There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
With the growth of mobile phones, short message service (SMS) became an essential text communication service. However, the low cost and ease use of SMS led to an increase in SMS Spam. In this paper, the characteristics of SMS spam has studied and a set of features has introduced to get rid of SMS spam. In addition, the problem of SMS spam detection was addressed as a clustering analysis that requires a metaheuristic algorithm to find the clustering structures. Three differential evolution variants viz DE/rand/1, jDE/rand/1, jDE/best/1, are adopted for solving the SMS spam problem. Experimental results illustrate that the jDE/best/1 produces best results over other variants in terms of accuracy, false-positive rate and false-negative
... Show MoreFiber optics technology has shown immense applications in the areas of medicine, telecommunication, and imaging. For these particular applications, it requires fibers with precise cleaving. In this paper, we will demonstrate a quick, simple and efficient cleaving method that can result in a high-quality fiber surface that works well for many fiber-optic applications. The smooth tip and good surface quality obtained on the cleaved surface of optical fiber is demonstrated by using a microscope imaging system and was flat surface with a 900 angle for perpendicular cleavages. The precision cleaver provides smooth and high-quality cleaves on single-fiber surfaces as opposed to the ruby scribe pen. The defects that may occur during the cleaving p
... Show MoreAThe Bridge Maintenance Management System (BMMS) is an application system that uses existing data from a Bridge Management System database for monitoring and analysis of current bridges performance, as well as for estimating the current and future maintenance and rehabilitation needs of the bridges. In a transportation context, the maintenance management is described as a cost-effective process to operate, construct, and maintain physical money. This needs analytical tools to support the allocation of resources, materials, equipment, including personnel, and supplies. Therefore, Geographic Information System (GIS) can be considered as one tool to develop the road and bridge maintenanc
The present research aimed to test the imagination of children, and may build sample consisted of (400) a baby and child, selected by random way of four Directorates (first Resafe, second Resafe ,first alkarkh , second alkarkh), in order to achieve the objective of research the tow researchers have a test of imagination and extract the virtual and honesty plants distinguish paragraphs and paragraphs and difficulty factor became the test consists of (32), statistical methods were used (Pearson correlation coefficient, coefficient of difficult passages, highlight paragraphs, correlation equation, an equation wrong Standard) the tow researchers have a number of recommendations and proposals.
The learner has face difficult in learning if not accompanied by strong motivation and directed towards the goals that set for himself,as the type of goals set by the learner for himself is behind the difference in achievement of the tasks and levels of learning, and these goals are directed and determine his behavior Academic in the way of his study and his direction towards the lecture and colleagues.
Current research aims:
- Build tools for thegoal orientations
- Measuring the goal orientations for the university studentsaccording to variables (type/class/specialization).
In order to achieve the objectives of the research, a tool was constructed for the (the Goal orientation), and the psych
... Show MoreThis study investigated the ability of using crushed glass solid wastes in water filtration by using a pilot plant, constructed in Al-Wathba water treatment plant in Baghdad. Different depths and different grain sizes of crushed glass were used as mono and dual media with sand and porcelaniate in the filtration process. The mathematical model by Tufenkji and Elimelech was used to evaluate the initial collection efficiency η of these filters. The results indicated that the collection efficiency varied inversely with the filtration rate. For the mono media filters the theoretical ηth values were more than the practical values ηprac calculated from the experimental work. In the glass filter ηprac was obtained by multiplying ηth by a facto
... Show MoreThe Dagum Regression Model, introduced to address limitations in traditional econometric models, provides enhanced flexibility for analyzing data characterized by heavy tails and asymmetry, which is common in income and wealth distributions. This paper develops and applies the Dagum model, demonstrating its advantages over other distributions such as the Log-Normal and Gamma distributions. The model's parameters are estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the Method of Moments (MoM). A simulation study evaluates both methods' performance across various sample sizes, showing that MoM tends to offer more robust and precise estimates, particularly in small samples. These findings provide valuable insights into the ana
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