There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Hydro cracking of heavy oil is used in refinery to produce invaluable products. In this research, a model of hydro cracking reactor has been used to study the behavior of heavy oil in hydro cracking under the conditions recommended by literature in terms lumping of feed and products. The lumping scheme is based on five lumps include: heavy oil, vacuum oil, distillates, naphtha and gases. The first order kinetics was assumed for the conversion in the model and the system is modeled as an isothermal tubular reactor. MATLAB 6.1 was used to solve the model for a five lump scheme for different values of feed velocity, and temperature.
ABSTRACT
This research included the preparation and characterization of new demulsifies from natural and synthetic polymers of chitosan and polyvinyl alcohol that are environmentally friendly and at the same time have high efficacy comparable to emulsifiers. imported foreign. The prepared compounds were examined using infrared spectroscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and all the spectral signals of the polymers were in good agreement with the chemical composition of the polymers. And the melting and decomposition that occur on polymers at high temperatures. The effect of the length and type of side chain in the compositions of polymers on the process of water separation of oil emulsions w
... Show MoreIn this work, a joint quadrature for numerical solution of the double integral is presented. This method is based on combining two rules of the same precision level to form a higher level of precision. Numerical results of the present method with a lower level of precision are presented and compared with those performed by the existing high-precision Gauss-Legendre five-point rule in two variables, which has the same functional evaluation. The efficiency of the proposed method is justified with numerical examples. From an application point of view, the determination of the center of gravity is a special consideration for the present scheme. Convergence analysis is demonstrated to validate the current method.
In this research, a Co-polymer (Styrene / Allyl-2.3.4.6-tetra-O-acetyl-β-D-glucopyranoside) was synthesized from glucose in four steps using Addition Polymerization according to the radical mechanism using Benzoyl Peroxide (BP) as initiator. Initially, Allyl-2.3.4.6-tetra-O-acetyl-β-D-glucopyranoside monomer was prepared in three steps and the reaction was followed by (HPLC, FT-IR, TLC), in the fourth step the monomer was polymerized with Styrene and the structure was determined by FT-IR and NMR spectroscopy. The reaction conditions (temperature, reaction time, material ratios) were also studied to obtain the highest yield, the relative, specific and reduced viscosity of the prepared polymer was determined, from which the viscosity ave
... Show MoreInfertility is a disease of the reproductive system defined by the failure to achieve a clinical pregnancy after 12 months or more of regular unprotected sexual intercourse. Worldwide, infertility affects approximately 15% of all couples trying to conceive. Male infertility is responsible for about 50% of the infertility cases. Chromosomal abnormalities and Y-chromosome microdeletions are the most common genetic causes of male infertility. Klinefelter syndrome (KS) is the most prevalent factor of the chromosomal abnormality in the infertile male. Azoospermia Factor (AZF) microdeletions located on the Y chromosome are one of the recurrent genetic cause of male infertility. This study aims to investigate the prevalence of chromosomal anoma
... Show MoreIn Incremental sheet metal forming process, one important step is to produce tool path, an
accurate tool path is one of the main challenge of incremental sheet metal forming
process. Various factors should be considered prior to generation of the tool path i.e.
mechanical properties of sheet metal, the holding mechanism, tool speed, feed rate and
tool size. In this work investigation studies have been carried out to find the different tool
path strategies to control the twist effect in the final product manufactured by single point
incremental sheet metal forming (SPIF), an adaptive tool path strategy was proposed and
examined for several Aluminum conical models. The comparison of the proposed tool path with t
In this paper, variable gain nonlinear PD and PI fuzzy logic controllers are designed and the effect of the variable gain characteristic of these controllers is analyzed to show its contribution in enhancing the performance of the closed loop system over a conventional linear PID controller. Simulation results and time domain performance characteristics show how these fuzzy controllers outperform the conventional PID controller when used to control a nonlinear plant and a plant that has time delay.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding is an EOR technique in which carbon dioxide is injected into the reservoir to improve the oil recovery. The reservoir oil and rock properties are altered when carbon dioxide interacts with the oil and rock present in the reservoir. Carbon dioxide injection alters the oil and rock properties by causing reduction in oil viscosity, oil swelling and wettability alteration of the rock. This paper will present a proposal to study the wettability alteration in carbonate formations during miscible carbon dioxide flooding. In miscible carbon dioxide flooding, the injection pressure of carbon dioxide would be kept above the minimum miscibility pressure. Thus carbon dioxide is miscible with the oil present in the reservoi
... Show MoreMultilayer reservoirs are currently modeled as a single zone system by averaging the reservoir parameters associated with each reservoir zone. However, this type of modeling is rarely accurate because a single zone system does not account for the fact that each zone's pressure decreases independently. Pressure drop for each zone has an effect on the total output and would result in inter-flow and the premature depletion of one of the zones. Understanding reservoir performance requires a precise estimation of each layer's permeability and skin factor. The Multilayer Transient Analysis is a well-testing technique designed to determine formation properties in more than one layer, and its effectiveness over the past two decades has been
... Show MoreThe field experiment was conducted at botanical garden of Department of Biology, College of Education for Pure Science/ Ibn-Al-Haitham, University of Baghdad to study the effect of Lepidium sativum leaves extract and pumpkin seeds Cucurbita pepo in two concentrations 10% and 20% on physiological characters ofPimpinella anisum. The results showed that in either concentration plant heights, dry weight, biological yield, economic yield, weight of 100 fruits, harvest index, absolute growth rate (AGR) were all increased and percentage of oil in fruits as compared with control plants