There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
The purpose of the research is to identify the social capital of the Municipality of Samawah Municipality by defining the level of its three dimensions (the structural dimension, the relational dimension and the cognitive dimension) and identifying the appropriate means that contribute to increasing the structural empowerment of the workers in the Municipality of Samawah. Between the social capital and the structural empowerment of the workers. From the perspective of social capital, the researchers examined the correlation and the effect of dimensions (structural, relational, cognitive) on the structural empowerment of the workers and with data collected from a sample of (168) Samawah, which is part of the Ministry of Constructi
... Show MoreThe research amid to measure the extent of the Suggested procedures of the internal control in accordance with the updated COSO framework in improving the procedures for internal control work in Iraqi oil companies. As the research problem was represented in suggesting procedures for internal control according to the updated COSO framework and finding out the relationship of correlation and influence between the suggested procedures and the internal control procedures that are done in the Iraqi oil companies. The research followed the quantitative approach to handling and analysing data by designing a Questionnaire to represent the research tool for collecting data. The study population was represented in the Iraqi oil companies,
... Show MoreThe experiment was carried out in the field of botanical garden belonging to the Department of Biology Sciences, College of Education for Pure Science -Ibn AL-Haitham ,Baghdad University. for the growing season. 2014 -2013 to study the effect of the electromagnetic field which included five different intensities (0,5,10,15,20) MT and three periods of time, namely, (1,2,3) an hour and their interaction on some of the morphological characteristics of the safflower plant . designed experiment by Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) and three replicates per treatment, compared to the average using less significant difference at the level of probability (0.05) , the results showed the following:- 1-Exposing seeds to diffe
... Show MoreThe petroleum sector has a significant influence on the development of multiphase detection sensor techniques; to separate the crude oil from water, the crude oil tank is used. In this paper, a measuring system using a simple and low cost two parallel plate capacitance sensor is designed and implemented based on a Micro controlled embedded system plus PC to automatically identify the (gas/oil) and (oil/water) dynamic multi-interface in the crude oil tank. The Permittivity differences of two-phase liquids are used to determine the interface of them by measuring the relative changes of the sensor’s capacitance when passes through the liquid’s interface. The experiment results to determine the liquid’s interface is sa
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Background: Essential oils extracted from plants have been widely used in antimicrobial activity, particularly the Callistemon viminalis, with a high number of essential oils extracted. Objectives: To identify the chemical composition of essential oil derived from Callistemon viminalis and evaluates its antimicrobial activity against selected bacterial and fungal strains. Subjects and methods: During the study, the antimicrobial activity of different selected essential oils on some bacteria (Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella enteritidis, Staphylococcus aureus, and Streptococcus pneumonia) and fungus (Candida albicans) was evalua |
Buzurgan oil field suffers from the phenomenon of asphaltene precipitation. The serious negatives of this phenomenon are the decrease in production caused by clogging of the pores and decrease in permeability and wettability of the reservoir rocks, in addition to the blockages that occur in the pipeline transporting crude oil. The presence of laboratories in the Iraqi oil companies helped to conduct the necessary experiments, such as gas chromatography (GC) test to identify the components of crude oil and the percentages of each component, These laboratory results consider the main elements in deriving a new equation called modified colloidal instability index (MCII) equation based on a well-known global equation called colloidal instabi
... Show MoreReservoir simulation models are utilized by oil and gas companies with a purpose to develop fields. Expansions and improvements in simulation software have lessened the time to develop a model. Simulating the reservoir aims to realize fluid flow, physical, and chemical procedures happening in a hydrocarbon reservoir adequately well for the reason of improving hydrocarbon recovery under various working stipulations. Grid-orientation effects are complicated problem in numerical reservoir simulation. These influences were coming when utilized of numerical utilization mechanism to conditions characterizing physically inconstant displacement procedure. These impacts happen in an assortment
Binary mixtures of three heavy oil-stocks had been subjected to density measurments. The data had been aquired on the volumetric behaviour of these systems. The heavy oil-stocks used were of good varity, namely 40 stock , 60 stock, and 150 stock, 40 stock is the lightest one with the API gravity 33.7 while 60 stock is middle type and 150 stock is heavy one, with API gravity 27.7 and 23.8 respectively. Stocks with Kerosene or Xylene for non-ideal mixtures for which excess volume can be positive or negative. Mixture of heavy-oil stocks with paraffinic spike (Kerosene) show negative excess volume. While, aromatic rings results a lower positive excess volume, as shown in Xylene when blending with 40 stock and 60 stock but a negati
... Show MoreSadi formation is one of the main productive formations in some of Iraqi oil fields. This formation is characterized by its low permeability values leading to low production rates that could be obtained by the natural flow.
Thus, Sadi formation in Halfaya oil field has been selected to study the success of both of "Acid fracturing" and "Hydraulic fracturing" treatments to increase the production rate in this reservoir.
In acid fracturing, four different scenarios have been selected to verify the effect of the injected fluid acid type, concentration and their effect on the damage severity along the entire reservoir.
The reservoir damage severity has been taken as "Shallow–Medium– Sever
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