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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Comparison of the Suggested loss Function with Generalized Loss Function for One Parameter Inverse Rayleigh Distribution
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The experiences in the life are considered important for many fields, such as industry, medical and others. In literature, researchers are focused on flexible lifetime distribution.

In this paper, some Bayesian estimators for the unknown scale parameter  of Inverse Rayleigh Distribution have been obtained, of different two loss functions, represented by Suggested and Generalized loss function based on Non-Informative prior using Jeffery's and informative prior represented by Exponential distribution. The performance of   estimators is compared empirically with Maximum Likelihood estimator, Using Monte Carlo Simulation depending on the Mean Square Error (MSE). Generally, the preference of Bayesian method of Suggeste

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Trade relations between Iraq and selected Arab countries for the period 2003 -2013
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Ping message focused on highlighting the fact commodity trading in Iraq, and increased exposure to world merchandise trade imbalance, which dominate Iraq's foreign trade major commodity is oil, and therefore the inability of Iraq to control financial revenue as a result of the fluctuations in the international market, the shortage of commodity products will lead inevitably to the weakness in the ability of the local market to meet the internal demand and due to the lack of flexible production machine For agricultural, industrial and economic sectors are responding to changes in the domestic or external demand which will open the door to merchandise imports to invade these markets, since the adoption of the Iraq oil exports,

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Attitudees toward aggresive behaviore for sample of college of education and college of science for womens student: The Attitudees toward aggresive behaviore for sample of college of education and college of science for womens student
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Abstract
The purposes of this study were to identifying the (attitudes of college of
education and college of science for womens in Baghdad university students
toward aggresive behaviore) and to determine the differences of student's
attitudes due to Specialization.
The study sample consists of (460) Female students.Aquestionave of
(59) items was desiged and distributed selected sample after established it's
validity and reliablity.The results indicated that the attitude of Baghdad
University For College of education and college of science students toward
aggresive behaviore were Negative.
The findings revealed that there were statistically significant differences
in the student's attitudes due to special

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 03 2025
Journal Name
Isa Transactions
Optimal hybrid type-3 fuzzy controller for horizontal axis wind turbines: Comparative study
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The blade pitch angle (BPA) controller is key factor to improve the power generation of wind turbine (WT). Due to the aerodynamic structural behavior of the rotor blades, wind turbine system performance is influenced by pitch angle and environmental conditions such as wind speed, which fluctuate throughout the day. Therefore, to overcome the pitch angle control (PAC) problem, high wind speed conditions, and due to type-1 and type-2 fuzzy logic limitations for handling high levels of uncertainty, the newly proposed optimal hybrid type-3 fuzzy logic controller has been applied and compared since type-3 fuzzy controllers utilize three-dimensional membership functions, unlike type-2 and type-1 fuzzy logic controllers. In this paper six differen

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2013
Journal Name
International Journal Of Electrical, Electronics And Telecommunication Engineering
Performance Analysis of xPON Network for Different Queuing Models
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Passive optical network (PON) is a point to multipoint, bidirectional, high rate optical network for data communication. Different standards of PONs are being implemented, first of all PON was ATM PON (APON) which evolved in Broadband PON (BPON). The two major types are Ethernet PON (EPON) and Gigabit passive optical network (GPON). PON with these different standards is called xPON. To have an efficient performance for the last two standards of PON, some important issues will considered. In our work we will integrate a network with different queuing models such M/M/1 and M/M/m model. After analyzing IPACT as a DBA scheme for this integrated network, we modulate cycle time, traffic load, throughput, utilization and overall delay

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Pharmaceutical And Biological Sciences
Fascinating approach for using metabolites products of living microorganisms as reducing agents for preparing silver nanoparticles
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A crucial area of research in nanotechnology is the formation of environmentally benign nanoparticles. Both unicellular and multicellular play an important role in synthesis nanoparticles through the production of inorganic materials either intracellularly or extracellularly. The agents (pigments, siderophores, cell extracted metabolites and reducing compounds) were used to prepare silver nanparticles with different sizes and shapes. The color variations (dark yellow, slightly dark yellow and golden yellow) arising from changes in the composition, size, and shape of nanoparticles, surrounding medium can be monitored using UV-visible spectrophotometer. These effects are due to the phenomena called surface plasmon resonance. The silver nanopa

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Macton's Method for Developing Non-Linguistic Cognitive Sensory Skills for Autistic Spectrum Children
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The present study aimed at identifying the effectiveness of Macaton method in improving some sensory and cognitive skills in autistic children. In order to achieve the aims of the study, the researcher used the experimental method. The present study sample was (10) children whose ages ranged between (7-10) years and were diagnosed medically with autism disorder. The researcher randomly selected the sample and divided it into two groups: the first group consisted of (5) children representing the experimental group, and (5) children representing the control group after extracting the equivalence between the two groups in terms of age, intelligence, economic and social level and the degree of communication. The program was implemented for t

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Visual Interface Design for Evaluating the Quality of Google Map Data for some Engineering Applications
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Today, there are large amounts of geospatial data available on the web such as Google Map (GM), OpenStreetMap (OSM), Flickr service, Wikimapia and others. All of these services called open source geospatial data. Geospatial data from different sources often has variable accuracy due to different data collection methods; therefore data accuracy may not meet the user requirement in varying organization. This paper aims to develop a tool to assess the quality of GM data by comparing it with formal data such as spatial data from Mayoralty of Baghdad (MB). This tool developed by Visual Basic language, and validated on two different study areas in Baghdad / Iraq (Al-Karada and Al- Kadhumiyah). The positional accuracy was asses

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Publication Date
Thu May 12 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Nonparametric Estimator (Histogram) For Estimating Probability Density Function: Nonparametric Estimator (Histogram) For Estimating Probability Density Function
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 In this paper we introduce several estimators for Binwidth of histogram estimators' .We use simulation technique to compare these estimators .In most cases, the results proved that the rule of thumb estimator is better than other estimators.

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Publication Date
Thu May 18 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Experimental Investigation for TiO2 nanoparticles as a Lubricant-Additive for a Compressor ofWindow Type Air-Conditioner
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The coefficient of performance of a window type Air-Conditioner system can be improved if a reduction in the work of compressor can be achieved by a suitable technique. The present study investigates the effect of dispersing a low concentration of TiO2 nanoparticles in the mineral oil based lubricant, as well as on the overall performance of a window type Air-Conditioner system using R22 as the working fluid. An enhancement in the COP of the refrigeration system has been observed and the existence of an optimum volume fraction noticed, with low concentrations of nanoparticles suspended in the mineral oil. Results showed that the average compressor work reduced by 13.3%, which ultimately resulted in an increase of 11.99% in the COP due to

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