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Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. For verifying the goal has been used the simulation technique where has been generated random samples with known parameters and different values of correlation. It has been shown from the computational results that all result has been affected by the values of correlation coefficients used to generate the data, and there is a clear proof and regularity of the sensitivity for Bayesian estimators by Autocorrelation with increase the size of sample.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Standard Study of the Role of the Tourism Sector in Achieving Economic Growth in Tunisia for the Period (1995-2017
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This study examines the relationship between the increase in the number of tourists coming to Tunisia and GDP during the period 1995-2017, using the methodology of joint integration, causal testing and error correction model. The research found the time series instability of the logarithm of the number of tourists coming to Tunisia and the output logarithm but after applying the first differences, these chains become stable, THUS these time series are integrated in the first differences. Using the Johansson method, we found the possibility of a simultaneous integration relationship between the logarithm of the number of tourists coming to Tunisia and the logarithm of GDP in Tunisia, and there is a causal relationship in one direc

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Pharmacokinetic Consideration to Formulate Sustained Release Drugs: Understanding the Controlled Drug Diffusion through the Body Compartment of the Systemic Circulation and Tissue Medium-A Caputo Model
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The aim of this study is to provide an overview of various models to study drug diffusion for a sustained period into and within the human body. Emphasized the mathematical compartment models using fractional derivative (Caputo model) approach to investigate the change in sustained drug concentration in different compartments of the human body system through the oral route or the intravenous route. Law of mass action, first-order kinetics, and Fick's perfusion principle were used to develop mathematical compartment models representing sustained drug diffusion throughout the human body. To adequately predict the sustained drug diffusion into various compartments of the human body, consider fractional derivative (Caputo model) to investiga

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Educational values in the Quran: Surat Luqman and AL- Hujurat model
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The paper has been summarized into the following:
Chapter one: the researcher deals with the problem of the paper, the most important points and the terminology. Chapter two: the researcher deals Surat Luqman from the Aya 12-19 , (the demonstration, the explanations, the values ). In chapter three the researcher deals with Surat AL-Hujurat from Aya 6-12, (the demonstration, the explanations, the values ). Chapter four include (the educational properties for individual and society, the educational applications, and the most important indicators in the texts). Chapter five include the results , the conclusions and the recommendations. One of the basic results that the Quran is a complete educational curriculum, and the texts of Surat Lu

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical Simulation of The Influence of Geometric Parameter on The Flow Behavior in a Solar Chimney Power Plant System
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Numerical simulations have been carried out on the solar chimney power plant systems. This paper gives the flow field analysis for a solar chimney power generation project located in Baghdad. The continuity, Naver-stockes, energy and radiation transfer equations have been solved and carried out by Fluent software. The governing equations are solved for incompressible, 3-D, steady state, turbulent is approximated by a standard k -  model with Boussiuesq approximation to study and evaluate the performance of solar chimney power plant in Baghdad city of Iraq. The different geometric parameters of project are assumed such as collector diameter and chimney height at different working conditions of solar radiation intensity (300,450,600,750

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Certain Assessment of Using MWCNT Nps in Drilling Fluid to Mitigate Stick-Slip Problem during Drilling Operation System
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   Stick- slip is the continuous stopping& release of the Bit/BHA due to the irregular down-hole rotation prompted by the existing relationship between the friction torque and the torque applied from the surface to free the bit.

   Friction coefficient between BHA and wellbore is the main player of stick slip amount, which can be mitigated by support a good lubricators as additives in drilling mud.

   Mathematical (or empirical) solves should be done through adjusting all parameters which supposed to reduce stick- slip as low as possible using different models, one of the main parameters is drilling mud. As per Nanoparticles drilling fluid is a new technology that offers high performance

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Performance measurements of single server fuzzy queues with unreliable server using left and right method
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The fuzzy assignment models (FAMs) have been explored by various literature to access classical values, which are more precise in our real-life accomplishment. The novelty of this paper contributed positively to a unique application of pentagonal fuzzy numbers for the evaluation of FAMs. The new method namely Pascal's triangle graded mean (PT-GM) has presented a new algorithm in accessing the critical path to solve the assignment problems (AP) based on the fuzzy objective function of minimising total cost. The results obtained have been compared to the existing methods such as, the centroid formula (CF) and centroid formula integration (CFI). It has been demonstrated that operational efficiency of this conducted method is exquisitely develo

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 15 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Effect of Aluminum Dust Particles on Plasma Parameters at Different Gas Pressure with Different Dust Contents
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In this work, the effect of aluminum (Al) dust particles on the DC discharge plasma properties in argon was investigated. A magnetron is placed behind the cathode at different pressures and with varying amounts of Al. The plasma temperature (Te) and density (ne) were calculated using the Boltzmann equation and Stark broadening phenomena, which are considered the most important plasma variables through which the other plasma parameters were calculated. The measurements showed that the emission intensity decreases with increasing pressure from 0.06 to 0.4 Torr, and it slightly decreases with the addition of the NPs. The calculations showed that the ne increased and Te decreased with pressure. Both Te and ne were reduced by increasing

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Estimation of the Fracturing Parameters and Reservoir Permeability Using Diagnostic Fracturing Injection Test
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The term "tight reservoir" is commonly used to refer to reservoirs with low permeability. Tight oil reservoirs have caused worry owing to its considerable influence upon oil output throughout the petroleum sector. As a result of its low permeability, producing from tight reservoirs presents numerous challenges. Because of their low permeability, producing from tight reservoirs is faced with a variety of difficulties. The research aim is to performing hydraulic fracturing treatment in single vertical well in order to study the possibility of fracking in the Saady reservoir. Iraq's Halfaya oil field's Saady B reservoir is the most important tight reservoir. The diagnostic fracture injection test is determined for HF55using GOHFER soft

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Fuzzy aggregate production planning by using fuzzy Goal programming with practical application
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Research summarized in applying the model  of fuzzy goal programming for aggregate production planning , in General Company for hydraulic industries / plastic factory to get an optimal production plan  trying to cope with the impact that fluctuations in demand and  employs all available resources using two strategies where they are available   inventories  strategy and  the strategy of  change in the level of the workforce, these   strategies  costs are usually imprecise/fuzzy. The plant administration trying to minimize total production costs, minimize carrying costs and minimize changes in labour levels. depending on the gained data from th

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