Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

A simple , sensitive and accurate spectrophotometric method for the trace determination of bismuth (III) has been developed .This method is based on the reaction of bismuth (III) with arsenazo(III) in acid solution (pH=1.9) to form a blue water soluble complex which exhibits maximum absorption at 612nm .Beer's law is obeyed over the concentration range of 2-85 ?g bismuth (III) in a final volume of 20 mL( i.e. 0.1 – 4.25?g.mL-1) with a correlation coefficient of (0.9981) and molar absorptivity 1.9×104 L.mol-1.cm-1 . The limit of detection (LOD) and the limit of quantification (LOQ) are 0.0633 and 0.0847 ?g.mL-1 , respectively . Under optimum conditions,the stoichiometry of the reaction between bismuth (III) and arsenazo(III) r

Thyroid hormones, triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxin (T4) play an important role in growth, development, and physiology of the kidney. The kidney has a central role in metabolism and clearance of these hormones as well as thyroid – stimulating hormone (TSH). Chronic renal failure (CRF) is a state of irreversible deceleration in renal function results in alterations in internal milieu, which affects the synthesis and secretory rate of hormones. To evaluate the thyroid hormone levels in non-dialyzed patients with chronic renal failure (CRF); 24 patients with CRF aged 30-70 years, mean±S.d. (48.458 ± 13.569) and 48 healthy volunteers who served as controls aged 30-70 years (43.104 ± 12.387) were studied for their thyroid function status u

The objective of the research is to identify the efficiency of risk management in various names at Baghdad International Airport in the face of various risks (financial - technical - human - natural ..) facing the sample of the search of the General Establishment of Civil Aviation and the Iraqi Airways Company where the researcher identified the hypothesis that summarizes There is a significant significant correlation between risk management, risk management and risk review and assessment. The researcher used the means of research from observation and interviews with the relevant officials in this field, as well as used the questionnaire and distributed a sample of 170 employees in the field of risk management (SMS Department) in Iraqi A