There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Abstract
This research presents a on-line cognitive tuning control algorithm for the nonlinear controller of path-tracking for dynamic wheeled mobile robot to stabilize and follow a continuous reference path with minimum tracking pose error. The goal of the proposed structure of a hybrid (Bees-PSO) algorithm is to find and tune the values of the control gains of the nonlinear (neural and back-stepping method) controllers as a simple on-line with fast tuning techniques in order to obtain the best torques actions of the wheels for the cart mobile robot from the proposed two controllers. Simulation results (Matlab Package 2012a) show that the nonlinear neural controller with hybrid Bees-PSO cognitive algorithm is m
... Show MoreAn impressed current cathodic protection system (ICCP) requires measurements of extremely low-level quantities of its electrical characteristics. The current experimental work utilized the Adafruit INA219 sensor module for acquiring the values for voltage, current, and power of a default load, which consumes quite low power and simulates an ICCP system. The main problem is the adaptation of the INA219 sensor to the LabVIEW environment due to the absence of the library of this sensor. This work is devoted to the adaptation of the Adafruit INA219 sensor module in the LabVIEW environment through creating, developing, and successfully testing a Sub VI to be ready for employment in an ICCP system. The sensor output was monitored with an Ardui
... Show MoreFlow-production systems whose pieces are connected in a row may not have maintenance scheduling procedures fixed because problems occur at different times (electricity plants, cement plants, water desalination plants). Contemporary software and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are used to fulfill the research objectives by developing a predictive maintenance program. The data of the fifth thermal unit of the power station for the electricity of Al Dora/Baghdad are used in this study. Three stages of research were conducted. First, missing data without temporal sequences were processed. The data were filled using time series hour after hour and the times were filled as system working hours, making the volume of the data relativel
... Show MoreThis paper presents a robust algorithm for the assessment of risk priority for medical equipment based on the calculation of static and dynamic risk factors and Kohnen Self Organization Maps (SOM). Four risk parameters have been calculated for 345 medical devices in two general hospitals in Baghdad. Static risk factor components (equipment function and physical risk) and dynamics risk components (maintenance requirements and risk points) have been calculated. These risk components are used as an input to the unsupervised Kohonen self organization maps. The accuracy of the network was found to be equal to 98% for the proposed system. We conclude that the proposed model gives fast and accurate assessment for risk priority and it works as p
... Show MoreThe tactical side in application of offensive plans in basketball did not take a large in scientific research because it always change because it related in mental ability of players and for the condition of the game and researchers notice that from their followed a lot of games for Duhok basketball club in Iraq league. There is a problem that connected in games results it clears in weakness in application of offensive plans in all kind (man to man & zone defense & side ball plans & under basketball and half court). The goal of study concentrate by designing a sheet for som offensive plans for study and analysis to Duhok club on Asian Championship 2011 at the base the sample contained (Iraq Duhok & application science Jordan & Lebanon sport
... Show MoreThe OpenStreetMap (OSM) project aims to establish a free geospatial database for the entire world which is editable by international volunteers. The OSM database contains a wide range of different types of geographical data and characteristics, including highways, buildings, and land use regions. The varying scientific backgrounds of the volunteers can affect the quality of the spatial data that is produced and shared on the internet as an OSM dataset. This study aims to compare the completeness and attribute accuracy of the OSM road networks with the data supplied by a digitizing process for areas in the Baghdad and Thi-Qar governorates. The analyses are primarily based on calculating the portion of the commission (extr
... Show MoreThe OpenStreetMap (OSM) project aims to establish a free geospatial database for the entire world which is editable by international volunteers. The OSM database contains a wide range of different types of geographical data and characteristics, including highways, buildings, and land use regions. The varying scientific backgrounds of the volunteers can affect the quality of the spatial data that is produced and shared on the internet as an OSM dataset. This study aims to compare the completeness and attribute accuracy of the OSM road networks with the data supplied by a digitizing process for areas in the Baghdad and Thi-Qar governorates. The analyses are primarily based on calculating the portion of the commission (extra road) and
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to design a proposed model for a document to insure the mistakes of the medical profession in estimating the compensation for medical errors. The medical profession is an honest profession aimed primarily at serving human and human beings. In this case, the doctor may be subject to error and error , And the research has adopted the descriptive approach and the research reached several conclusions, the most prominent of which is no one to bear the responsibility of medical error, although the responsibility shared and the doctor contributes to them, doctors do not deal with patients according to their educational level and cultural and there are some doctors do not inform patients The absence of a document to insu
... Show MoreCryptosporidiosis is mainly cause a persistent diarrhea in immune compromised patients, BALB/c mice have been suppressed by dexamethasone, tissue Th1, Th2 and Th17 cytokines concentrations in the ileum were significantly diminished in both infected and immunosuppressed mice. Level of IFN-g, TNF-a, IL-12, IL-6, IL-17A was increased in level, IL-4 didn’t increases, in both ileal and spleen tissue. Levels of above cytokines were examined in spleen in order to follow the proliferation of CD4+ T-cell during C. parvum infection.