There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
In the present study, a pressure drop technique was used to identify the phase inversion point of oil-in-water to water-in-oil flows through a horizontal pipe and to study the effect of additives (nanoparticles, cationic surfactant and blend nanoparticles-surfactant) on the critical dispersed volume fraction (phase inversion point). The measurements were carried for mixture velocity ranges from 0.8 m/sec to 2.3 m/sec. The results showed that at low mixture velocity 0.8 and 1 m/sec there is no effect of additives and velocity on phase inversion point, while at high mixture velocities the phase inversion point for nanoparticles and blend (nanoparticles/surfactant) systems was delayed (postponed) to a higher value of the dispers
... Show MoreThis study was conducted to describe a protocol for the callus establishing culture of Lavandula angustifolia plant and estimating their content of volatile oil. The quantity of volatile oil callus tissues was compared with that of leaves production. Callus was induced from leaf explants on Murashige and Skoog medium (MS) supplemented with Naphthalene acetic acid (NAA) and Benzyl adenine (BA) in different concentrations. Maximum callus fresh weight was obtained in the combination of 10 mg/L BA and 3 mg/L NAA which reached 18 g after four weeks. The results of this work showed that the quantity of volatile oil from the highest fresh weight callus was 6 ml compared with quantity of 18g of leaves which gave 0.5 ml. Volatile o
... Show MoreIt is estimated that over the next few decades, EOR will be used for the more than 50% of oil production in the US and worldwide. From these, in reservoir with viscositites ranging between 10 – 150 mPa.s, polymer flooding is suggsted as the EOR method. Therefore, there is an upper limit to the recommended range of reservoir oil viscosities for polymer flooding. To address the issue of this limitation of polymer injectivity and pumping efficiency, we propose a novel method. The method involves the use of Supramolecular Systems, which are composed of long-chain aminoacids and maleic acids post complexation. Their unique feature of resersible viscosities allows the operator to overcome
Methods of speech recognition have been the subject of several studies over the past decade. Speech recognition has been one of the most exciting areas of the signal processing. Mixed transform is a useful tool for speech signal processing; it is developed for its abilities of improvement in feature extraction. Speech recognition includes three important stages, preprocessing, feature extraction, and classification. Recognition accuracy is so affected by the features extraction stage; therefore different models of mixed transform for feature extraction were proposed. The properties of the recorded isolated word will be 1-D, which achieve the conversion of each 1-D word into a 2-D form. The second step of the word recognizer requires, the
... Show MoreOne of the wellbore instability problems in vertical wells are breakouts in Zubair oilfield. Breakouts, if exceeds its critical limits will produce problems such as loss circulation which will add to the non-productive time (NPT) thus increasing loss in costs and in total revenues. In this paper, three of the available rock failure criteria (Mohr-Coulomb, Mogi-Coulomb and Modified-Lade) are used to study and predict the occurrence of the breakouts. It is found that there is an increase over the allowable breakout limit in breakout width in Tanuma shaly formation and it was predicted using Mohr-Coulomb criterion. An increase in the pore pressure was predicted in Tanuma shaly formation, thus; a new mud weight and casing pr
... Show Morethe researchers Sought to determine the impact of the customer contact (Within a client contact there are two times, first is the total time required to create a service and within it there is contact time while the second time is the time of client contact ؛ where means a time that records the physical presence of the customer during the process of service) on operations performance by concentrate attention on the cost (labor productivity) and quality (patient ratio to the doctor) and speed (cycle time) and flexibility (the flexibility range) , as well as ruling out variable of innovation because of impossibility to measure this variable in the Specialty Center for Dental in al-alwia due to the center is lacking of mechanisms t
... Show MorePurpose – The main purpose of this research is to highlight the main role of strategic leadership skills for top managements in accessing to effective management in accordance with the (VUCA Prime) methodology in (VUCA) environment as Miniature virtual environment, which refers to (Volatility), (Uncertainty), (Complexity), and (Ambiguity).
methodology – To achieve the research objective, this study selected the quantitative approach in research design, Questionnaire was used as the main instrument for data collection, the sample comprised the opinion poll (106) individual who functions as a head department. (Structural equation modelling by (Smart Pls3)
... Show MoreModifying of HY/Zeolite is by loading nickel for applying catalyst in thermal catalytic cracking of furfural extract-40 from the lubricating base oil unit. The study involved the characterizing of HY-zeolite and promoted catalyst with nickel by X-ray diffraction analysis, Scanning electron microscopy (SEM), BET (Brunauer, Emmett, and Teller), and infrared ray analyses FTIR. The catalytic thermal cracking tubular reactor with a fixed bed with two type catalysts; HY/zeolite and Ni HY/zeolite, individually at a temperature of 580oC with LHSV 5h-1 was investigated. The results indicated that increase the conversion of catalytic cracking of furfural extract-40 also increases the yield of useful petroleum
... Show MoreThis study aims to formulate azithromycin oleogel to locally treat skin infections such as acne vulgaris and skin wound infection. Providing a form of azithromycin that can be administered topically is highly desired to prevent unwanted systemic complications including diarrhea, nausea, and abdominal pain. Additionally, it will avoid first pass metabolism, improves patient acceptance, provides an alternative in nauseated patients, decreases the dose by direct contact with the pathological site, and provides a noninvasive and convenient mode of administration. Furthermore, for treating wound infections, the gel will act as a scaffold biomaterial for wound closure besides its antibacterial effect. Herein, we propose the use of grapeseed oil-b
... Show MoreThis paper presents the dynamic responses of generators in a multi-machine power system. The fundamental swing equations for a multi-machine stability analysis are revisited. The swing equations are solved to investigate the influence of a three-phase fault on the network largest load bus. The Nigerian 330kV transmission network was used as a test case for the study. The time domain simulation approach was explored to determine if the system could withstand a 3-phase fault. The stability of the transmission network is estimated considering the dynamic behaviour of the system under various contingency conditions. This study identifies Egbin, Benin, Olorunsogo, Akangba, Sakete, Omotosho and Oshogbo as the key buses w
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