There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
BixSb2-xTe3 alloys with different ratios of Bi (x=0, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, and 2) have been prepared, Thin films of these alloys were prepared using thermal evaporation method under vacuum of 10-5 Torr on glass substrates at room temperature with different deposition rate (0.16, 0.5, 0.83) nm/sec for thickness (100, 300, 500) respectively. The X–ray diffraction measurements for BixSb2-xTe3 bulk and thin films indicate the polycrystalline structure with a strong intensity of peak of plane (015) preferred orientation with additional peaks, (0015) and (1010 ) reflections planes, which is meaning that all films present a very good texture along the (015) plane axis at different intensities for each thin film for different thickness. AFM measureme
... Show MoreThis study investigates the potential of biogas recovery from used engine oil (UEO) by co-digestion with animals’ manure, including cow dung (CD), poultry manure (PM), and cattle manure (CM). The experimental work was carried out in anaerobic biodigesters at mesophilic conditions (37°C). Two groups of biodigesters were prepared. Each group consisted of 4 digesters. UEO was the main component in the first group of biodigesters with and without inoculum, whereby a mix of UEO and petroleum refinery oily sludge (ROS) was the component in the second group of biodigesters. The results revealed that for UEO-based biodigesters, maximum biogas production was 0.98, 1.23, 1.93, and 0 ml/g VS from UEO±CD, UEO±CM, UEO±PM, and U
... Show MoreAn optimization study was conducted to determine the optimal operating pressure for the oil and gas separation vessels in the West Qurna 1 oil field. The ASPEN HYSYS software was employed as an effective tool to analyze the optimal pressure for the second and third-stage separators while maintaining a constant operating pressure for the first stage. The analysis involved 10 cases for each separation stage, revealing that the operating pressure of 3.0 Kg/cm2 and 0.7 Kg/cm2 for the second and third stages, respectively, yielded the optimum oil recovery to the flow tank. These pressure set points were selected based on serval factors including API gravity, oil formation volume factor, and gas-oil ratio from the flow tank. To impro
... Show MoreThe Jeribe reservoir in the Jambour Oil Field is a complex and heterogeneous carbonate reservoir characterized by a wide range of permeability variations. Due to limited availability of core plugs in most wells, it becomes crucial to establish correlations between cored wells and apply them to uncored wells for predicting permeability. In recent years, the Flow Zone Indicator (FZI) approach has gained significant applicability for predicting hydraulic flow units (HFUs) and identifying rock types within the reservoir units. This paper aims to develop a permeability model based on the principles of the Flow Zone Indicator. Analysis of core permeability versus core porosity plot and Reservoir Quality Index (RQI) - Normalized poros
... Show MoreKnowledge of the distribution of the rock mechanical properties along the depth of the wells is an important task for many applications related to reservoir geomechanics. Such these applications are wellbore stability analysis, hydraulic fracturing, reservoir compaction and subsidence, sand production, and fault reactivation. A major challenge with determining the rock mechanical properties is that they are not directly measured at the wellbore. They can be only sampled at well location using rock testing. Furthermore, the core analysis provides discrete data measurements for specific depth as well as it is often available only for a few wells in a field of interest. This study presents a methodology to generate synthetic-geomechani
... Show MoreThe faujasite type Y zeolite catalyst was prepared from locally available kaolin. For prepared faujasite type NaY zeolite X-ray, FT-IR, BET pore volume and surface area, and silica/ alumina were determined. The Xray and FT-IR show the compatibility of prepared catalyst with the general structure of standard zeolite Y. BET test shows that the surface area and pore volume of prepared catalyst were 360 m2 /g and 0.39 cm3 /g respectively.
The prepared faujasite type NaY zeolite modified by exchanging sodium ion with ammonium ion using ammonium nitrate and then ammonium ion converted to hydrogen ion. The maximum sodium ion exchange with ammonium ion was 53.6%. The catalytic activity of prepared faujasite type NaY, NaNH4Y and NaHY zeolites
The skin temperature of the earth’s surface is referred to as the Land Surface Temperature (LST). the availability of long-term and high-quality temperature records is important for various uses that affect people’s lives and livelihoods. Much valid information was provided to this research from remote sensing technology by using Landsat 8 (L8) imagery to estimate LST for Al-Ahdab oil field in Wasit city in Iraq. The aim of this research is to analyze LST variations based on Landsat 8 data for 2022 (January, April, July, and October). ArcMap 10.8 was used to estimate LST results. The results values ranged from (about 10 C in January to about 46 C in July). The results show that LS
Oil industry played a major role in delineating the course and type o development in both imported and exported Arabic countries alike where its revenues has perform an essential role in forming programs and plans of development on both national and international level in addition to anticipation of future consuming.
Iraq, as an oil producer country with a revenues –based economy depends on oil in building its economy totally including its infrastructure having a the greatest conformed reservoir which make the government budget depends largely on oil revenues where its strategic importance lies in funding all aspects of expenders as it is considered the prime source of foreign currency. The chall
... Show MoreThe increase globally fossil fuel consumption as it represents the main source of energy around the world, and the sources of heavy oil more than light, different techniques were used to reduce the viscosity and increase mobility of heavy crude oil. this study focusing on the experimental tests and modeling with Back Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network (BFF-ANN) of the dilution technique to reduce a heavy oil viscosity that was collected from the south- Iraq oil fields using organic solvents, organic diluents with different weight percentage (5, 10 and 20 wt.% ) of (n-heptane, toluene, and a mixture of different ratio
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