractor and Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometer (GC-MS) were used for essential oil analysis. The micro broth dilution
assay was applied to test the antimicrobial potential (MIC: Minimum inhibitory concentration, MBC: Minimum bactericidal concentration) of the extracted essential oils against different bacterial strains. A total of 56 phytochemicals were found, including 23 and 25 compounds in the oils of Pactol and Rapifera seed varieties,
respectively, and 21 compounds in each of Bacara and Rally seed oils. Oleic acid constituted

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Biological and physiological effects of Coriandrum sativum on House fly Musca domestica (Diptera: Muscidae)
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This Study is conducted to evaluate effects of (leaves, fruits) powder and (oil, alcohol) extract of Coriander (Coriandrum sativum) plant on some biological and physiological aspects of House fly, Musca domestica at laboratory conditions. Result show that these preparations caused biological effects represented in high dead percentage in second instar, fed on different concentrations of food treated with them reached to 27.6, 55.3 at concentration 20% of leaf and fruit powder respectively and 67.3, 77.2% at 10% of oil and alcohol extract of fruit, respectively. Furthermore, study also show reduction in pupation and adults emergence percentage. However, leafs powder had slighter effect than powder and extract of fruit of tested plant. The st

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 26 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Influence of WS2 Nanoparticles Lubricants on Physical Characteristics of Wrought Aluminium Alloys
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The present study considers an influence of WS2 nanoparticles lubricants on physical characteristics of wrought Aluminium alloys. It is investigated parameters-performance relationship via tribological pin-on-disc tests, the pin is made of Aluminium alloys and the disk is made of AISI.1045, and the humidity was 70%. Oils with WS2 nanoparticles and without them reveal the loss rate of wear. In this study, the coefficient of friction (CoF) is reduced from 0.27 to 0.22 and the wear rate decreased from 0.128 x 10-6 Nm-1 to 0.107 x 10-6 Nm-1 at a load of 20 N. All worn surfaces were typically three types in wear mechanisms such as adhesive, abrasive, and oxidative wear. In addi

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Biostratigraphy of the Early Cretaceous Mauddud Formation in Ratawi Oilfield, Basrah Governorate, Southern Iraq
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      The biostratigraphy of the Early Cretaceous Mauddud Formation was studied in the Ratawi Oilfield, Basra Governorate, southern Iraq, using integrated borehole data set (core and cutting samples and well logs) in two drilled wells to analyze the biostratigraphy of the formation.  One hundred eighty-three slides for both selected wells were investigated. The formation is composed of light grey dolomitized limestone and pseudo-oolitic creamy limestone with green to bluish shale. Three biozones were discriminated, these are: Orbitolina qatarica range zone; Orbitolina sefini range zone and Orbitolina concava range zone. The age of these biozones extends to include the Late Albian (Orbitolina qatarica<

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 24 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Determination local geoid Heights Using RTK-DGPS/Leveling and transformation methods
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Geodesy is concerned with the relative positioning of points and the gravity field of the earth. For this task, a well-defined coordinate system is needed on which measurements are normally tied to a set of reference points called a geodetic datum (geoid or ellipsoid). The Global Positioning System GPS gives accurately the three-dimensional position of a point (latitude, longitude, and ellipsoidal height) and can measure under all weather conditions. The coordinates of the GPS reference to the World Geodetic System1984 (WGS 84), a global ellipsoid having its origin as the mass center of the earth, and height, referenced to the surface of the ellipsoid . In this research , using RTK-DGPS technique Data collection for study local and level

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Concealing a Secret Message in a Colour Image Using an Electronic Workbench
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Steganography is the art of concealing security data in media, such as pictures, audio, video, text, and protocols. The objective of this paper is hiding a secret message in a colour image to prevent an attacker from accessing the message. This is important because more people use the Internet all the time and network connections are spread around the world. The hidden secret message uses two general algorithms that are embedded and extracted. This paper proposes a new algorithm to conceal a secret message in a colour image in LSB. This algorithm includes three phases: 1) dividing the colour image into a number of blocks, 2) concealing the secret message, and 3) transmitting the stego-image from the sender in a multiplexer network and re

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Case Study of Bus Line Passenger Volumes of Bakrajo Bus Lines in Sulaimani City
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Transit agencies constantly need information about system operations and passengers to support their regular scheduling and operation planning processes. The lack of these processes and cultural motivations to use public transportations contributes enormously to the reliance on the private cars rather than public transportation, resulting in traffic congestions. The traffic congestions occur mainly during peak hours and the accidents happening as a result of road accidents and construction works.  This study investigates the effects of weekday and weekend travel variability on peak hours of the passenger flow distribution on bus lines, which can effectively reflect the degree of traffic congestion. A study of passen

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus in High Risk Groups in Nineveh Governorate / Iraq
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Hepatitis B is an inflammation of the liver that caused by Hepatitis B virus (HBV) which is DNA virus that infects the human and some kinds of animals such as chimpanzees and birds. This disease considered as the major disease of mankind and a serious global public health problem. HBsAg, HBeAg, HBcAb, HBeAb and HBsAb are markers used to detect the presence and the stage of infection. The current study included (181) individuals from both sexes, (137) males and (44) females. By ratio 3.11: 1.The mean age of patients 2.4033 ± 0.83519 (range 18-73) years as follows < 20 (11.6%), 21–40 (47.5%), 41–60 (29.8%) and > 60 (11.0%) . These patients are 73 (40.4%) Blood donors from Central Blood Bank, 88 (48.6%) Chronic kidney failure at Ibn –

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
FILTRATION MODELING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN)
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In this research Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique was applied to study the filtration process in water treatment. Eight models have been developed and tested using data from a pilot filtration plant, working under different process design criteria; influent turbidity, bed depth, grain size, filtration rate and running time (length of the filtration run), recording effluent turbidity and head losses. The ANN models were constructed for the prediction of different performance criteria in the filtration process: effluent turbidity, head losses and running time. The results indicate that it is quite possible to use artificial neural networks in predicting effluent turbidity, head losses and running time in the filtration process, wi

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