There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Zinc Oxide transparent thin films (ZnO) with different thickness from (220 to 420)nm
±15nm were prepared by thermal evaporation technique onto glass substrates at 200 with
the deposition rate of (10 2) nm sec
-1
, X-ray diffraction patterns confirm the proper phase
formation of the material. The investigation of (XRD) indicates that the (ZnO) film is
polycrystalline type of Hexagonal and the preferred orientation along (002) plane. The Optical
properties of ZnO were determined through the optical transmission method using ultraviolet-visible spectrophotometer with wavelength (300 – 1100) nm. The optical band gap values of
ZnO thin films were slightly increased from (2.9 - 3.1) eV as the film thickn
AlPO4 solid acid catalyst was prepared in order to use it in transesterification reaction of edible oil after supporting it with tungsten oxide. The maximum conversion of edible oil was obtained 78.78% at catalyst concentration (5gm.), temperature 70°Ϲ, 30/1 methanol/edible oil molar ratio, and time 5hr. The study of kinetics of the transesterification reaction of edible oil indicates that the reaction has an order of 3/2, while the value of activation energy for transesterification reaction is 51.367 kJ/mole and frequency factor equal 26219.13(L/ mol.minute).
The Middle Cenomanian-Early Turonian Mishrif Formation includes important carbonate reservoirs in Iraq and some other surrounding countries due to their high reservoir quality and wide geological extension. The 2D models of this study for facies, effective porosity and water saturation indicate the vertical and lateral heterogeneity of the Mishrif Formation reservoir properties in the Majnoon oil field. Construction of 2D reservoir model of the Mishrif Formation to explain the distribution of facies and petrophysical properties (effective porosity and water saturation) by using RockWorks software. The increase of effective porosity is attributed to the presence of shoal facies.The high water saturation is attributed to the existence of rest
... Show MoreBuzurgan oil Field which is located in south of Iraq has been producing oil for five decades that caused production to drop in many oil wells. This paper provides a technical and economical comparison between the ESP and gas lift in one oil well (Bu-16) to help enhancing production and maximize revenue. Prosper software was used to build, match and design the artificial lift method for the selected well, also to predict the well behavior at different water cut values and its effect on artificial lift method efficiency. The validity of software model was confirmed by matching, where the error difference value between actual and calculated data was (-1.77%).
The ESP results showed the durability of ESP regarding th
... Show MoreUsed vegetable oil was introduced to transesterfication reaction to produce Biodiesel fuel suitable for diesel engines. Method of production was consisted of filtration, transesterfication, separation and washing. Transesterfication was studied extensively with different operating conditions, temperature range (35-80oC), catalyst concentration (0.5-2 wt. % based on oil), mixing time (30-120 min.) with constant oil/methanol weight ratio 5:1 and mixing speed 1300 rpm. The concentration of Fatty acid methyl esters (Biodiesel) was determined for the transesterficated oil samples, besides of some important physical properties such as specific gravity, viscosity, pour point and flash point. The behavior of methyl esters production and the physica
... Show MoreThis study assessed the advantage of using earthworms in combination with punch waste and nutrients in remediating drill cuttings contaminated with hydrocarbons. Analyses were performed on day 0, 7, 14, 21, and 28 of the experiment. Two hydrocarbon concentrations were used (20000 mg/kg and 40000 mg/kg) for three groups of earthworms number which were five, ten and twenty earthworms. After 28 days, the total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) concentration (20000 mg/kg) was reduced to 13200 mg/kg, 9800 mg/kg, and 6300 mg/kg in treatments with five, ten and twenty earthworms respectively. Also, TPH concentration (40000 mg/kg) was reduced to 22000 mg/kg, 10100 mg/kg, and 4200 mg/kg in treatments with the above number of earthworms respectively. The p
... Show MoreUsed vegetable oil was introduced to transesterfication reaction to produce Biodiesel fuel suitable for diesel engines. Method of production was consisted of filtration, transesterfication, separation and washing. Transesterfication was studied extensively with different operating conditions, temperature range (35-80o C), catalyst concentration (0.5-2 wt. % based on oil), mixing time (30-120 min.) with constant oil/methanol weight ratio 5:1 and mixing speed 1300 rpm. The concentration of Fatty acid methyl esters (Biodiesel) was determined for the transesterficated oil samples, besides of some important physical properties such as specific gravity, viscosity, pour point and flash point. The behavior of methyl esters production and the
... Show MoreThis study investigates the treatment of used lubricating oils from AL-Mussaib Gas Power Station Company-Iraq, which was treated with different extractive solvents (heptane and 2-propanol). The performance activity of these solvents in the extraction process was examined and evaluated experimentally. Operating parameters were solvent to oil ratios of (1:2, 1:4, 1:6, and 1:8), mixing time (20, 35, 50, and 65 min), temperatures (30, 40, 50, and 60 ºC), and mixing speed (500 rpm). These parameters were studied and analyzed. The quality is determined by the measuring and assessment of important characteristics specially viscosity, viscosity index, specific gravity, pour point, flash point, and ash content. The results confirm that the solve
... Show MoreThis paper discusses the method for determining the permeability values of Tertiary Reservoir in Ajeel field (Jeribe, dhiban, Euphrates) units and this study is very important to determine the permeability values that it is needed to detect the economic value of oil in Tertiary Formation. This study based on core data from nine wells and log data from twelve wells. The wells are AJ-1, AJ-4, AJ-6, AJ-7, AJ-10, AJ-12, AJ-13, AJ-14, AJ-15, AJ-22, AJ-25, and AJ-54, but we have chosen three wells (AJ4, AJ6, and AJ10) to study in this paper. Three methods are used for this work and this study indicates that one of the best way of obtaining permeability is the Neural network method because the values of permeability obtained be
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