There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Isthmus life and prepare for it
Research was: 1- known as self-efficacy when students perceived the university. 2- know the significance of statistical differences in perceived self-efficacy according to gender and specialty. Formed the research sample of (300) students were chosen from the original research community by way of random (150) male specialization and scientific and humanitarian (150) females specialized scientific and humanitarian. The search tool to prepare the yard tool to measure perceived self-efficacy based on measurements and previous literature on the subject of perceived self-efficacy. The researcher using a number of means, statistical, including test Altaúa and analysis of variance of bilateral and results showed the enjoyment of the research s
... Show MoreObjectives: To identify child or family related risk factors for
unintentional childhood poisoning in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq and to suggest
possible causes and preventive measures.
Methods: This is an epidemiological description and a case-control study. The study was undertaken in Sulaymani ,in 2004-2005. Cases were 200 children who were admitted to the hospital for treatment of poisoning. For every case two controls were selected. Al l parents of the children were interviewed by using a questionnaire that incl uded demographic and poisoning characteristic information.<
... Show MoreThe deployment of UAVs is one of the key challenges in UAV-based communications while using UAVs for IoT applications. In this article, a new scheme for energy efficient data collection with a deadline time for the Internet of things (IoT) using the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) is presented. We provided a new data collection method, which was set to collect IoT node data by providing an efficient deployment and mobility of multiple UAV, used to collect data from ground internet of things devices in a given deadline time. In the proposed method, data collection was done with minimum energy consumption of IoTs as well as UAVs. In order to find an optimal solution to this problem, we will first provide a mixed integer linear programming m
... Show MoreThe current research aims to find out the extent to which students of the Faculty of Education for Pure Sciences\/Ibn al-Haitham have owned laboratory academic skills, the researcher adopted a descriptive research approach to conform to the goal of the research, the research sample the consisted of 140 students from the Department of Chemistry Phase II, The research tool, which consisted of a measure of laboratory academic skills, which consisted of seven skills and consisted of 28 paragraphs (four paragraphs per field), was prepared and the pent-up scale was chosen because the selected sample were university students, and the results showed the ownership of students' skills of laboratory academic skills other than skill The use of the libr
... Show MoreThe Khor Mor gas-condensate processing plant in Iraq is currently facing operational challenges due to foaming issues in the sweetening tower caused by high-soluble hydrocarbon liquids entering the tower. The root cause of the problem could be liquid carry-over as the separation vessels within the plant fail to remove liquid droplets from the gas phase. This study employs Aspen HYSYS v.11 software to investigate the performance of the industrial three-phase horizontal separator, Bravo #2, located upstream of the Khor Mor sweetening tower, under both current and future operational conditions. The simulation results, regarding the size distribution of liquid droplets in the gas product and the efficiency gas/liquid separation, r
... Show MoreThe levels of shooting in basketball not very good appears un healthy phenomenon for age stages especially youth players on Iraq and therefore there is lower level in skills especially shooting that seems the players represent their players not good levels which cause difficult in choosing players for youth national team. The research sample were youth teams in Baghdad for season 2012-2013 their birth 1996 and the number teams (7) and after getting results and treat it statically the important ones were : there is a large number of failure attempts on success ones in basic shooting in basketball for youth teams in Baghdad teams (2012-2013) season and basic shooting have effective participation (positive relation) in youth teams ranking in B
... Show MoreWeibull distribution is considered as one of the most widely distribution applied in real life, Its similar to normal distribution in the way of applications, it's also considered as one of the distributions that can applied in many fields such as industrial engineering to represent replaced and manufacturing time ,weather forecasting, and other scientific uses in reliability studies and survival function in medical and communication engineering fields.
In this paper, The scale parameter has been estimated for weibull distribution using Bayesian method based on Jeffery prior information as a first method , then enhanced by improving Jeffery prior information and then used as a se
... Show MoreThis deals with estimation of Reliability function and one shape parameter (?) of two- parameters Burr – XII , when ?(shape parameter is known) (?=0.5,1,1.5) and also the initial values of (?=1), while different sample shze n= 10, 20, 30, 50) bare used. The results depend on empirical study through simulation experiments are applied to compare the four methods of estimation, as well as computing the reliability function . The results of Mean square error indicates that Jacknif estimator is better than other three estimators , for all sample size and parameter values