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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 16 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
An Evaluation of Olive Oil as a Separating Medium and Its Effect on Some Mechanical Properties of Processed Acrylic Resin Denture Base (A Comparative Study). Part Two
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Background: During acrylic resin processing, the mold must be separated from the surface of the gypsum to prevent liquid resin from penetrating into the gypsum, and water from the gypsum seeping into the acrylic resin. For many years, tin foil was the most acceptable separating medium, and because it's difficult to apply, a tin-foil substitute is used. In this study, olive oil is used as an alternative to tin foil separating medium for first time, and evaluating its effect as a separating medium on some mechanical properties such as (indentation hardness and transverse strength) of acrylic resins denture base comparing it with those processed using tin-foil and tin foil substitute such as (cold mold seal) separating medium. Materials and M

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the performance of some r- (k,d) class estimators with the (PCTP) estimator that used in estimating the general linear regression model in the presence of autocorrelation and multicollinearity problems at the same time "
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In the analysis of multiple linear regression, the problem of multicollinearity and auto-correlation drew the attention of many researchers, and given the appearance of these two problems together and their bad effect on the estimation, some of the researchers found new methods to address these two problems together at the same time. In this research a comparison for the performance of the Principal Components Two Parameter estimator (PCTP) and The (r-k) class estimator and the r-(k,d) class estimator by conducting a simulation study and through the results and under the mean square error (MSE) criterion to find the best way to address the two problems together. The results showed that the r-(k,d) class estimator is the best esti

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Environmental Taxes Effectiveness on controlling The Pollution reduction levels due To the Activity Contracted Foreign Oil Companies in Iraq: An applied research in the general commission of taxes
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     Environmental Tax is deemed as one of the most important tools that can be used to eliminate the problem of oil –based  environment pollution resulted out of oil products processes and this has been significantly approved by the experience in those leading countries in the field of protecting the environment against pollution whereas oil-producing countries which are rather awkward in maintaining the environment such as Iraq , suffer from notorious environmental effects pertaining to oil product processes.

     The problem of the research is represented the increased and constant rise in the volume of the environmental pollutants resulted from the processes managed by the intern

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Theoretical Evaluation of Solar Assisted Desiccant Cooling System for a Small Meeting-Hall
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The performance of a solar assisted desiccant cooling system for a meeting-hall located in the College of Engineering/University of Baghdad was evaluated theoretically. The system was composed of four components; a solar air heater, a desiccant dehumidifier, a heat exchanger and an evaporative cooler. A computer simulation was developed by using MATLAB to assess the effect of various design and operating conditions on the performance of the system and its components. The actual weather data on recommended days were used to assess the load variation and the system performance during those days. The radiant time series method (RTS) was used to evaluate the hourly variation of the cooling load. Four operation modes were employed for perform

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 25 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Synthesis, Structural Study, and Biological Activity Evaluation of VO(II), Mn(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), Zn(II), Cd(II), and Hg(II) Complexes with New Schiff Base Ligand Derived from Pyrazine
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New Schiff base [3-(3-acetylthioureido)pyrazine-2-carboxylic acid][L] has been prepared through 2 stages, the chloro acetyl chloride has been reacting with the ammonium thiocyanate in the initial phase for producing precursor [A], after that [A] has been reacting with the 3-amino pyrazine-2-carboxilic acid to provide a novel bidentate ligand [L], such ligand [L] has been reacting with certain metal ions in the Mn(II), VO(II), Ni(II), Co(II), Zn(II), Cu(II), Hg(II), and Cd(II) for providing series of new metal complexes regarding general molecular formula [M(L)2XY], in which; VO(II); X=SO4,Y=0, Co(II), Mn(II), Cu(II), Ni(II), Cd(II), Zn(II), and Hg(II); Y=Cl, X=Cl. Also, all the compounds were characterized through spectroscopic techniques [

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 21 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
LAS TENDENCIAS MODERNAS EN LA CRÍTICA LITERARIA: EL ESTRUCTURALISMO Y EL FORMALISMO EN LA INTERPRE TACIÓN DE TEXTOS LITERARIOS RECENT TRENDS IN LITERARY CRITICISM: THE STRUCTURAL AND FORMALISM IN THE INTERPRETATION OF LITERARY TEXTS
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El estudio se clasifica dentro los estudios teóricos sobre literatura que se ocupa del estudio de los métodos de la crítica literaria: El Estructralismo literario francés y el Formalismo ruso del siglo XX que se utilizan en la interpretación literaría. Las dos corrientes literarias estudian la literatura como ciencia que busca aplicar un método científico al estudio de la literatura. Dicho estudio trata de exponer las teorías críticas que surgen en el debate de la interpretación de los textos literarios como el de Susan Sontag, Ricoeur Paul y Mijail Bajitin, etc. Además se incluye algunos ejemplos implican el análisis estructuralista y formalista como Kafka y la tragedia Judía. y Sur Racine.

ABSTRACT:

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Measuring and analyzing the impact of financial crises on the main source for financing the public budget in Iraq) *
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    Form recurrence of financial crises phenomenon disturbing and attention , and returns the reasons so that its negative effects were sharp and dangerous , because of the nature and cause of Ncaha , threatened political and economic stability of the countries in which they occur these crises , in addition to Machmlh these crises spread of contagion across multiple channels to include other countries many developed and developing , and the reason for this to the openness of the economic and financial witnessed by the countries affected by crises and other countries concerned, the financial crisis is a case of financial turmoil appears in one of the sections of the financial system one and extends to

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparative Study for Estimate Fractional Parameter of ARFIMA Model
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      Long memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify and estimate the long memory parameter in partially integrated time series. One of the most common models used to represent time series that have a long memory is the ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are a fractional number called the fractional parameter. To analyze and determine the ARFIMA model, the fractal parameter must be estimated. There are many methods for fractional parameter estimation. In this research, the estimation methods were divided into indirect methods, where the Hurst parameter is estimated fir

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of empowerment strategies on the characteristics of work enrichment An exploratory research to the views of a sample of the leaders of the Ministry of Oil in Iraq
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The study aimed to investigate the relationship between empowerment strategies and their impact on the success of enrichment work, it included the dimensions of empowerment strategies (power, knowledge, information, rewards), The dimensions of Job enrichment are (Skill variety, Task identity, Task significance, Autonomy, Feedback). The study was conducted at the headquarters of the Iraqi Oil Ministry in Baghdad and was based on a sample of the leadership of the ministry of managers consisting of 215 people. The data were collected using the questionnaire method based on scientific standards adopted in previous st

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 17 2023
Journal Name
Day 2 Tue, April 18, 2023
Development of a Multi-Completion Gas and Downhole Water Sink-Assisted Gravity Drainage (MC-DWS-AGD) to Improve Oil Recovery and Reduce Water Cut in Reservoirs with Strong Water Aquifers
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Abstract<p>Gas and downhole water sink assisted gravity drainage (GDWS-AGD) is a promising gas-based enhanced oil recovery (EOR) process applicable for reservoirs associated with infinite aquifers. However, it can be costly to implement because it typically involves the drilling of multiple vertical gas-injection wells. The drilling and well-completion costs can be substantially reduced by using additional completions for gas injection in the oil production wells through the annulus positioned at the top of the reservoir. Multi-completion-GDWS-AGD (MC-GDWS-AGD) can be configured to include separate completions for gas injection, oil, and water production in individual wells. This study simulates</p> ... Show More
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